Russia's Medvedev Says West Underestimates Risks of Nuclear Escalation

Deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev speaks during a meeting in Moscow earlier this month. | SPUTNIK / VIA AFP-JIJI
Deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev speaks during a meeting in Moscow earlier this month. | SPUTNIK / VIA AFP-JIJI
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Russia's Medvedev Says West Underestimates Risks of Nuclear Escalation

Deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev speaks during a meeting in Moscow earlier this month. | SPUTNIK / VIA AFP-JIJI
Deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev speaks during a meeting in Moscow earlier this month. | SPUTNIK / VIA AFP-JIJI

 

A senior ally of President Vladimir Putin said on Friday the conflict in Ukraine could last for decades and that negotiations with Ukraine were impossible as long as Ukraine's Western-backed President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was in power.

Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine has triggered the deadliest European conflict since World War Two and the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, Reuters said.

Hundreds of thousands of people have died and many more have been seriously injured in the conflict, whose roots date to 2014 after a pro-Russian president was toppled in Ukraine's Maidan popular uprising, Russia annexed the Crimea peninsula and Russian-backed separatists seized swathes of eastern Ukraine.

"This conflict will last for a very long time. For decades, probably. This is a new reality," Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies.

He said Russia could not trust any truce with the current rulers of Kyiv as the conflict would simply erupt again and so the very nature of the current government of Ukraine would have to be destroyed.

Negotiations, he said, with Zelenskiy were impossible.

"Everything always ends in negotiations, and this is inevitable, but as long as these people are in power, the situation for Russia will not change in terms of negotiations."

Medvedev, who cast himself as a liberal moderniser when he was president from 2008-2012, now presents himself as a fiercely anti-Western Kremlin hawk. Diplomats say his views give an indication of thinking at the top levels of the Kremlin elite.

NUCLEAR WAR

Medvedev also warned that the West was seriously underestimating the risk of a nuclear war over Ukraine, cautioning that Russia would launch a pre-emptive strike if Ukraine gets nuclear weapons.

Russia, which has the world's largest nuclear arsenal, has repeatedly accused the West of waging a proxy war with Russia over Ukraine that could mushroom into a much bigger conflict.

"There are irreversible laws of war. If it comes to nuclear weapons, there will have to be a pre-emptive strike," Medvedev said.

Allowing Ukraine nuclear weapons - a step no Western state has publicly proposed - would mean "a missile with a nuclear charge coming to them", Medvedev was quoted as saying.

"The Anglo-Saxons do not fully realize this and believe that it will not come to this. It will under certain conditions."

The West says it wants to help Ukraine win its conflict with Russia, and Western powers have supplied large amounts of modern arms and ammunition to Kyiv. But US President Joe Biden has cautioned that a direct confrontation between the US-backed NATO alliance and Russia would result in World War Three.

Russia says Washington would never allow it to arm a country bordering the United States, and the Kremlin says the West is already essentially fighting an undeclared war with Russia.

When Ukraine gained independence after the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union, it hosted thousands of nuclear weapons. It handed these to Russia under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in return for guarantees of its security and sovereignty from Russia, the United States and Britain.

 



US Vice President Vance Heads to Armenia, Azerbaijan to Push Peace, Trade

US Vice President JD Vance speaks during the Critical Minerals Ministerial at the State Department in Washington, DC, US, February 4, 2026. (Reuters)
US Vice President JD Vance speaks during the Critical Minerals Ministerial at the State Department in Washington, DC, US, February 4, 2026. (Reuters)
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US Vice President Vance Heads to Armenia, Azerbaijan to Push Peace, Trade

US Vice President JD Vance speaks during the Critical Minerals Ministerial at the State Department in Washington, DC, US, February 4, 2026. (Reuters)
US Vice President JD Vance speaks during the Critical Minerals Ministerial at the State Department in Washington, DC, US, February 4, 2026. (Reuters)

US Vice President JD Vance will visit Armenia and Azerbaijan this week to push a Washington-brokered peace agreement that could transform energy and trade routes in the strategic South Caucasus region.

His two-day trip to Armenia, which begins later on Monday, comes just six months after the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders signed an agreement at the White House seen as the first step towards peace after nearly 40 years of war.

Vance, the first US vice president to visit Armenia, is seeking to advance the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a proposed 43-kilometre (27-mile) corridor that would run across southern Armenia and give Azerbaijan a direct route to its exclave ‌of Nakhchivan ‌and in turn to Türkiye, Baku's close ally.

"Vance's visit should ‌serve ⁠to reaffirm the ‌US's commitment to seeing the Trump Route through," said Joshua Kucera, a senior South Caucasus analyst at Crisis Group.

"In a region like the Caucasus, even a small amount of attention from the US can make a significant impact."

The Armenian government said on Monday that Vance would hold talks with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and that both men would then make statements, without elaborating.

Vance will then visit Azerbaijan on Wednesday and Thursday, the White House has said.

Under the agreement signed last year, ⁠a private US firm, the TRIPP Development Company, has been granted exclusive rights to develop the proposed corridor, with Yerevan ‌retaining full sovereignty over its borders, customs, taxation and security.

The ‍route would better connect Asia to Europe ‍while - crucially for Washington - bypassing Russia and Iran at a time when Western countries are ‍keen on diversifying energy and trade routes away from Russia due to its war in Ukraine.

