What Is the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine - and What Happened? 

This screen grab from a video posted on Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s Twitter account on June 6, 2023 shows an aerial view of the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station after it was partially destroyed.(AFP Photo /Twitter / Account of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy @ZelneskyyUa)
This screen grab from a video posted on Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s Twitter account on June 6, 2023 shows an aerial view of the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station after it was partially destroyed.(AFP Photo /Twitter / Account of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy @ZelneskyyUa)
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What Is the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine - and What Happened? 

This screen grab from a video posted on Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s Twitter account on June 6, 2023 shows an aerial view of the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station after it was partially destroyed.(AFP Photo /Twitter / Account of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy @ZelneskyyUa)
This screen grab from a video posted on Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s Twitter account on June 6, 2023 shows an aerial view of the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station after it was partially destroyed.(AFP Photo /Twitter / Account of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy @ZelneskyyUa)

A huge Soviet-era dam on the Dnipro River that separates Russian and Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine was breached on Tuesday, unleashing floodwaters across the war zone.

Ukraine said Russia had destroyed it, while Russia said Ukraine sabotaged it to cut off water supplies to Crimea and distract attention from a "faltering" counter-offensive.

What is the dam, what happened - and what do we not know?

The Kakhovka dam

The dam, part of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, is 30 meters (98 feet) tall and 3.2 km (2 miles) long. Construction was started under Soviet leader Josef Stalin and finished under Nikita Khrushchev.

The dam bridged the Dnipro river, which forms the front line between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the south of Ukraine.

Creation of the 2,155 sq km (832 sq mile) Kakhovka reservoir in Soviet times forced around 37,000 people to be moved from their homes.

The reservoir holds 18 cubic kilometers (4.3 cubic miles) of water - a volume roughly equal to the Great Salt Lake in the US state of Utah.

The reservoir also supplies water to the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014, and to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which is also under Russian control.

What happened?

Ukraine, which commented first, said Russia was responsible.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Russian forces of blowing up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station from inside the facility, and said Russia must be held to account for a "terrorist attack".

"At 02:50, Russian terrorists carried out an internal detonation of the structures of the Kakhovskaya HPP. About 80 settlements are in the zone of flooding," Zelenskiy said after an emergency meeting of senior officials.

A Ukrainian military spokesperson said Russia's aim was to prevent Ukrainian troops crossing the Dnipro River to attack Russian occupying forces.

Russia said Ukraine sabotaged the dam to cut off water supplies to Crimea and to distract attention from its faltering counteroffensive.

"We can state unequivocally that we are talking about deliberate sabotage by the Ukrainian side," Kremlin Spokesman Peskov told reporters.

Earlier some Russian-installed officials said no attack had taken place. Vladimir Rogov, a Russian installed official in Zaporizhzhia, said the dam collapsed due to earlier damage and the pressure of the water. Russia's state news agency TASS carried a report to the same effect.

What is the human impact?

With water levels surging higher, many thousands of people are likely to be affected. Evacuations of civilians began on both sides of the front line.

Some 22,000 people living across 14 settlements in Ukraine's southern Kherson region are at risk of flooding, Russian installed officials said. They told people to be ready to evacuate.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that up to 80 settlements were at risk of flooding.

Crimea

The destruction of the dam risks lowering the water level of the Soviet-era North Crimean Canal, which has traditionally supplied Crimea with 85% of its water needs.

Most of that water is used for agriculture, some for the Black Sea peninsula's industries, and around one fifth for drinking water and other public needs.

Nuclear plant

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe's largest, gets its cooling water from the reservoir. It is located on the southern side, now under Russian control.

"Our current assessment is that there is no immediate risk to the safety of the plant," International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi said.

He said it was essential that a cooling pond be left intact as it supplied enough water for the cooling of the shut-down reactors.

"Nothing must be done to potentially undermine its integrity," Grossi said.



Iran Scrambles to Swiftly Build Ties with Syria’s New Rulers

A handout photo made available by the Iranian presidential office shows Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (L) during the opening session of the Organization of Eight Developing Countries (D-8) summit in Cairo, Egypt, 19 December 2024. (EPA/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the Iranian presidential office shows Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (L) during the opening session of the Organization of Eight Developing Countries (D-8) summit in Cairo, Egypt, 19 December 2024. (EPA/Handout)
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Iran Scrambles to Swiftly Build Ties with Syria’s New Rulers

A handout photo made available by the Iranian presidential office shows Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (L) during the opening session of the Organization of Eight Developing Countries (D-8) summit in Cairo, Egypt, 19 December 2024. (EPA/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the Iranian presidential office shows Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (L) during the opening session of the Organization of Eight Developing Countries (D-8) summit in Cairo, Egypt, 19 December 2024. (EPA/Handout)

The Iranian government is scrambling to restore some of its influence in Syria as it still reels from the shock ouster of its close ally President Bashar al-Assad on December 8.

The Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is already facing multiple domestic and international crises, including an economy in shambles and continued tensions over its nuclear program. But it is the sudden loss of influence in Syria after the fall of Assad to opposition groups that is exercising Iranian officials most, reported The Guardian on Friday.

“In the short term they want to salvage some influence with the opposition in Damascus. Iranian diplomats insist they were not wedded to Assad, and were disillusioned with his refusal to compromise,” it said.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview this week: “We had long ago reached the conclusion that the continuation of governance in Syria would face a fundamental challenge. Government officials were expected to show flexibility towards allowing the opposition to participate in power, but this did not happen.”

He added: “Tehran always had direct contacts with the Syrian opposition delegation. Since 2011, we have been suggesting to Syria the need to begin political talks with those opposition groups that were not affiliated with terrorism.”

At the same time, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson insisted it only entered Syria in 2012 at Assad’s request to help defeat ISIS, continued The Guardian. “Our presence was advisory and we were never in Syria to defend a specific group or individual. What was important to us was helping to preserve the territorial integrity and stability of Syria,” he said.

Such explanations have not cut much ice in Damascus. Iran remains one of the few countries criticized by Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader.

Short honeymoon

Many Iranian officials are claiming the current victory lap being enjoyed by Türkiye in Syria may be brief as Ankara’s interests will start to diverge from the government led by the HTS.

Senior cleric Naser Makarem Shirazi said: “We must follow the Syrian issue with hope and know that this situation will not continue, because the current rulers of Syria will not remain united with each other”.

The conservative Javan newspaper predicted that “the current honeymoon period in Syria will end due to the diversity of groups, economic problems, the lack of security and diversity of actors.”.

Officially Iran blames the US and Israel for Assad’s collapse, but resentment at Ankara’s role is rife, ironically echoing Donald Trump’s claim that Syria has been the victim of an unfriendly takeover by Türkiye.

In his speech responding to Assad’s downfall supreme leader Ali Khamenei said a neighboring state of Syria played a clear role” in shaping events and “continues to do so now”. The Fars news agency published a poster showing the HTS leader in league with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Benjamin Netanyahu and Joe Biden.

Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations questioned whether HTS would remain allies with Türkiye for long. It said: “Although Türkiye is only one of the main winners of Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power in the short term, Ankara can never bring a government aligned with itself to power in Syria. Even if HTS attempts to form a stable government in Syria, which is impossible, in the medium term, it will become a major threat to Türkiye, which shares an 830-kilometer border with Syria.”

Reliance on Türkiye

Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani predicted a bleak future for Syria and Türkiye. “In recent weeks, all of Syria’s military power has been destroyed by Israel, and unfortunately, the militants and Türkiye did not respond appropriately to Israel. It will take years to rebuild the Syrian army and armed forces.”

Mohsen Baharvand, a former Iranian ambassador to the UK, suggested the Damascus government may find itself overly reliant on Türkiye. “If the central government of Syria tries to consolidate its authority and sovereignty through military intervention and assistance from foreign countries – including Türkiye – Syria, or key parts of it, will be occupied by Türkiye, and Türkiye will enter a quagmire from which it will incur heavy human and economic costs.”

He predicted tensions between Türkiye and the HTS in particular about how to handle the Syrian Kurdish demand in north-east Syria for a form of autonomy. The Turkish-funded Syrian National Army is reportedly ready to mount an offensive against the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces in Kobani, a Kurdish-majority Syrian town on the northern border with Türkiye.

Türkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Wednesday that if the issue were addressed “properly” Ankara would not seek a military intervention. “There is a new administration in Damascus now. I think this is primarily their concern now,” Fidan said.

More broadly, the Syrian reverse is forcing Iran to accelerate a rethink of its foreign policy. The review centers on whether the weakening of its so-called Axis of Resistance – comprising allied groups in the region – requires Iran to become a nuclear weapon state, or instead strengthen Iran by building better relations in the region.

For years, Iran’s rulers have been saying that “defending Iran must begin from outside its borders.” This hugely costly strategy is largely obsolete, and how Iran explains its Syria reverse will be critical to deciding what replaces that strategy.