Gold Eases as US Debt Ceiling Deal Hopes Support Dollar

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
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Gold Eases as US Debt Ceiling Deal Hopes Support Dollar

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk

Gold prices fell on Tuesday, pressured by a stronger dollar and upbeat equities, even as talks in Washington to lift the US debt ceiling dragged on.

Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,963.56 per ounce by 0444 GMT. US gold futures were down 0.6% at $1,965.20.

The dollar index held firm, making greenback-priced gold less attractive for overseas buyers, Reuters said.

"While a debt-ceiling deal has not been reached yet, comments from (House) Speaker (Kevin) McCarthy... reduced safe-haven buying flows into gold," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

The dollar's momentum, fueled by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, has also been acting as a shackle on gold prices, Waterer said.

US President Joe Biden and Speaker McCarthy could not reach an agreement on Monday on how to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling with just 10 days before a possible default that could sink the economy, but pledged to keep talking.

Keeping gold under pressure, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said there might be a need to go higher on the policy rate. Rising rates hurt demand for the zero-yielding asset.

However, Michael Langford, director at corporate advisory AirGuide, said key risks for gold appear to be easing as Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that it may be time to pause rate rises.

Markets are now pricing in an 84.7% chance of the Fed standing pat on rates next month, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

In the wider financial market, Asian stocks crept to two-week highs, helped by hints of progress towards avoiding a US default and by resilience in Japan's economy, with industrial sector surveys in Europe and the United States in focus later in the day.

Spot silver fell 0.5% to $23.55 per ounce, palladium shed 0.2% to $1,487.67, platinum was steady at $1,067.28.



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
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OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.