Probability of Russia's Exit from Grain Deal Remains High

Ukrainian farmers harvest grain in the Odesa region, south Ukraine, 23 June 2023. EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO
Ukrainian farmers harvest grain in the Odesa region, south Ukraine, 23 June 2023. EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO
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Probability of Russia's Exit from Grain Deal Remains High

Ukrainian farmers harvest grain in the Odesa region, south Ukraine, 23 June 2023. EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO
Ukrainian farmers harvest grain in the Odesa region, south Ukraine, 23 June 2023. EPA/IGOR TKACHENKO

The probability of Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal in July remains high, although talks continue, Russia's RIA news agency cited an anonymous source as saying on Wednesday.

Moscow has repeatedly complained that it was not getting what it wanted from the deal which has allowed grain to be shipped out of Ukrainian ports and expires on July 18.

The Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority said on Tuesday that Ukraine must be ready to export grain almost exclusively via its Danube River ports because Russia is effectively blocking Black Sea shipments.

The United Nations and Türkiye brokered a deal between Moscow and Kyiv last July on the safe passage of Black Sea grain to help tackle a global food crisis worsened by Russia's invasion of its neighbor and a blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

Moscow has threatened not to extend the deal beyond July 18 unless a series of demands are met, including the removal of obstacles to Russian grain and fertilizer exports. It says that promises of help with those exports have not materialized.



Western Countries Urge Iran to Immediately Dispose of its Highly Enriched Stockpile

IAEA head Rafael Grossi
IAEA head Rafael Grossi
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Western Countries Urge Iran to Immediately Dispose of its Highly Enriched Stockpile

IAEA head Rafael Grossi
IAEA head Rafael Grossi

While the United Kingdom, France and Germany on Thursday urged Iran to immediately dispose of its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60 %, the UN atomic watchdog's 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution ordering Tehran to urgently improve cooperation with the Agency.

In a joint statement to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors on Iran’s implementation of its nuclear commitments under the JCPoA, France, Germany and the United Kingdom on Thursday called on Iran to halt and reverse its nuclear escalation and refrain from making threats to produce nuclear weapons.

The three countries asked Tehran to return to the limits imposed by the JCPoA, in particular those regarding enrichment.

They said Iran should allow the Agency to install surveillance and monitoring equipment where requested, re-implement and swiftly ratify its Additional Protocol and fully reverse its September 2023 decision to withdraw the designations of experienced inspectors.

On Thursday, the UN atomic watchdog’s 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution again ordering Iran to urgently improve cooperation with the Agency and requesting a “comprehensive” report aimed at pressuring Iran into fresh nuclear talks.

The resolution was proposed by Britain, France, Germany and the United States.

Seen by AFP, it says it is “essential and urgent” for Iran to “act to fulfil its legal obligations.”

The text also calls on Tehran to provide “technically credible explanations” for the presence of uranium particles found at two undeclared locations in Iran.

Moreover, Western powers are asking for a “comprehensive report” to be issued by the IAEA on Iran's nuclear efforts “at the latest” by spring 2025.

No Peaceful Purpose

Meanwhile, Washington's delegation to the Board of Governors said in a press release that “Iran has already amassed a substantial stockpile of highly enriched uranium for which it has no credible peaceful purpose.”

It noted that if Iran is interested in demonstrating the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program, it should do much more than take easily reversible steps.

“It should provide greater assurance, including resuming implementation of the Additional Protocol, and provide full transparency regarding centrifuge component production,” the delegation said in a statement.

Since 2021, Tehran has significantly decreased its cooperation with the agency by deactivating surveillance devices to monitor the nuclear programme and barring UN inspectors.

At the same time, Iran has rapidly ramped up its nuclear activities, including by increasing its stockpiles of enriched uranium.

That has heightened fears that Tehran might be seeking to develop a nuclear weapon, which it denies.

The resolution comes just as IAEA head Rafael Grossi returned from a trip to Tehran last week, where he appeared to have made headway.

During the visit, Iran agreed to an IAEA demand to cap its sensitive stock of near weapons-grade uranium enriched up to 60% purity.

“This is a concrete step in the right direction,” Grossi told reporters Wednesday, saying it was “the first time” Iran had made such a commitment since it started breaking away from its obligations under the nuclear deal.

EU Warnings

The European Union on Thursday warned that Iran had deviated from its commitments under the nuclear deal and has sharply increased its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60%, a level with significant proliferation risks and no credible civilian justification.

In a statement delivered during the IAEA Board of Governors meeting, the EU emphasized that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains a critical security priority.

The EU urged all nations to support the implementation of Resolution 2231, which underpins the IAEA’s monitoring and verification of Iran’s nuclear program.

It then expressed regret over Iran’s failure to return to its nuclear-related JCPOA commitments, which has led to significant nuclear advancements over the past five years.

These actions, the EU noted, have heightened the risk of nuclear proliferation in the region.

In return, Iran warned on Thursday that the resolution tabled by Western countries to censure Iran’s nuclear program at the International Atomic Energy Agency “will weaken and disrupt” interactions between the UN body and Tehran.

“This inappropriate action of the three European countries to issue a resolution against Iran will only weaken and disrupt interactive processes between the agency and Iran,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement carried by the foreign ministry.

The Iranian deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs Kazem Gharibabadi said on X on Wednesday that the three European countries were using the IAEA as a “political tool.”