JP Morgan: Diverse Assets Can Weather Expected Recession

Steven Rees, the Managing Director of Investments for the Middle East and North Africa at JP Morgan Private Bank
Steven Rees, the Managing Director of Investments for the Middle East and North Africa at JP Morgan Private Bank
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JP Morgan: Diverse Assets Can Weather Expected Recession

Steven Rees, the Managing Director of Investments for the Middle East and North Africa at JP Morgan Private Bank
Steven Rees, the Managing Director of Investments for the Middle East and North Africa at JP Morgan Private Bank

Nowadays, the global economy is facing numerous threats that cannot be ignored. The US banking sector has experienced significant disruptions, while markets in Europe continue to grapple with rising inflation rates and the devastating effects of the ongoing Ukraine war.

Steven Rees, the Managing Director of Investments for the Middle East and North Africa at JP Morgan Private Bank, concurs with the market consensus that the US will likely face a recession in the next 6-12 months.

However, in a report sent to Asharq Al-Awsat, Rees expressed belief that diversified investment portfolios can continue to yield strong returns as the world approaches 2024.

Rees also pointed out that the worst of the stock market downturn has passed.

Regardless of the possibility of an economic recession, Rees ruled out the stock market dipping to the same levels it saw in October 2022.

According to Rees, expectations are based on several factors, including corporate profit growth, which plays a more significant role in stock market gains than many realize.

Although there’s been a slight decline in profits and their margins from their peak levels, and demand growth is slowing, corporate sales remain robust, revealed Rees.

Transportation and energy costs are low, and the dollar is weak, coupled with a less competitive job market environment, he further elaborated.

As a result, analysts’ projections for corporate earnings over the next 12 months have risen in the US, Europe, and China, Rees emphasized.

Moreover, Rees said that promising opportunities are present globally in various areas. These include investment strategies focused on companies with growth in dividend distributions, the shift towards clean energy, and the next wave of digital innovations.

Considering the diverse sectors, Rees added that healthcare and technology companies, particularly with many leading firms operating in the Middle East region, are favored.

Rees emphasized that the essence of investing revolves around constructing portfolios resilient to various types of risks in the long run.

He remarked that it might be premature to label the market as a new bull run, but added that he doesn’t believe it’s in a bearish phase either. Stocks have the potential for steady appreciation, while bonds can offer return stability.

Alternative investments also open the door to a plethora of investment opportunities, stressed Rees.

He further underscored that all these options have the capability to outperform cash in the long term, regardless of the occurrence of an economic recession.



Vision 2030 Transforms Saudi Arabia into a Global Logistics Platform

Jeddah Islamic Port (Saudi Ports Authority)
Jeddah Islamic Port (Saudi Ports Authority)
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Vision 2030 Transforms Saudi Arabia into a Global Logistics Platform

Jeddah Islamic Port (Saudi Ports Authority)
Jeddah Islamic Port (Saudi Ports Authority)

In a global landscape rocked by supply chain disruptions, Saudi Arabia has emerged as an indispensable pillar of stability on the international logistics map. Over the past decade, the Kingdom has demonstrated an exceptional ability to overcome global shocks with greater strength, relying on the Vision 2030 approach based on resilience and proactivity.

This systematic investment in "strengths" was not merely a response to local development requirements but also the construction of a cross-border economic defensive shield, transforming current challenges into a launching pad for global leadership.

In light of the Vision, the Kingdom's geostrategic location has transformed from a static comparative advantage into a dynamic tool that has shaped a new economic reality. This was achieved through the high-quality connectivity between vital waterways from the Arabian Gulf in the east to the Red Sea in the west.

This interconnectedness, supported by advanced air and rail transport platforms, has not only enhanced the Kingdom's position as a link between three continents but also made it a vital artery ensuring the sustainability of international trade. It has proven the national system's ability to transform geopolitical challenges into pioneering opportunities that guarantee global prosperity.

Institutional Harmony

The journey of comprehensive development began with the reorganization of the logistics system, aiming to enhance performance efficiency and achieve the highest degree of integration among its various sectors.

This was embodied in the transformation of the Ministry of Transport into the Ministry of Transport and Logistics Services, leading institutional harmony that brings together the Authority General Transport, ports, and civil aviation under its umbrella.

This reform did not stop at the organizational aspect but extended to enhancing the operational role of national entities. This included empowering the Saudi Railway Company (SAR) and establishing new strategic entities such as Riyadh Air, the Saudi Air Navigation Services Company, the General Authority for Roads, and the National Transport Safety Center.

