Israelis on Thursday waited for final election results to confirm what they see taking shape: No majority of parliament seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies, or for the array of parties seeking to unseat him.
Difficult decisions lie in the weeks ahead, including whether some Jewish and Arab parties would team up in a historic alliance, or whether some parties that campaigned on ousting Netanyahu would toss that aside and join forces with the deeply divisive prime minister. While this plays out, Netanyahu remains in charge.
Final results could come as early as Thursday evening after about a half-million absentee ballots are counted from military personnel, diplomats, people in prisons and hospitals, and others. They are not expected to sway the results dramatically.
Local media projected 53 parliament seats for Netanyahu's bloc, 48 seats for opposition parties and 19 for Arab-led ones, which also want Netanyahu out.
Potential complications emerged. The head of the Central Elections Committee asked the Shin Bet intelligence service to investigate alleged foreign interference in the vote. The letter dated Wednesday mentions alleged funding by “foreign entities against the Israeli interest,” without specifics, and could not speak to the validity of the claims. It requests findings within the week. Israeli law requires election results to be certified by Nov. 4.
Netanyahu's Likud party swiftly seized on the request to the Shin Bet, while the opposition has warned against “scare tactics.”
Netanyahu's Likud targets Arab-led parties
Likud, despite receiving the most votes, earlier accused Arab-led parties of stealing the election and asked the election committee to investigate. It did not provide specific evidence to support its claims. The election committee has said the number of reported irregularities in the relatively calm election was low.
Even without a role in a coalition, Arab-led parties could support other Netanyahu opponents in the next parliament, set to convene on Nov. 10. That could include electing a new speaker, giving them control of the agenda and potentially allowing them to advance and pass legislation before a new government is formed.
Netanyahu's chief rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, in his first public statement since an address to supporters early Wednesday spoke of a government in service to all and reflecting the will of the people.
Eisenkot did not mention the prospect of joining forces with the Arab-led parties that had a strong showing, as some Arab citizens broke longstanding vows never to vote in a country where they have long faced discrimination. But he has said he is open to working with them to reach the 61-seat majority needed to control the 120-seat Knesset.
Ahmad Tibi, head of the Arab-led Joint List, told Army Radio he’s heard from the opposition bloc to discuss replacing the Knesset speaker, and he told them the party would support the bloc’s candidate. He also urged Eisenkot to have political courage.
The Joint List has noted the “unprecedented show of strength" by Arab voters and the Jewish voters “willing to swim against the tide of racism.”
There were small rallies overnight in Tel Aviv, and in far more conservative Jerusalem, in support of a coalition that includes Arab-led parties. Until 2021, no Arab party had joined a coalition government, and that was brief.
Israel’s president next week will task someone with forming the next government. It has traditionally been the leader of the party with the most votes, but that’s not required.
If a new government cannot be formed after multiple attempts, Israel would face a new election early next year. On Wednesday, President Isaac Herzog signaled he wanted to avoid that step – something Eisenkot has said as well.
New elections bring new questions, including whether Arab citizens would again go to the polls in large numbers and whether the tens of thousands of Israelis who flew home to vote would do it again. Many had said they took that step to save the country from Netanyahu.
A deeply divided Israel might see Netanyahu stay on Israel, already divided along multiple fault lines – Jews and Arabs, secular and religious – entered the election with huge and painful issues at stake.
Those include whether the fast-growing ultra-Orthodox population should remain exempted from compulsory military service in a country where many families have seen their sons and daughters killed in three years of inconclusive wars.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has been especially polarizing, with corruption allegations hanging over him along with accusations that he delayed making deals over the war in Gaza, including to free hostages, for political gain.
While many Israelis voted with security issues first in mind, the country’s international standing is also at stake after widespread criticism over the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and growing violence by Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank.
For Arab citizens, who make up 20% of Israel’s population, there is cautious hope of change. “God willing, we will have something for us in the government, something that will bring us our rights,” said Brosli Elias, a resident of Nazareth, one of Israel’s largest Arab cities.
Meanwhile, the threat of further strikes against Iran adds to the election uncertainty, as the Trump administration has spoken of new attacks after the midterm elections on Nov. 3. Experts have said Netanyahu could seize on a renewed all-out war to press for a unity government with him in charge.
That could delay what Netanyahu has long resisted: a public inquiry into the security failures that led to the deadliest extremist attack on Israel in the country’s history, the Hamas-led assault on Oct. 7, 2023, that sparked the war in Gaza.
