Analysts: Houthi Engagement in Gaza War Unlikely to Affect Peace Efforts in Yemen

Members of Houthi military forces parade in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, Yemen September 1, 2022. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS
Members of Houthi military forces parade in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, Yemen September 1, 2022. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS
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Analysts: Houthi Engagement in Gaza War Unlikely to Affect Peace Efforts in Yemen

Members of Houthi military forces parade in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, Yemen September 1, 2022. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS
Members of Houthi military forces parade in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida, Yemen September 1, 2022. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS

Analysts ruled out that the Houthi group’s involvement in the current war in Gaza would affect the ongoing peace efforts in Yemen.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, analysts said the Houthis, by announcing the targeting of Israel, sought to express popular support for the Palestinians, suggesting that Israel would respond by attacking Houthi military targets, while ruling out any US intervention, at least at the current stage.

On Tuesday, the Houthi group in Yemen officially claimed responsibility for bombing Israel with missiles and drones. The announcement came after the US and Israeli forces previously said the attacks came from the southern Red Sea.

Mustafa Naaman, the former Undersecretary of the Yemeni Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that the “Houthi endeavour” in Gaza will not have an impact on the internal situation and the ongoing negotiations between the parties to the Yemeni conflict.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Naaman said that he expects that the recent events would accelerate the closure of the Yemeni war and would see the start of addressing the humanitarian side.

For his part, Dr. Hisham Al-Ghannam, the General Supervisor of the Center for Security Research and National Security Programs at Naif Arab University for Security Sciences (NAUSS), explained that the Houthis have repeatedly announced that they were part of what they called the “axis of resistance and opposition,” and that they would engage in any battle involving this axis.

Al-Ghannam went on to say that the Houthi move fell within the framework of an expression of popular support for the Palestinians and would not impact the ongoing efforts in Yemen.

“The internal Yemeni situation is complex and more complicated than it appears to be... Certainly, the symbolic involvement in a battle far from Yemen will have no impact on the internal Yemeni negotiations, because the intra-Yemeni disputes have nothing to do with Palestine...” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Al-Ghannam also ruled out any “American intervention against the Houthis, unless their forces or interests are directly targeted.”



Lebanon War... Why is it Difficult for Netanyahu and Nasrallah to Back Down?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. AFP/Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. AFP/Reuters
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Lebanon War... Why is it Difficult for Netanyahu and Nasrallah to Back Down?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. AFP/Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. AFP/Reuters

Informed sources in Beirut told Asharq Al-Awsat that any diplomatic efforts to stop the ongoing war between Israel and Lebanon would face the obstacle of the main parties to the conflict — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah — finding it difficult to back down.

Why is Netanyahu refusing to back down?

The sources noted that the war in Lebanon has achieved for Netanyahu what he could not accomplish in Gaza. They summarized it as follows:

- Netanyahu framed the war with a unifying message that has gained consensus across the Israeli political spectrum: the return of the northern residents who were displaced after Hezbollah launched cross-border attacks following the Oct. 7 attacks in Gaza. This means that the Israeli military operations enjoy broad political and public backing.

- Netanyahu began the war by striking Hezbollah’s communication networks, inflicting unprecedented losses on the group and sidelining around 1,500 of its members from the battlefield.

- He dealt a near-fatal blow to the leadership of the Radwan Forces, the elite military wing of Hezbollah, managing to eliminate prominent figures, some of whom were listed as US targets due to attacks that occurred in Beirut four decades ago.

- Netanyahu can claim that Hezbollah initiated the war and that Israel’s only demand is the return of northern residents and ensuring their safety.

- Thus, it seems difficult for Netanyahu to back down from the demand of returning the displaced, which practically means disengaging the Lebanese front from the Gaza front.

Why is Nasrallah refusing to back down?

The sources pointed to the following reasons:

- It is hard for Nasrallah to accept a setback in a war that he initiated.

- He also finds it difficult to accept disengagement after Hezbollah has suffered unprecedented losses, unlike anything it faced in its previous confrontations with Israel, including the 2006 war.

- Accepting a setback would signal that Iran is not willing to take concrete steps to confront Israel.

- If Hezbollah agrees to disengage from Gaza without a ceasefire there, many would view the cross-border attacks launched by the party in support of the Palestinian enclave as a reckless gamble.

- A setback for Hezbollah would demoralize the Axis of Resistance and have a ripple effect on Gaza itself.

- Agreeing to a ceasefire without securing even "limited gains" would reinforce the perception that Nasrallah launched a war that most Lebanese reject, and that Hezbollah bears responsibility for the resulting losses.