The system also witnessed a qualitative transformation in the postal services sector through the development of the SPL institution and the expansion of its services to meet modern logistics requirements.

Roadmap Towards Strategic Certainty

National strategies for transport, logistics services, and aviation have contributed to creating a state of "strategic certainty" regarding the sector's future, supported by colossal infrastructure projects that ensure sustainable growth through:

- Air Expansion: Working on establishing leading international airports, such as King Salman International Airport, and the new Abha and Jazan airports, in parallel with launching the "Air Connectivity Program" to enhance global access.

- Smart Logistics Centers: Launching the master plan for logistics centers, which includes establishing 59 centers (24 of which were activated by the end of 2025), and developing ports to become "smart ports" that rely on digitalization as a fundamental pillar.

- Rail Connectivity: Expanding the railway network and connecting the northern lines with the eastern ones (Jubail-Dammam), which has provided low-cost, highly reliable logistics solutions.

How the Kingdom Digitalized the Future of Investment?

The logistics environment has undergone fundamental development, enabling it to assume a prominent position as an attractive destination for global investment, thanks to the adoption of a comprehensive digitalization strategy for services and integrated connectivity through unified digital platforms. This transformation has led to enhanced ease of doing business by simplifying regulatory procedures and automating license issuance, making it more flexible and faster in responding to market demands.

This digital path has also contributed to raising the efficiency of real-time coordination among various regulatory bodies, which in turn has shortened the "investor's journey" and solidified reliability levels in national logistics operations.

In terms of direct economic impact, these digital enablers have played a pivotal role in stimulating growth and diversification rates. They have contributed to revitalizing re-export sectors and providing effective logistical support for non-oil exports. Technical integration has also facilitated the access of local products to international markets according to competitive standards in terms of efficiency and cost, making the logistics system a key driver for supporting cross-border trade and expanding the Saudi economy's global influence.

The Language of Numbers

These strategic efforts culminated in tangible progress for the Kingdom in the most important international forums, reflecting the efficiency of sustainable infrastructure investment and continuous improvement in logistics performance.

This was embodied by the Kingdom reaching the top ten countries globally in the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) issued by the World Bank, in addition to ranking second globally in growth rates among G20 countries, with a growth of 32 percent compared to 2024.
The Kingdom also maintained its strong presence among the top four centers in the Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index for 2025, which confirms the competitiveness and stability of the Saudi investment environment.

To facilitate global trade movement, the Kingdom achieved qualitative leaps in the efficiency of border operations; it successfully reduced customs clearance times from 9 hours in 2021 to less than two hours by 2025. This achievement coincided with a strategic expansion in logistics facilities, represented by an increase in the number of licensed deposit areas to 21, which enhanced the Kingdom's ability to accommodate global goods flows and support supply chain fluidity with efficiency and capability.

The Story of 24 Million Containers

The geography of the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea are among the most vital and influential waterways in international trade movement, which gives Saudi ports, extending along the eastern and western coasts, immense strategic importance as fundamental pillars of global navigation.

By serving as logistics convergence points connecting three continents, these ports have succeeded in solidifying their pivotal role in ensuring the sustainability of global supply chains and the flow of goods, transforming the Kingdom's geographical advantages into an active economic force that supports the stability of cross-border trade.

In pursuit of maximizing these gains, the Kingdom launched a series of qualitative development projects to modernize port infrastructure and expand shipping services. These efforts resulted in a major leap in handling capacity, which increased by 50 percent to reach 24.3 million standard containers, in parallel with a tangible increase in the number of added maritime shipping services, totaling 101 services.

This expansion has not only contributed to increasing the Kingdom's interconnectedness with global markets but also enabled it to establish new shipping routes that enhance flexible access to key international ports.

This development vision has extended beyond ports to include the establishment of integrated logistics zones and centers designed to be attractive incubators for major investments. These zones allow investors to maximize the benefits of integrated logistics services for their business growth, in addition to activating re-export activities, which represent added value to the national economy.

Through this integrated system, the Kingdom reaffirms its commitment to its role as a global leader in the maritime sector, providing an advanced logistics environment that ensures efficient operational processes and supports the sustainability of global economic growth.
 

The Vision Train: A Railway Artery Connecting Cities to Ports

The Kingdom invested early in building a robust aviation sector, recognizing the importance of connecting with the world, facilitating the arrival of pilgrims, and finding innovative solutions for cargo shipping.

The sector underwent pivotal regulatory stages, starting with the establishment of the Civil Aviation Department and Saudi Arabian Airlines, leading to structural independence with the establishment of the General Authority of Civil Aviation, which laid the foundations for institutional work that paved the way for major transformations aligning with growing international requirements.

