Saudi Arabia Calls for ‘Proactive Measures’ in Oil Market

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addresses the opening session of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Climate Week in Riyadh, on October 8, 2023. (Photo by Fayez Nureldine / AFP)
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addresses the opening session of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Climate Week in Riyadh, on October 8, 2023. (Photo by Fayez Nureldine / AFP)
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Saudi Arabia Calls for ‘Proactive Measures’ in Oil Market

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addresses the opening session of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Climate Week in Riyadh, on October 8, 2023. (Photo by Fayez Nureldine / AFP)
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addresses the opening session of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Climate Week in Riyadh, on October 8, 2023. (Photo by Fayez Nureldine / AFP)

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has said it was necessary to be "proactive" on the oil market and attempt to bring stability to it, while adding that oil producers do not target prices.

In a Russian TV interview aired Thursday, Prince Abdulaziz said the market was unpredictable and "cannot be left on its own."

"We are not magicians. It is hard to forecast what will happen on the market even in half a year," he told Rossiya-24 state TV.

The minister said the need to act on the oil market depended on its volatility, adding that attempts to target prices had failed in the 1980s.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to continue with voluntary oil supply cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day, or more than 1 percent of global demand, to the end of the year.

Abdulaziz said the terms of the deal would be evaluated every month.

In the same interview, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia's deal with OPEC+ had had a stabilizing effect.

He noted that the balance between supply and demand is fragile and could be affected by the slowdown in global economic growth.

Abdulaziz stated that the two countries seek to strengthen trade relations, while Novak explained that Russia and Saudi Arabia discussed the mutual lifting of visa restrictions.

Meanwhile, Novak said on Thursday that Russia's pledges to the OPEC+ group to cut its oil exports included a reduction in oil products, according to news agencies.

Novak's statement stoked confusion over Russia's plans to reduce oil supplies.

In his original announcement of the plans to cut oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), Novak had not mentioned oil products but had spoken only about oil.

"When we talk about the oil market and production, oil is produced and then supplied for processing. Therefore, of course, everything is considered together. The final product, of course, takes into account the volumes that are produced," Novak said in response to a question on whether oil products were included in the export reductions, according to Interfax news agency.

It would be easier for Moscow to cut overall exports of crude oil and fuel after Russia announced on Sept. 21 a ban on fuel exports to tackle domestic shortages and high prices. It lifted the ban on most oil products last week.

- OPEC maintains demand expectations

On Thursday, OPEC stuck to its forecast for relatively substantial growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024, citing signs of a resilient world economy this year and expected further demand gains in China.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report that world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, compared with growth of 2.44 million bpd in 2023.

Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.

A lifting of pandemic lockdowns in China has helped oil demand rise in 2023.

OPEC consistently forecasts stronger demand growth for next year than other forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA).

"In 2024, solid global economic growth, amid continued improvements in China, is expected to boost oil consumption further," OPEC said in the report.

The report also said that demand in the rest of this year and next could take a hit in some parts of the world and trimmed its forecasts for total world demand in the current quarter and the first three months of 2024.

OPEC said: "Looking ahead and despite the usual seasonal rise in heating oil demand, ongoing uncertainty and economic developments in OECD Europe and other areas are expected to impact oil demand in the remainder of 2023 and 2024."

The OPEC report also said OPEC oil production rose in September despite pledged OPEC+ supply cuts, driven by increases in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly oil market report that while the Israel-Hamas war had not yet directly impacted physical supply, oil markets would "remain on tenterhooks" as the crisis unfolds.

"The Middle East conflict is fraught with uncertainty, and events are fast developing," the IEA said in its report.

"Against a backdrop of tightly balanced oil markets anticipated by the IEA for some time, the international community will remain laser-focused on risks to the region's oil flows," the energy agency added.

Noting a "sharp escalation in geopolitical risk," the IEA said it would continue closely monitoring oil markets and "stands ready to act if necessary to ensure markets remain adequately supplied."



IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.


Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.


Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.