Egypt Confirms Drop in Unemployment

An employee arranges freshly baked flatbread in front of a bakery in the downtown district of Cairo, on March 12, 2023. (AFP)
An employee arranges freshly baked flatbread in front of a bakery in the downtown district of Cairo, on March 12, 2023. (AFP)
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Egypt Confirms Drop in Unemployment

An employee arranges freshly baked flatbread in front of a bakery in the downtown district of Cairo, on March 12, 2023. (AFP)
An employee arranges freshly baked flatbread in front of a bakery in the downtown district of Cairo, on March 12, 2023. (AFP)

Egypt announced that unemployment rates dropped to the lowest in nearly 19 years, citing several international institutions that projected further job growth in the coming years.

The Cabinet Media Center published a report noting a positive change in the international view of the country's unemployment and employment levels.

The World Bank expected unemployment to continue to decline, reaching seven percent, by the year 2023/2024, noting that the impact of the initial shock of the coronavirus pandemic on unemployment has started to recede.

The report reviewed the quarterly unemployment rate in Egypt and stated that it is at its lowest level since 2004.

The unemployment rate reached 7.2 percent in the first, second, and fourth quarters of 2022, 7.4 percent during the third quarter, 7.4 percent in the first and fourth quarters of 2021, 7.3 percent in the second quarter, and 7.5 percent in the third quarter.

The center attributed the decline to state efforts in adopting a national strategy to confront unemployment. The strategy aims to achieve sustainable development plans and work through systematic foundations to address the needs of the labor market, qualify the working cadres and raise their efficiency and readiness.

It quoted the "Oxford Business Group" as saying that Egypt could benefit from its economic potential within the framework of generating considerable and sustainable social benefits, evident through the drop in unemployment rates.

The Group said Egypt needed to reduce unemployment, which reached 12.6 percent in 2016 and should focus on vocational training to prepare skilled workers.

The report reviewed the most important indicators of the labor market, with the labor force increasing by 9.4 percent, or 30.3 million individuals, in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to 27.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2014.

The number of workers increased by 17 percent, or 28.2 million individuals, in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to 24.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Unemployed individuals decreased by 38.9 percent, reaching 2.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to 3.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2014.

The report discussed the most important economic activities contributing to creating new job opportunities, reviewing the most important economic activities to which the most significant number of workers shifted during the fourth quarter of 2022.

Moreover, about 233,000 workers shifted to work in agriculture and forest exploitation, 126,000 to education, 66,000 to electricity and gas supply, and 62,000 changed their occupation to construction.



Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The dollar hit new multi-month highs against the euro and the pound on Thursday, the first day of 2025 trading, as it built on last year's strong gains on expectations US interest rates will remain high relative to peers.

The euro fell to as low as $1.0314, its lowest since November 2022, down around 0.3% on the day. It is now down nearly 8% since its late September highs above $1.12, one major victim of the dollar's recent surge.

Traders anticipate deep interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank in 2025, with markets pricing in at least four 25 basis point cuts, while not being certain of even two such moves from the US Federal Reserve, Reuters reported.

The dollar was hitting milestones across the board and the pound was last down 0.65% at $1.2443, its lowest since April, with its fall accelerating after it broke through resistance around $1.2475.

"It's more of the same at the start of the new calendar year with the dollar continuing to extend its advances in anticipation of Trump putting in place friendly policies at the start of his term," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

US President-elect Donald Trump's policies are widely expected to not only boost growth but also add to upward price pressure. That will lead to a Fed cautious about cutting rates too much further, in turn underpinning US Treasury yields and boost dollar demand.

A weaker growth outlook outside the US, conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war have also added to demand for the dollar.

The dollar also reversed an early loss on Thursday to climb against the Japanese yen, and was last up 0.17% at 157.26.

It reached a five-month high above 158 yen in late December, potentially putting pressure on the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise interest rates early this year, but possibly not immediately.

"If dollar/yen were to break above 160 ahead of the next BOJ meeting, that could be a catalyst for the BOJ to hike in January rather than wait until March," said Hardman.

"Though for now markets are leaning towards March after the dovish comments from (governor Kazuo) Ueda at his last press conference."

Even those who are more cautious about sustained dollar strength think it could take a long time to play out.

"The dollar may be vulnerable – but only if the US data confound market expectations that the Fed doesn’t cut rates more than once in the first half of this year, and not by more than 50bp in the whole of 2025," said Kit Juckes chief FX strategist at Societe Generale in a note.

"There's a good chance of that happening, but it seems very unlikely that cracks in US growth will appear early in the year – hence my preference for taking any bearish dollar thoughts with me into hibernation until the weather improves."

China's yuan languished at 14-month lows as worries about the health of the world's second-biggest economy, the prospect of US import tariffs from the Trump administration and sliding local yields weighed on investor sentiment.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc, another victim of the recent dollar strength, gave back early gains to last trade flat at 0.90755 per dollar.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars, however, managed to break away from two-year lows touched on Tuesday. The Aussie was 0.36% higher at $0.6215 having dropped 9% in 2024, its weakest yearly performance since 2018.

The kiwi rose 0.47% to $0.5614.