With the emergence of Vision 2030, the Kingdom foresaw exceptional opportunities to develop the aviation sector and effectively contribute to economic growth, leveraging its strategic location connecting the world's three continents.

This vision was translated through the reorganization of the General Authority of Civil Aviation and the establishment of new strategic entities, such as Riyadh Air and the Saudi Air Navigation Services Company, in parallel with the launch of the National Aviation Strategy and the Air Connectivity Program, which aimed to expand international reach through new air routes connecting Saudi cities with global capitals.

In the context of infrastructure modernization, the pace of establishing major international airports accelerated, with development work continuing across all regions of the Kingdom, alongside accelerating private sector involvement in airport management to enhance operational efficiency.

Thanks to these efforts, Saudi airports today have transformed into pivotal connectivity hubs linking global and regional destinations, which has contributed to achieving qualitative leaps in passenger numbers and air cargo activity.

The Kingdom is steadily moving towards its ambitious targets of connecting to 250 global destinations via 29 airports, serving 330 million passengers, and transporting 4.5 million tons of cargo annually by 2030.

Railway Network

The story of railways in the Kingdom began as a strategic necessity to connect the capital, Riyadh, with Dammam Port, leading to the establishment of the Saudi Railways Organization to enhance import and export movement and freight transport.

With the expansion of development projects, especially in the mining sector, the Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) was established to extend the network, reaching the farthest north of the Kingdom, thereby creating a solid infrastructure for transporting passengers, minerals, and commercial goods with high efficiency.

With the launch of Vision 2030, the railway sector entered an ambitious phase aiming for complete integration with all other logistics sectors.

This phase witnessed an unprecedented expansion in train operations, making Saudi cities more interconnected; the north of the Kingdom was linked to its center and east, providing reliable and sustainable transport solutions. Work on the Haramain High-Speed Railway also accelerated, representing a qualitative leap in serving pilgrims, connecting Makkah, Madinah, Jeddah, and King Abdullah Economic City in Rabigh with the highest standards of speed and safety.

Today, the Kingdom is moving towards a more interconnected future through ambitious projects that support tourism activity and enhance regional connectivity between Saudi cities and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

This advanced network is no longer just a means of transport; it has become a fundamental pillar for enhancing the quality of life and supporting economic diversification by reducing logistics costs and improving service reliability, thereby solidifying the Kingdom's position as a global logistics hub connecting industrial centers, ports, and urban communities.

It is clear that the radical transformation witnessed by the Saudi logistics sector is not just a race towards numbers and indicators, but a complete reshaping of the "Kingdom's economic identity" to become the vital and reliable link for global trade.


Vision 2030: The Story of Transformation from Traditional Management to Global Digital Leadership

Vision 2030: The Story of Transformation from Traditional Management to Global Digital Leadership
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Vision 2030: The Story of Transformation from Traditional Management to Global Digital Leadership

Vision 2030: The Story of Transformation from Traditional Management to Global Digital Leadership

Saudi Arabia has embarked on a path of digital transformation and a knowledge-based economy as part of Vision 2030, relying on an advanced digital infrastructure and a knowledge base accumulated over many years, which has enhanced its ability to compete in future economies.

This transformation has been driven by a national ambition to diversify the economy, create new job opportunities, and empower youth through building an integrated system that supports innovation, research, and technology.

Paperless Government

As part of this transformation, the Kingdom adopted a "paperless government" policy, which aimed to facilitate beneficiaries' access to government services through unified digital platforms covering various sectors such as justice, health, tourism, investment, housing, logistics, and real estate, among others.

This approach contributed to reducing and simplifying procedures, enabling beneficiaries to complete their transactions without the need for personal presence, whether they are citizens, residents, investors, or visitors, as stated in the Vision 2030 Annual Report for 2025.

Comprehensive Government Program

The Digital Government Authority also launched the Comprehensive Government program in 2022, aiming to accelerate digital transformation, enhance integration among government entities, and provide an integrated digital experience that simplifies the beneficiary's journey and increases the efficiency of government resource utilization in the digital space.

This has been reflected in several qualitative successes, most notably the Balady platform, which contributed to the closure of 37 government platforms with an achievement rate exceeding 80 percent, in addition to the Logisti platform, which offers over 200 services, and the Sehaty platform, which serves more than 30 million beneficiaries.

Global AI Hub

In the field of artificial intelligence, the Kingdom has solidified its position as an advanced global hub, leveraging the availability of energy, digital infrastructure, and data centers, making it an attractive destination for AI technologies.

