A two-week standoff between Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi and Kataib Hezbollah has erupted into a public war of accusations, complicating government efforts to bring the weapons of Iran-backed armed groups under state control.
Tensions flared after leaked intelligence reports accused Kataib Hezbollah of smuggling thousands of barrels of oil extracted from Jurf al-Sakhar, south of Baghdad. The group has controlled the area for nearly a decade, barring successive governments from entering.
On Friday, the government sent a committee headed by the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to investigate the smuggling allegations.
Lieutenant General Saad Maan, head of Iraq's Security Media Cell, said neither political parties nor armed factions were represented on the committee investigating the smuggling of petroleum products in Jurf al-Sakhar.
A senior official in the ruling Shiite Coordination Framework told Asharq Al-Awsat that the investigation into Kataib Hezbollah's alleged oil sales marked the first government move on the ground inside the restricted area controlled by the group.
Iran's patronage
Kataib Hezbollah was founded after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was killed in a US strike near Baghdad International Airport in early 2020 alongside Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The Coordination Framework official said the group's strength and influence could not be understood without examining its ties to its Iranian patron.
Successive governments had largely failed to confront Kataib Hezbollah or enter Jurf al-Sakhar because of the power it drew from its close ties with Tehran, the official said, describing it as the spearhead of factions loyal to Iran's doctrine of guardianship of the Islamic jurist.
Despite a lack of reliable figures on its fighters and weapons, the official warned against underestimating the group's military strength.
Kataib Hezbollah has a sizable arsenal of rockets and drones, the official said, without specifying their types or numbers.
But Iran's financial backing was largely limited to the group's early years, the source said. Over the past few years, Kataib Hezbollah has developed a network of financial interests of its own, potentially including oil investment or theft.
The group also receives substantial funding from the PMF through three brigades under its command.
The official warned that the standoff with al-Zaidi's government had reached a dangerous point, raising serious alarm within the Coordination Framework.
Senior Shiite leaders were working intensively to avert a possible confrontation between the government and Kataib Hezbollah, the official said.
Taking on armed factions
Will al-Zaidi see the confrontation through?
Political analyst Akeel Abbas believes the prime minister has already gone further than any of his predecessors in confronting armed factions over their weapons.
Al-Zaidi has not only openly challenged one of Iraq's most powerful armed groups but also exposed corruption cases in Jurf al-Sakhar, an area of exceptional geographical and political sensitivity, Abbas told Asharq Al-Awsat.
"The decision to confront the group has already been made," Abbas said, although the nature of that confrontation could change as events unfold.
The Coordination Framework's influence over the dispute appears to be waning, he said, with its traditional role as mediator between the prime minister and armed factions no longer as effective as before.
Abbas called the latest standoff a significant development that challenged a long-standing assumption in Iraqi politics: any prime minister who confronted armed factions would be ousted.
US backing and the judiciary
Two factors have strengthened al-Zaidi's hand, according to Abbas: US backing at a time when Iran is grappling with acute weakness and turmoil, and support from Iraq's judiciary.
Together, he said, they have made the difference in the confrontation.
Still, Abbas did not rule out a retreat by the prime minister.
Under current circumstances, al-Zaidi appears to hold the stronger position against Kataib Hezbollah, a striking reversal in Iraqi politics, he said.
But backing down would be difficult for the prime minister, making a political deal between the two sides the more likely outcome as both seek to avoid defeat.
No clear strategy
Ayad al-Anbar, a political science professor at the University of Baghdad, is less convinced by the government's campaign to bring armed groups' weapons under state control.
He questioned whether the government has a coherent strategy for disarming the factions or confronting Kataib Hezbollah.
"The government's strategy for bringing weapons under state control remains unclear," Anbar told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Instead, he said, authorities rely on short-term tactics that shift with events and the reactions they provoke.
There is little sign of a clearly defined plan, with successive steps or contingency options, he said. Government measures trigger responses from armed factions, only for tensions to ease and the escalation to be contained.
Anbar said the same pattern applied to the government's latest pressure tactic: economic pressure.
The confrontation with Kataib Hezbollah and the wider disarmament issue have become exercises in political sparring and shows of force rather than a serious debate over a fundamental problem, he said.
The Iraqi state's fragility inevitably weakens its security system and allows competing centers of power and control to emerge, Anbar argued.
"In a country of political fiefdoms, why wouldn't those with weapons seek to become security fiefdoms themselves?" he asked.
That, he said, explains a fundamental part of the problem.
