As regional economies reel from a complex and uncertain geopolitical landscape, with shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz adding pressure, the latest World Bank report points to standout resilience in Saudi Arabia’s economy.
The data show the kingdom on a fiscal consolidation path to strengthen its fiscal position, with the budget deficit set to halve and the current account shifting from deficit to surplus.
April data from the World Bank indicate Saudi Arabia has not only built solid “economic buffers,” but is also leveraging geopolitical pressures to advance structural reforms.
While much of the region faces sharp fiscal strain and negative growth, the kingdom is moving steadily ahead, recording the strongest growth among regional peers and reinforcing its role as a pillar of regional stability.
Despite broad downward revisions, Saudi Arabia remains the region’s top performer. Growth forecasts for the wider region have been cut to 1.8%, while the kingdom is expected to expand by 3.1%.
Current account shifts to a 3.3% surplus
World Bank data point to a shift in Saudi Arabia’s current account. After a projected deficit of 2.7% of GDP in 2025, forecasts for 2026 point to a surplus of 3.3%.
A current account surplus means exports of goods and services exceed imports, strengthening the balance of payments. It also reflects rising net foreign assets and stronger financing capacity, supported by solid export performance and moderate domestic demand.
The shift carries broader weight. Moving from deficit to surplus positions, Saudi Arabia becomes a net lender to the global economy, with oil export revenues, fast-growing non-oil sectors, and returns on foreign investments outpacing spending on imports and services.
Beyond the headline figures, the surplus acts as an external buffer, supporting currency stability and generating strong liquidity flows. This gives financial institutions and sovereign funds greater room to sustain investment in major development projects, while helping shield the economy from disruptions in global supply chains and shipping routes.
Deficit set to halve
Fiscal data show improved expenditure control and revenue growth. The World Bank expects the deficit to narrow from 6.4% of GDP in 2025 to 3.0% in 2026, below the Finance Ministry’s estimate of 3.3%.
The shift reflects tighter fiscal discipline. Despite the cost of regional tensions, the gap between revenue and spending is set to shrink by half in one year.
This reflects effective fiscal policy, including stronger tax collection and public financial management, rising non-oil revenues that reduce reliance on energy price swings, and more efficient public spending focused on high-impact development projects, limiting the need for external borrowing and supporting long-term fiscal balance.
Saudi Arabia leads per capita growth
The April 2026 report also shows a sharp divergence in per capita growth across the region. While countries such as Kuwait (-7.7%) and Qatar (-7.4%) face steep contractions, Saudi Arabia stands out with an expected per capita growth rate of 1.4%.
Inflation remains contained at 2.8%, helping preserve purchasing power despite global increases in energy and shipping costs driven by maritime disruptions. This stability protects the broader economy from imported inflation pressures.