Humain company was launched as an integrated national project aimed at localizing artificial intelligence technologies, developing large language models that support Arabic content, and operating advanced applications in data centers; including AI technologies in Dammam.

Investments are also being made in building human capabilities by integrating artificial intelligence into educational curricula and launching training programs targeting students and national talents, thereby enhancing the readiness of future generations.

Humain Company

Humain was launched in 2025 and is developing advanced AI solutions, including a smart Arabic assistant, leading language models, a fully AI-powered operating system, in addition to devices and technologies developed within the Kingdom, serving hundreds of thousands of users. The number of active users exceeds 300,000, and its services extend to 5 different markets, supporting over 150 digital applications and services.

Digital Transformation of the Judicial Sector

In the judicial sector, digital services have undergone a qualitative leap, offering over 160 electronic services that saved approximately 90 million papers annually and eliminated 65 million visits. This is in addition to the digitization of more than 200 million real estate documents and the implementation of electronic litigation, which reduced the duration of cases by 79 percent, alongside the launch of Virtual Court and Virtual Notary Public.

This development is based on an advanced digital infrastructure and a secure, reliable digital space, which has led the Kingdom towards a more advanced stage that goes beyond merely providing services to enhancing user experience and eliminating complexity.

Digital and Knowledge-based Economy

In terms of the digital and knowledge-based economy, the Kingdom has established its position as one of the strongly emerging economies of the future, through developing an integrated legislative and institutional system. This included the establishment of the Saudi Authority for Intellectual Property, the Research Development and Innovation Authority, and the Saudi Space Agency, in addition to reorganizing the Communications, Space & Technology Commission, establishing the National Information Technology Development Program, and enhancing the role of research and innovation centers such as King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) and King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST).

Digital Security

A national framework was also established to enhance the security of the digital space as part of national security, contributing to economic and social stability, empowering technology companies, and fostering the growth of digital services.

This was supported by the establishment of the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority (SDAIA) and the National Cybersecurity Authority, in addition to international initiatives such as the Child Protection in Cyberspace Initiative; all of which contributed to strengthening the Kingdom's global leadership in technology, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity.

Digital Economy Market

Economic indicators reflect the scale of this transformation, as the size of the digital economy market in the Kingdom reached 745.98 billion Saudi Riyals ($198.9 billion), while the size of the communications and information technology market reached 199 billion Saudi Riyals. Several Saudi technology companies have emerged as billion-dollar enterprises signifying the growth and accelerated maturity of the digital sector.

Leading Positions in Global Indices

Advanced international indicators reflect the Kingdom's position in the digital and technical fields, where it ranked first globally in the Telecommunication and ICT Development Index, and first globally in the Cybersecurity Index for the second consecutive year according to the Global Competitiveness Report. It also led globally in empowering women in artificial intelligence, according to the Stanford index.

Saudi Arabia ranked first globally in the Digital Readiness Index 2025, issued by the International Telecommunication Union.

Regionally, the Kingdom ranked first in the AI Safety Index, while achieving 11th place globally. It also led regionally in the Shaheen III supercomputer, ranking 18th globally.
The Kingdom ranked first regionally in government readiness for artificial intelligence, according to the Oxford Insights report.

Globally, the Kingdom achieved second place in the Digital Government Maturity Index, third globally in the growth rate of AI jobs, and also third globally in the number of leading AI models, according to the Stanford index, in addition to being among the 7 countries worldwide that have published leading AI models.

It also ranked second among G20 countries in the Telecommunications and Technology Sector Regulatory Development Index, sixth globally in the E-Government Development Index, and 20th globally in the Quality Infrastructure for Sustainable Development Index.


PIF: The Cornerstone of a Sustainable Economy Under Saudi Vision 2030

The Public Investment Fund Tower in King Abdullah Financial District in the Saudi capital, Riyadh (KAFD)
The Public Investment Fund Tower in King Abdullah Financial District in the Saudi capital, Riyadh (KAFD)
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PIF: The Cornerstone of a Sustainable Economy Under Saudi Vision 2030

The Public Investment Fund Tower in King Abdullah Financial District in the Saudi capital, Riyadh (KAFD)
The Public Investment Fund Tower in King Abdullah Financial District in the Saudi capital, Riyadh (KAFD)

With confident strides and a proactive vision, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) is leading the major economic diversification journey, creating opportunities and redrawing the national investment map.

Through its ambitious strategy, which entered its third phase in 2026, the Fund has succeeded in establishing an integrated ecosystem of major companies and projects that form the cornerstone of building a sustainable economy.

