OPEC: We Do Not Target Oil Prices, IEA Should be 'Very Careful'

A US Chevron oil tanker is seen at a port in Venezuela. (Reuters)
A US Chevron oil tanker is seen at a port in Venezuela. (Reuters)
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OPEC: We Do Not Target Oil Prices, IEA Should be 'Very Careful'

A US Chevron oil tanker is seen at a port in Venezuela. (Reuters)
A US Chevron oil tanker is seen at a port in Venezuela. (Reuters)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) should be "very careful" about discouraging investment in the oil industry, which was vital for global economic growth, announced OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais.

Ghais warned that such statements could lead to oil market volatility in the future.

He said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, were not targeting oil prices but focusing on market fundamentals.

He warned that finger-pointing and misrepresenting the actions of the oil exporters and their allies was "counter-productive."

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol has been critical of the OPEC+ group's surprise announcement of production cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day (bpd) from May until the end of 2023.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, Birol said OPEC should be careful about pushing oil prices up as that would translate into a weaker global economy.

If anything would lead to future volatility, it is the IEA's repeated calls to stop investing in oil, knowing that all data-driven outlooks envisage the need for more of this precious commodity to fuel global economic growth and prosperity in the decades to come, especially in the developing world, added Birol.

On Thursday, Ghais said blaming oil for inflation was "erroneous and technically incorrect" and that the IEA's repeated calls to stop investing in oil is what would lead to market volatility.

Saudi Arabia also blamed the IEA and its initial predictions for a 3 million bpd fall in Russian production on the back of the Ukraine invasion last year for Washington's decision to sell oil from its reserves.

Russian Deputy Prime Alexander Novak said on Thursday that the OPEC+ group of leading oil producers saw no need for further output cuts despite lower-than-expected Chinese demand but that the organization can constantly adjust policy if necessary.

He stressed that Russia reached its targeted output this month after announcing cuts of 500,000 bpd, or five percent of its oil production, until the year-end.

Russia is part of the OPEC+ group of oil-producing countries that announced a combined reduction of around 1.16 million bpd earlier this month, a surprise decision the US described as unwise.

Novak added that Russian oil and gas condensate production is expected to decline to around 515 million tons (10.3 million bpd) this year from 535 million tons in 2022, broadly in line with a Reuters report this week.

Asked if the group needed to lower its output further because of falling oil prices, Novak replied: "Well, no, of course not because we only made a decision (on the reduction) a month ago, and it will come into force from May for those countries that have joined."

He added that OPEC+ did not expect a shortage in oil supplies in global markets after production cuts, as expected by the International Energy Agency.

Russia maintained its oil production and exports by increasing sales outside of Europe following the severe Western sanctions over the Ukraine war.

Novak said that Russia would this year divert to Asia 140 million tons of oil and oil products that previously would have headed to Europe. He also said Russia would supply 80 million tons and 90 million tons of oil and oil products to the West in 2023.

Meanwhile, oil prices rose on Thursday, recouping earlier losses fueled by fears of a recession in the US and increased Russian oil exports, which offset the impact of OPEC production cuts.

New orders for key US-manufactured capital goods fell more than expected in March, and shipments declined.

US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showing US crude inventories fell last week by 5.1 million barrels to 460.9 million barrels helped to limit the price fall, far exceeding analyst forecasts of a 1.5 million drop in a Reuters poll.

OPEC's share of India's oil imports fell fastest in 2022/23 to the lowest in at least 22 years, as intake of cheaper Russian oil surged, data from industry sources show.

Sources said that oil loading from western Russian ports in April would be the highest since 2019, exceeding 2.4 million bpd, despite Moscow's pledge to reduce production.

Moscow has also increased fuel supplies to Türkiye, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America.



IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.


Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.