Saudi Arabia, Russia to Continue Voluntary Cuts to Support Oil Market Stability

Voluntary cuts to enhance the OPEC+ precautionary efforts to stabilize oil markets. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Voluntary cuts to enhance the OPEC+ precautionary efforts to stabilize oil markets. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia, Russia to Continue Voluntary Cuts to Support Oil Market Stability

Voluntary cuts to enhance the OPEC+ precautionary efforts to stabilize oil markets. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Voluntary cuts to enhance the OPEC+ precautionary efforts to stabilize oil markets. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia and Russia have said they were continuing voluntary oil cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) to year-end.

Saudi Arabia on Wednesday extended its one million bpd voluntary crude oil production cut until the end of the year 2023.

An official source at the Ministry of Energy announced that the Kingdom would continue with its voluntary oil output cut of one million bpd for the month of November and until the end of the year and that it would review the decision again next month.

The Kingdom’s production for November and December will be approximately 9 million bpd, the ministry said in a statement.

The source also explained that this reduction is in addition to the voluntary reduction that the Kingdom had previously announced in April 2023 and which extends until the end of December 2024.

The ministry source confirmed that this additional voluntary reduction comes to strengthen the precautionary efforts made by OPEC+ countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets.

Saudi Arabia first implemented the additional voluntary cut in July and has since extended it on a monthly basis.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who chairs the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), last month said OPEC+ cuts were needed to stabilize the market, and prices were not being targeted.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia will continue the voluntary export cut of 300,000 bpd until the end of December too, as previously announced.

On output, he said: “Next month, a market analysis will be carried out in order to make a decision on whether to deepen the reduction or increase oil production.”

Novak said that joint oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia had helped to balance global oil markets.

He also said Russia’s ban on gasoline and diesel exports had had a positive effect on the domestic fuel market.

The JMMC held a meeting via videoconference on Wednesday and made no changes to the group's oil output policy.

“The committee will continue to closely assess market conditions,” noting that the countries “stand ready to take additional measures at any time, building on the strong cohesion of OPEC and participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries.”

“The committee also expressed its full recognition and support for the efforts of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market and reiterated its appreciation for the Kingdom’s additional voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day and for extending it till end of December 2023.”

“The committee also acknowledged the Russian Federation for extending its additional voluntary reduction of exports by 300 kbd till the end of December 2023.”

The next meeting of the JMMC 51st is scheduled for November 26.

The global oil market is moving on the right path towards balanced supply and demand, Kuwait’s Oil Minister Saad Al Barrak said on Wednesday.

“The world is required to increase investment in all types of energy sources, including oil, to ensure meeting the needs of growing demand, the recovery of the global economy, and energy security,” Barrak said.

He also praised the decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to continue voluntary reduction and extending it until the end of this year, pointing to the positive impact on the balance and stability of the oil market.



US Consumers to Bargain Hunt in Annual ‘Black Friday’ Spree

 A family eats lunch near a store advertising a Black Friday sale at the Pentagon City Mall in Arlington, Virginia, on November 22, 2023. (AFP)
A family eats lunch near a store advertising a Black Friday sale at the Pentagon City Mall in Arlington, Virginia, on November 22, 2023. (AFP)
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US Consumers to Bargain Hunt in Annual ‘Black Friday’ Spree

 A family eats lunch near a store advertising a Black Friday sale at the Pentagon City Mall in Arlington, Virginia, on November 22, 2023. (AFP)
A family eats lunch near a store advertising a Black Friday sale at the Pentagon City Mall in Arlington, Virginia, on November 22, 2023. (AFP)

US shoppers are coming out in force this holiday season, but the festiveness is being tempered by inflationary pressures that have abated but not completely faded.

After the sticker shock during the latter stages of the pandemic, a familiar frustration has settled in towards consumer prices that remain broadly elevated even if they have stopped rising rapidly.

Americans are "ready to open their wallets this holiday season," said the Conference Board ahead of Black Friday -- the day after Thanksgiving, which this year, falls on November 28 -- that traditionally sees US stores kick off the Christmas shopping season with steep discounts.

"US consumers plan to spend more than last year, but inflation reduces how far their dollars can go."

In this environment, nobody expects to pay the full price for items.

"Holiday shoppers are likely to increase their budgets this year versus last year but remain selective and are looking for discounts," said a note from Morgan Stanley.

The investment bank's survey found that 35 percent planned to spend more this holiday season. But nearly two-thirds would skip a purchase if an item is not adequately discounted, meaning a price cut of more than 20 percent.

"It's gonna be a good year, but I don't think that growth is going to be spectacular because consumers are still under pressure," predicted Neil Saunders of GlobalData.

Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's two percent long-term target, rising in October to 2.6 percent on an annual basis from 2.4 percent in September. But that's significantly below the peak level of 9.1 percent in June 2022.

Other recent economic data has been solid. Unemployment remains low at 4.1 percent, while a preliminary GDP reading for the third quarter came in at 2.8 percent.

But Joe Biden's presidency coincided with about a 20 percent rise in consumer prices as Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns gave way to supply chain bottlenecks.

That inflation played a central role in the 2024 US presidential election, with Republican Donald Trump defeating Biden's appointed Democratic successor, Vice President Kamala Harris.

"There is still a perception among consumers that things are quite difficult," Saunders said. "So people are being quite cautious and careful in their spending."

- Tariff hit? -

How Trump's looming presidency will affect inflation remains to be seen. Industry groups have warned that tariffs favored by the Republican could reignite pricing pressures.

The National Retail Federation projected that a Trump tariff proposal floated during the campaign would dent US consumer budgets by as much as $78 billion annually.

But while tough potential trade actions are already preoccupying Washington trade groups, tariffs are not on consumer radars for the 2024 season, according to Saunders.

One challenge this year will be the shortness of the season.

Black Friday falls at the latest possible date on November 29, shortening the stretch between Turkey Day and Christmas on December 25.

But the impact of that dynamic on 2024 sales should not be overstated. Retailers in recent years have pulled the holiday shopping season ahead, with some vendors launching online "Black Friday" promotions as early as October.

Among the companies that have already begun discounts: the big-box chains Walmart and Target, electronics giant Best Buy and home-improvement retailer Home Depot.

Amazon officially launched "Black Friday Week" on Thursday.

NRF has projected holiday spending growth of between 2.5 and 3.5 percent in the 2024 season compared with the year-ago period, to as much as $989 billion over the two-month period.

Economists with the trade group have pointed to an easing of gasoline prices as a supportive factor.

Online sales are projected to grow as much as nine percent this season, extending a long-term trend. Black Friday itself has become a big occasion for online shopping, along with "Cyber Monday" three days later.

"Over time, we've moved from a period where it was just Black Friday, and maybe a little of the weekend, to it being a period of discounting that starts very early," said Saunders. "It's seasonal discounts."

There has been a diminishment of "doorbuster" sales that are known to draw hordes of waiting crowds, sometimes resulting in injury or worse.

Instead, increasing numbers of consumers are spreading out their purchases or opting to click through Black Friday promotions at home.