Report: EU Countries Order Only 60,000 Shells for Ukraine via New Scheme

A Ukrainian serviceman of the Spartan Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine stands in a shelter near artillery shells at a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine September 13, 2023. (Reuters)
A Ukrainian serviceman of the Spartan Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine stands in a shelter near artillery shells at a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine September 13, 2023. (Reuters)
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Report: EU Countries Order Only 60,000 Shells for Ukraine via New Scheme

A Ukrainian serviceman of the Spartan Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine stands in a shelter near artillery shells at a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine September 13, 2023. (Reuters)
A Ukrainian serviceman of the Spartan Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine stands in a shelter near artillery shells at a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine September 13, 2023. (Reuters)

European Union countries have placed orders for only 60,000 artillery shells under an EU scheme to help get 1 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine by next spring, according to people familiar with the figures.

The scheme was a centerpiece of an EU initiative to ramp up the supply of vital 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine, allowing countries to place orders with industry through contracts negotiated by the bloc's European Defense Agency (EDA).

The broader initiative, launched in March, offered various schemes to get 1 million shells and missiles to Ukraine within a year for the war against Russia's invasion.

Together, those schemes have yielded some 480,000 munitions, according to the EU - less than half of the target, with about four months to go.

The particularly small volume of orders for the scheme at the heart of the program highlights bigger struggles that the EU is facing in trying to hit the target.

In a sign of concern at the low volume of orders so far, a draft declaration for an EU summit next week "stresses the urgent need to accelerate the delivery of missiles and ammunition, notably under the one million rounds of artillery ammunition initiative".

Artillery rounds are a crucial element in the war of attrition between Ukrainian troops and Russia's invasion forces, with each side firing thousands of shells every day.

The European Defense Agency said in September that seven countries had ordered ammunition through the pioneering joint procurement scheme. Lithuania, Denmark and Luxembourg said they were among the seven.

The EDA did not specify the size of the orders. But people familiar with the figures told Reuters on condition of anonymity the total was just 60,000 shells.

Another option for EU members was to deliver from existing stocks, yielding some 300,000 shells and missiles, the EU says.

Other munitions have been ordered through a scheme that allows EU countries to piggy-back onto contracts signed by one "lead nation".

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said last month the EU would miss the 1 million target, echoing a view expressed privately by some diplomats and officials.

But others including EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell have insisted the goal remains.

Borrell hailed the plan to send 1 million shells to Ukraine within a year as "historic" when it was agreed in March. The initiative allows countries to get partial refunds on their orders through an EU-run fund, the European Peace Facility.

Different explanations

Officials and industry leaders have offered different explanations for the EU's struggle to meet the goal.

Some argue that many governments have simply not backed up their rhetoric about supporting Ukraine for the long haul by placing orders with arms firms.

Others insist that it takes time for industry to ramp up and restart production of such artillery shells, which until recently were not viewed as a priority for modern warfare.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said last week he thought the problems were more technical than political.

"People with special knowledge of how things work - how spare parts work, how chains of supply work - they have to sit down and sort it out," he said.

Some officials have also blamed a decision to restrict the joint procurement drive to companies from the EU and Norway.

Asked whether it could confirm the 60,000 figure, the European Defense Agency said it did not comment on numbers.

The EU's diplomatic service said only member countries could provide details of orders. But it stressed EU countries were supplying shells via various routes, not just joint procurement.

"Member states continue to deliver artillery ammunition to Ukraine, whether through stocks, redirection of existing orders or new procurement," spokesperson Peter Stano said in an email.

"The goal to deliver one million rounds of ammunition remains a political priority. We continue to encourage all member states to consider placing orders within the EDA framework contracts, as capacities remain available."



Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
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Aviation Experts: Russia's Air Defense Fire Likely Caused Azerbaijan Plane Crash

In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)

Aviation experts said Thursday that Russian air defense fire was likely responsible for the Azerbaijani plane crash the day before that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.
Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan's capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons still unclear and crashed while making an attempt to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea.
The plane went down about 3 kilometers (around 2 miles) from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before smashing into the ground and exploding in a fireball.
Other footage showed part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside down in the grass.
Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims with national flags at half-staff across the country on Thursday. Traffic stopped at noon, and signals sounded from ships and trains as it observed a nationwide moment of silence.
Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.
“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” The Associated Press quoted him as saying.
Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.
As the official crash investigation started, some experts alleged that holes seen in the plane’s tail section could indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was fended off on Wednesday, although federal authorities didn't report it.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the images of fragments of the crashed plane indicate that it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM.
“Much more to investigate, but at high level we'd put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket,” he said.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane's tail reveal the damage compatible with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
“It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.
Matveyev added that it remains unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane was hit.
“Perhaps some of the plane's systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions on landing at another venue in Russia.
Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website with good government connections, also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system as it was approaching Grozny. It questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the apparent drone raid in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya's Security Council, said that air defenses downed drones attacking the region on Wednesday.
Caliber also wondered why Russian authorities didn't allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.
Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”
Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defense fire as unfounded and unethical.
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine it.
According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.