Russia has traditionally viewed the South Caucasus as part of its sphere of influence but has seen its clout there diminish as it is distracted by the war in Ukraine.

Securing US access to supplies of critical minerals is also likely to be a key focus of Vance's visit.

TRIPP could prove a key transit corridor for the vast mineral wealth of ⁠Central Asia - including uranium, copper, gold and rare earths - to Western markets.

CLOSED BORDERS, BITTER RIVALS

In Soviet times the South Caucasus was criss-crossed by railways and oil pipelines until a series of wars beginning in the 1980s disrupted energy routes and shuttered the border between Armenia and Türkiye, Azerbaijan's key regional ally.

Armenia and Azerbaijan were locked in bitter conflict for nearly four decades, primarily over the mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh, an internationally recognized part of Azerbaijan that broke away from Baku's control as the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991.

Azerbaijan and Armenia fought two wars over Karabakh before Baku finally took it back in 2023. Karabakh's entire ethnic Armenian population of around 100,000 people fled to Armenia. The two neighbors have made progress in recent months on normalizing relations, including restarting ‌some energy shipments.

But major hurdles remain to full and lasting peace, including a demand by Azerbaijan that Armenia change its constitution to remove what Baku says contains implicit claims on Azerbaijani territory.


Adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader to Visit Oman on Tuesday

FILED - 06 February 2009, Bavaria, Munich: Ali Larijani, then chairman of the Iranian parliament, speaks at the 45th Munich Security Conference in Munich. Photo: Andreas Gebert/dpa
FILED - 06 February 2009, Bavaria, Munich: Ali Larijani, then chairman of the Iranian parliament, speaks at the 45th Munich Security Conference in Munich. Photo: Andreas Gebert/dpa
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Adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader to Visit Oman on Tuesday

FILED - 06 February 2009, Bavaria, Munich: Ali Larijani, then chairman of the Iranian parliament, speaks at the 45th Munich Security Conference in Munich. Photo: Andreas Gebert/dpa
FILED - 06 February 2009, Bavaria, Munich: Ali Larijani, then chairman of the Iranian parliament, speaks at the 45th Munich Security Conference in Munich. Photo: Andreas Gebert/dpa

Ali Larijani, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, will visit Oman accompanied by a delegation on Tuesday, the ‌semi-official Tasnim news ‌agency reported ‌on ⁠Monday.

American and ‌Iranian diplomats held indirect talks in Oman last week, aimed at reviving diplomacy amid a US ⁠naval buildup near Iran and ‌Tehran's vows ‍of a ‍harsh response if ‍attacked.

"During this trip, (Larijani) will meet with high-ranking officials of the Sultanate of Oman and discuss the latest regional ⁠and international developments and bilateral cooperation at various levels," Tasnim said.

The date and venue of the next round of talks are yet to be announced.


Russia’s Lavrov Sees No ‘Bright Future’ for Economic Ties with US

06 February 2026, Russia, Moscow: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gives a press conference following a meeting with Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Chairperson-in-Office Ignazio Cassis, head of Switzerland's Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, Federal Councilor of the Swiss Confederation, and OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu at the Russian Foreign Ministry's Reception House. (Sofya Sandurskaya/TASS via ZUMA Press/dpa)
06 February 2026, Russia, Moscow: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gives a press conference following a meeting with Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Chairperson-in-Office Ignazio Cassis, head of Switzerland's Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, Federal Councilor of the Swiss Confederation, and OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu at the Russian Foreign Ministry's Reception House. (Sofya Sandurskaya/TASS via ZUMA Press/dpa)
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Russia’s Lavrov Sees No ‘Bright Future’ for Economic Ties with US

06 February 2026, Russia, Moscow: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gives a press conference following a meeting with Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Chairperson-in-Office Ignazio Cassis, head of Switzerland's Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, Federal Councilor of the Swiss Confederation, and OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu at the Russian Foreign Ministry's Reception House. (Sofya Sandurskaya/TASS via ZUMA Press/dpa)
06 February 2026, Russia, Moscow: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gives a press conference following a meeting with Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Chairperson-in-Office Ignazio Cassis, head of Switzerland's Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, Federal Councilor of the Swiss Confederation, and OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu at the Russian Foreign Ministry's Reception House. (Sofya Sandurskaya/TASS via ZUMA Press/dpa)

Russia remains open for cooperation with the United States but is not hopeful about economic ties despite Washington's ongoing efforts to end the Ukraine war, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview published on Monday.

Speaking to Russia-based media outlet TV BRICS, ‌Lavrov cited what ‌he called the ‌United ⁠States' declared ‌aim of "economic dominance".

"We also don't see any bright future in the economic sphere," Lavrov said.

Russian officials, including envoy Kirill Dmitriev, have previously spoken of the prospects for a major restoration ⁠of economic relations with the United States as ‌part of any eventual Ukraine ‍peace settlement.

But although ‍President Donald Trump has also ‍spoken of reviving economic cooperation with Moscow and has hosted his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on US soil since returning to the White House, he has imposed further onerous sanctions on Russia's vital ⁠energy sector.

Lavrov also cited Trump's hostility to the BRICS bloc, which includes Russia, China, India, Brazil and other major developing economies.

"The Americans themselves create artificial obstacles along this path (towards BRICS integration)," he said.

"We are simply forced to seek additional, protected ways to develop our financial, economic, logistical and ‌other projects with the BRICS countries."