US Seeks to Deflate Chinese Balloon Worries

FILED - 04 February 2023, US, Myrtle Beach: Chinese spy balloon is pictured shortly before it was shot down by an F22 military fighter jet over Surfside Beach in South Carolina. Photo: Joe Granita/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
FILED - 04 February 2023, US, Myrtle Beach: Chinese spy balloon is pictured shortly before it was shot down by an F22 military fighter jet over Surfside Beach in South Carolina. Photo: Joe Granita/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
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US Seeks to Deflate Chinese Balloon Worries

FILED - 04 February 2023, US, Myrtle Beach: Chinese spy balloon is pictured shortly before it was shot down by an F22 military fighter jet over Surfside Beach in South Carolina. Photo: Joe Granita/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
FILED - 04 February 2023, US, Myrtle Beach: Chinese spy balloon is pictured shortly before it was shot down by an F22 military fighter jet over Surfside Beach in South Carolina. Photo: Joe Granita/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa

The White House sought Tuesday to take the air out of an escalating diplomatic crisis with Beijing, saying that preliminary evidence suggests three unidentified aerial objects shot down by US jets were not involved in a broader Chinese spy balloon program.

The United States has been in a state of alarm since a huge white balloon from China was spotted tracking over a series of top secret nuclear weapons sites, before being shot down just off the east coast on February 4, said AFP.

In the wake of the incident, the US military adjusted radar settings to detect smaller objects and promptly discovered three more unidentified craft that President Joe Biden ordered shot down -- one over Alaska, another over Canada and the third over Lake Huron off Michigan.

US authorities "haven't seen any indication or anything that points specifically to the idea that these three objects were part of (China's) spy balloon program or that they were definitely involved in external intelligence," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said.

With Congress, the media and the public speculating over everything from a coordinated Chinese spying offensive to aliens, officials are now stressing that the three new objects appear to be neither Chinese nor involved in spying.

Kirby said they "could be balloons that were simply tied to commercial or research entities and therefore benign."

That "could emerge as a leading explanation here," he said.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre acknowledged that the ownership of the three objects remains unknown but "we do want to make sure that the Americans, American people, understand that there's no need to panic."

Beijing denies it uses spy balloons and says the huge craft shot down off the coast February 4 was for weather research, while another spotted over South America was for pilot training.

On Monday, Chinese authorities upped the ante by accusing Washington of sending its own spy balloons over their territory -- something US officials deny.

The spat has already inflicted diplomatic damage between the rival superpowers, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken abruptly canceling a rare visit to Beijing.

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Kirby stressed that China is running a "well funded, deliberate program" to use high-altitude, hard-to-detect balloons for spying on the United States and other countries.

But whether the three latest objects downed were part of that will not be definitively known until the debris is analyzed -- and that is taking more time than US authorities would like.

"It will certainly help us hone in on that if and when we can get the debris," Kirby said.

But due to "pretty tough" weather and geographical conditions in all three cases, "we're recognizing that it could be some time before we locate and recover the debris," Kirby said. "We haven't found them yet."

The next question will be how to calibrate the military's radar shield.

If the three destroyed objects turn out to have been private or otherwise non-hostile aircraft, then the Pentagon will have to decide whether it should be responding so aggressively after every sighting.

An inter-agency security review is underway, Kirby said, and in the meantime there's no reason to expect a similar rate of drama. "I never said there was some sort of blanket policy, that we're just going to shoot things out of the sky."

Asked if Biden had overreacted and should be embarrassed if the three objects shot down turn out to be something innocuous, like weather study balloons, Jean-Pierre said: "I don't think the president should be embarrassed by the fact that he took action to make sure that our airspace, civilian airspace, was safe."



Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
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Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)

Aviation experts said Thursday that Russian air defense fire was likely responsible for the Azerbaijani plane crash the day before that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.
Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan's capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons still unclear and crashed while making an attempt to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea.
The plane went down about 3 kilometers (around 2 miles) from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before smashing into the ground and exploding in a fireball.
Other footage showed part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside down in the grass.
Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims with national flags at half-staff across the country on Thursday. Traffic stopped at noon, and signals sounded from ships and trains as it observed a nationwide moment of silence.
Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.
“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” The Associated Press quoted him as saying.
Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.
As the official crash investigation started, some experts alleged that holes seen in the plane’s tail section could indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was fended off on Wednesday, although federal authorities didn't report it.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the images of fragments of the crashed plane indicate that it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM.
“Much more to investigate, but at high level we'd put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket,” he said.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane's tail reveal the damage compatible with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
“It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.
Matveyev added that it remains unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane was hit.
“Perhaps some of the plane's systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions on landing at another venue in Russia.
Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website with good government connections, also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system as it was approaching Grozny. It questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the apparent drone raid in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya's Security Council, said that air defenses downed drones attacking the region on Wednesday.
Caliber also wondered why Russian authorities didn't allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.
Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”
Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defense fire as unfounded and unethical.
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine it.
According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.