African Union Suspends Niger over Coup, Prepares Sanctions

The logo of the African Union (AU) is seen at the entrance of the AU headquarters on March 13, 2019, in Addis Ababa. (AFP)
The logo of the African Union (AU) is seen at the entrance of the AU headquarters on March 13, 2019, in Addis Ababa. (AFP)
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African Union Suspends Niger over Coup, Prepares Sanctions

The logo of the African Union (AU) is seen at the entrance of the AU headquarters on March 13, 2019, in Addis Ababa. (AFP)
The logo of the African Union (AU) is seen at the entrance of the AU headquarters on March 13, 2019, in Addis Ababa. (AFP)

The African Union (AU) has suspended Niger from all its activities following the military coup there and told its members to avoid any action that might legitimize the junta.

The coup last month has caused alarm among Western allies and democratic African states who fear it could allow extremist groups active in the Sahel region to expand their reach, and give Russia a foothold to increase its influence.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has been trying to negotiate with the junta but says it is ready to send troops into Niger to restore constitutional order if diplomatic efforts fail.

In a rare sign of progress on Tuesday, ECOWAS mediator Abdulsalami Abubakar, who is a former military leader of Nigeria, said a weekend visit to Niger had been “very fruitful" and that he still had hope for a peaceful resolution.

"Nobody wants to go to war," he told reporters in Abuja after briefing Nigerian President Bola Tinubu on the mission.

"We started talking. They (the junta) have made their own points. We'll get somewhere hopefully," he said, without giving further details.

The AU Peace and Security Council said in a communique on Tuesday that it had noted ECOWAS' decision to activate a standby force and asked the AU Commission to assess the economic, social, and security implications of deploying such a force.

It also said it had asked the AU Commission to compile a list of members of the military junta and their supporters for targeted sanctions and "the application of individual punitive measures".

The resolutions in Tuesday's statement were adopted at a council meeting held on Aug. 14, it said.

ECOWAS has already imposed broad sanctions on Niger, which the AU endorsed.

The AU reiterated calls for the coup leaders to immediately release elected President Mohamed Bazoum, who has been detained since the coup, and return to their barracks.

The junta has resisted pressure to stand down and on Saturday proposed a three-year timeline to organize elections, a plan which ECOWAS rejected.

'Grave implications'

The ECOWAS Parliament, one of the regional bloc's institutions, is against sending in troops, said Ali Ndume, a representative from Nigeria.

"Our stand is informed by the grave implications of a military intervention in Niger. (There is) no alternative to a diplomatic solution," he told journalists in Abuja on Tuesday, following a parliamentary meeting on Niger the night before.

Regional leaders have taken a hard line on Niger, trying to show that they meant it when they said coups would no longer be tolerated in the region. Niger's coup is the seventh in West and Central Africa since 2020.

The country has strategic significance as a base for US and French troops helping fight extremist militant groups in the region, and as one of the world's biggest producers of uranium.

Algerian state radio said late on Monday that Algeria had refused a French request to fly over its airspace for a military operation in Niger. France denied making any such request. It was not clear what type of operation Algeria referred to.

The AU said it strongly rejected any external interference in the situation by any actor or country outside of Africa, including engagements by private military companies - a likely reference to Russian mercenary group Wagner, which is active in neighboring Mali.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has welcomed the coup and on Monday posted a video in which he appeared to be in Africa, promoting Wagner's activities there.



Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
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Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)

Aviation experts said Thursday that Russian air defense fire was likely responsible for the Azerbaijani plane crash the day before that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.
Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan's capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons still unclear and crashed while making an attempt to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea.
The plane went down about 3 kilometers (around 2 miles) from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before smashing into the ground and exploding in a fireball.
Other footage showed part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside down in the grass.
Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims with national flags at half-staff across the country on Thursday. Traffic stopped at noon, and signals sounded from ships and trains as it observed a nationwide moment of silence.
Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.
“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” The Associated Press quoted him as saying.
Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.
As the official crash investigation started, some experts alleged that holes seen in the plane’s tail section could indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was fended off on Wednesday, although federal authorities didn't report it.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the images of fragments of the crashed plane indicate that it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM.
“Much more to investigate, but at high level we'd put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket,” he said.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane's tail reveal the damage compatible with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
“It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.
Matveyev added that it remains unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane was hit.
“Perhaps some of the plane's systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions on landing at another venue in Russia.
Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website with good government connections, also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system as it was approaching Grozny. It questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the apparent drone raid in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya's Security Council, said that air defenses downed drones attacking the region on Wednesday.
Caliber also wondered why Russian authorities didn't allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.
Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”
Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defense fire as unfounded and unethical.
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine it.
According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.