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IMF Expects Saudi Non-Oil Growth to Average 5%, Current Account to 10-Year High Surplus

Petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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IMF Expects Saudi Non-Oil Growth to Average 5%, Current Account to 10-Year High Surplus

Petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its positive outlook for the Saudi economy, given the non-oil strong growth momentum, which is expected to to grow at an average five percent in 2023.

The Fund indicated that the current account improved to a ten-year high surplus in 2022 amid higher oil prices and stepped-up production.

The current GDP surplus reached 13.6 percent, and some sectors exceeded the targets under Vision 2030.

Currency strength

In its latest Article IV, the Fund said that the "inflation rate remains low and appears to be easing."

It noted that inflation will be contained in 2023, and at "2.8 percent, the average CPI will be slightly higher than in 2022, even though a strong currency, subsidies, and gasoline price cap offset inflationary pressures from diminishing labor market slack and a booming non-oil economy."

The output gap is estimated to have closed during 2022, and the momentum is continuing in 2023, with nowcasting estimates "suggesting non-oil growth above 5 percent in H1 2023."

The fiscal surplus in 2022 -the first since 2013- was halved relative to the staff's initial projection of 5.5 percent of GDP.

It mainly reflects "increases in goods and services and capital spending."

Public debt

At 23 percent of GDP, public debt is low and sustainable, with fiscal space available to address potential headwinds.

The IMF reported that the "exchange rate peg to the US dollar remains appropriate given the current economic structure. It is a policy that has been serving the country well to support monetary stability."

Mortgage loans

The report pointed out that despite the mortgage boom in recent years, banking sector risks from the housing sector are assessed to be limited so far.

It stated that "achieving strong, sustained, inclusive, and greener growth" and implementing the "Vision 2030 reform agenda is continuing unimpeded towards a productive and green economy."

A "mid-way stocktaking of the objectives set under Vision 2030 has identified progress on digitalization, the regulatory and business environment, female labor force participation, and higher private sector investment, in some cases with targets set for 2030 already surpassed."

Renewable energy

The mission "welcomes ongoing plans to increase renewable energy by an additional 2.1 GW capacity by 2024, generate savings through efficiency programs (tarshid), deploy carbon Capture, Usage, and Storage technologies, and become the world's leading hydrogen exporter."

The Fund stated that the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) intervention has helped alleviate liquidity strains as interest rate spreads have now normalized to their historical averages.

The Saudi unemployment rate is at a historical low.

Amid an increase in labor force participation, total unemployment dropped to 4.8 percent by end-2022, from nine percent during Covid, reflecting an increase in Saudi workers in the private sector and expatriate workers (mainly in the construction and agricultural sector) rising back above pre-Covid levels.

The fastest-growing economy

According to the Fund, the Kingdom was the fastest-growing G20 economy in 2022.

"Overall growth reached 8.7 percent, reflecting both strong oil production and a 4.8 percent non-oil GDP growth driven by robust private consumption and non-oil private investment, including giga projects."

The importance of initiatives

Experts pointed out that initiatives and programs undertaken by the Saudi government are essential to developing the non-oil sector, which will positively impact the national economy, expecting it to witness significant growth in the next stage.

Project implementation

Economics Professor Salem Baajaja at the University of Jeddah told Asharq Al-Awsat that the IMF confirmed the rapid growth of the Saudi economy among the G20 economies, considering the Kingdom's plans of Vision 2030 toward a prosperous economy.

Baajaja indicated that Saudi Arabia's domestic product increased by 8.7 percent due to the increase in oil and non-oil revenues together, yet consumer spending increased, reflecting the Saudi economy's growth.

Financial stability

Economic analyst Abdulrahman al-Jubairi explained that the Fund's expectations for the five percent growth projection of the non-oil sector in Saudi Arabia confirm the government's role in diversifying income sources and promoting private sector investments.

Jubairi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Central Bank is making significant efforts to maintain financial stability, raise solvency, and promote technical infrastructure.

He added that the Kingdom could support the banking system due to its large foreign reserves and access to global markets, which reflected positively on the data and indicators of exports from international organizations.

 

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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.

Business

Aljadaan: Emerging Markets Account for 70% of Global Growth

Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
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Aljadaan: Emerging Markets Account for 70% of Global Growth

Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Aljadaan stressed Sunday that the world economy is going through a “profound transition,” saying emerging markets and developing economies now account for nearly 60 percent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in purchasing power terms and over 70 percent of global growth.

In his opening remarks at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, organized by the Saudi Ministry of Finance and the IMF in AlUla, the minister said these economies have become an increasingly important driver of global growth with their share of global economy more than doubling since 2010.

“Today, the 10 emerging economies in the G20 alone account for more than half of the world growth. Yet, they face a more complex and fragmented environment, elevated debt levels, slower trade growth and increasing exposure to geopolitical shocks.”

“Unfortunately, more than half of low income countries are either in or at the risk of debt distress. At the same time global trade growth has slowed at around half of what it was pre the pandemic,” Aljadaan added.

The Finance Minister stressed that the Saudi experience over the past decade has reinforced three lessons that may be relevant to the discussions at the two-day conference, which brings together a select group of ministers and central bank governors, leaders of international organizations, leading investors and academics.

“First, macroeconomic stability is not the enemy of growth. It is actually the foundation,” he said.

“Structural reforms deliver results only when institutions deliver. So there is no point of reforming ... if the institutions are unable to deliver,” he stated.

Finally, he said that “international cooperation matters more, not less, in a fragmented world.”

Business

Georgieva from AlUla: Growth Still Lacks Pre-pandemic Levels

Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Georgieva from AlUla: Growth Still Lacks Pre-pandemic Levels

Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Sunday that world growth still lacks pre-pandemic levels, expressing concern as she expected more shocks amid high spending and rising debt levels in many countries.

Georgieva spoke at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, organized by the Saudi Ministry of Finance and the IMF in AlUla.

The two-day conference brings together a select group of ministers and central bank governors, leaders of international organizations, leading investors and academics to deliberate on policies to global stability, prosperity, and multilateral collaboration.

Georgieva said that the conference was launched last year in recognition of the growing role of emerging market economies in a world of sweeping transformations.

“I came out of this gathering .... With a sense of hope for the pragmatic attitude and determination to pursue good policies and build strong institutions,” she said.

Georgieva stressed that “good policies pay off,” and said that growth rates across emerging economies reached four percent this year, exceeding by a large margin those of advanced economies that are around 1.5 percent.