The current work not only aims for financial growth but also seeks to empower the private sector and open unprecedented horizons for advanced industries and sophisticated infrastructure.

Roots and Historical Transformation

Since its establishment in 1971, the Fund has solidified its position as one of the most prominent strategic engines in Saudi Arabia's economic transformation, by supporting national development, financing major projects, and establishing national companies that contributed to building an economic base extending for decades.

With the launch of Vision 2030, the Fund's role shifted from a traditional financing entity to an investment arm driving economic diversification, boosting the growth of non-oil sectors, and reshaping the investment landscape through distinctive local and international partnerships.
This transformation has made it one of the Kingdom's most crucial tools for attracting opportunities and consolidating its economic presence on a global scale.

Phases of Strategic Transformation

PIF's work within Vision 2030 unfolded through three consecutive phases characterized by integration and evolution.

The first phase extended until 2020, focusing on institutional restructuring, integrating the Fund into Vision realization programs, and launching an ambitious strategy aimed at developing ten strategic sectors, alongside updating regulatory frameworks to enhance investment efficiency.

The second phase, spanning from 2021 to 2025, saw a significant expansion in the Fund's scope of work, targeting investments in 13 strategic sectors and accelerating the implementation of mega-projects.

During this phase, distinctive projects such as Diriyah, The Red Sea Project, and Qiddiya emerged, contributing to strengthening the Kingdom's position as a global destination for tourism and investment.

Upon entering the third phase in 2026, the Fund refocused its strategy to encompass six key sectors: tourism, travel and entertainment; urban development and regeneration; advanced industries and innovation; industry and logistics services; clean and renewable energy and water infrastructure; and NEOM.

This includes strengthening the private sector's role in operating mega-projects and capitalizing on growing investment opportunities, reflecting a transition towards a more mature and sustainable economic model.

Tangible Economic Outcomes

These phases have yielded significant economic results, with the Fund's assets under management substantially doubling to 3.41 trillion Saudi Riyals ($909.3 billion) in 2025. Non-oil GDP rose to historic levels, with the Fund's contribution reaching approximately 10 percent. It also contributed to creating over one million direct and indirect job opportunities since 2018, in addition to enabling the private sector to participate in diverse strategic projects.

Future Investment Initiative

The Public Investment Fund has enhanced its international presence by building strategic partnerships and attracting global capital. The Future Investment Initiative (FII), launched by the Fund, has also become an annual international platform bringing together economic leaders, investors, and experts to discuss the future of investment and global challenges, making it one of the most prominent economic events worldwide.

This presence has contributed to cementing the Kingdom's position as an influential hub in the global economy, in addition to enhancing the Fund's brand value, which has become among the fastest-growing sovereign wealth funds globally, thanks to its investment performance and adoption of governance and sustainability standards.

Empowering the Private Sector

The Fund has placed significant emphasis on empowering the private sector, working to create extensive investment opportunities for local companies, including small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), by increasing local content and expanding economic partnerships. This has contributed to raising the private sector's contribution to the economy to approximately 51 percent.

PIF has also launched supporting initiatives such as the Private Sector Forum, the Private Sector Hub, and training and qualification programs like the Musahemah program, the Industrial Business Accelerator, and the Azm program, all of which have helped build a more competitive and sustainable business environment.

Sustainability and Green Economy

The Fund has moved to bolster sustainability as part of its investment strategy, becoming one of the first sovereign wealth funds to issue green bonds. This path began in 2022 with the issuance of the first green bond, followed by a second in 2023, and a new one in 2025.

The proceeds from these issuances totaled approximately $9 billion, directed towards 91 environmental projects in renewable energy, energy efficiency, green buildings, and water management. This contributes to reducing emissions by about 10.1 million tons of carbon dioxide, supporting the net-zero target.

Investment Environment

The investment environment in the Kingdom has undergone a radical transformation with Vision 2030, through regulatory and legislative reforms including the new Investment Law, the Bankruptcy Law, the TAYSEER program, and the establishment of the National Competitiveness Center and the Small and Medium Enterprises General Authority.

This has contributed to enhancing the Kingdom's investment attractiveness, with the value of non-oil investments rising to approximately 797 billion Saudi Riyals ($212.5 billion), and the contribution of investment to the economy increasing from 22 percent to 30 percent.

Furthermore, the private sector's contribution to total investments has grown to 76 percent, making it the largest driver of economic growth.

PIF continues to play its role as a key driver in reshaping the Saudi economy, leading the transformation towards diversification and sustainability, and enhancing the Kingdom's position as a global investment destination capable of competing and influencing the global economy.