Israel-Gaza: Navigating the Buffer Zone Dilemma

An Israeli Merkava tank near the separation barrier between southern Israel and Gaza (Reuters)
An Israeli Merkava tank near the separation barrier between southern Israel and Gaza (Reuters)
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Israel-Gaza: Navigating the Buffer Zone Dilemma

An Israeli Merkava tank near the separation barrier between southern Israel and Gaza (Reuters)
An Israeli Merkava tank near the separation barrier between southern Israel and Gaza (Reuters)

Inherently, humans are territorial. Throughout the agricultural revolution, spanning over 15 thousand years, land has been a focal point of conflict among peoples.

The possession of land equates to power and wealth, leading to wars of invasion and occupation, culminating in the era of colonization during the industrial revolution.

Even in today’s age, with the technological revolution, territorial wars and invasions persist, ranging from Ukraine to Gaza.

Land control remains a fundamental consideration in strategic and security calculations.

Geographic depth, in a way, is deemed essential for both individual and national security.

The spatial dimension can be translated into time, ensuring early warning of impending danger. The farther away the geographical threat, the more time is available to prepare for its deterrence.

The geographical buffer may be artificial or, more precisely, prearranged between certain countries.

It can serve as an alternative solution to military confrontation, particularly when the interests of these nations intersect.

In the Great Game between Russia and Britain in Central Asia, what is now known as Afghanistan was established.

This occurred after the English Lord Mortimer Durand drew a 2,670-kilometer line that did not define the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Consequently, Afghanistan can be seen as playing the role of a buffer state during that time.

Israel grapples with a geographical dilemma, lacking geographic depth in terms of its length and width.

For instance, Israel’s width in its narrowest region does not exceed 15 kilometers, situated between the West Bank and the sea.

From a purely security standpoint, this distance means that a single Katyusha rocket has the potential to disrupt life in Tel Aviv.

Israel is currently engaged in a campaign of eradication in Gaza, occasionally alluding to the establishment of buffer zones within the territory.

As for past experiences, Israel has experimented with buffer zones, notably through the use of smart fences, but these attempts have proven unsuccessful.

The limited size of the Gaza Strip (365 square kilometers) does not allow for the creation of buffer zones within it, particularly given its high population density.

Israel cannot maintain control within the buffer zones in the presence of fighters from Hamas and other organizations.

Therefore, the situation necessitates the complete elimination of all organizations in the sector. So far, the factor of time is working against Israeli forces.

If all organizations are eliminated, who will govern Gaza? Who will volunteer for such a task? Can the Security Council issue a resolution to manage the sector, considering the possibility of a Chinese or Russian veto?



Who’s in the Frame to Be Lebanon’s Next President?

The Lebanese Parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)
The Lebanese Parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)
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Who’s in the Frame to Be Lebanon’s Next President?

The Lebanese Parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)
The Lebanese Parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)

Lebanon's parliament will attempt to elect a new head of state on Thursday, with officials seeing better odds of success in a political landscape shaken by Israel's assault on Hezbollah and the toppling of the group's ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

The post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the sectarian power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022.

While there are always many Maronite hopefuls, including the leaders of the two largest Christian parties - Samir Geagea and Gebran Bassil - sources say the focus is currently on the following three names:

JOSEPH AOUN

General Joseph Aoun, 60, has been commander of the US-backed Lebanese army since 2017, leading the military through a devastating financial crisis that paralyzed much of the Lebanese state after the banking system collapsed in 2019.

On Aoun's watch, US aid continued to flow to the army, part of a US policy focused on supporting state institutions to curb the influence of the heavily armed, Iran-backed Hezbollah, which Washington deems a terrorist group.

Shortly after his appointment, the army waged an offensive to clear ISIS militants from an enclave at the Syrian border, drawing praise from the US ambassador at the time who said the military had done an "excellent job".

His training has included two infantry officer courses in the United States.

Lebanese politicians have said Aoun's candidacy enjoys US approval. A State Department spokesperson said it was "up to Lebanon to choose its next president, not the United States or any external actor".

Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa has said last week there was "no veto" on Aoun. But sources familiar with Hezbollah thinking say it will not support Aoun.

His candidacy has also been opposed by Lebanon's two largest Christian parties - the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement.

Three other former army chiefs - Emile Lahoud, Michel Suleiman and Michel Aoun - have served as president.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri - a Hezbollah ally - has said the constitution would need to be amended in order for Aoun to take the post. It currently forbids a serving state official from becoming head of state.

JIHAD AZOUR

Azour, 58, served as finance minister in the Western-backed government of former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora between 2005 and 2008, a period of intense political conflict in Lebanon pitting factions backed by Iran and Syria against others supported by the West.

Since 2017, he has served as Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He holds a PhD in International Finance and a post-graduate degree in International Economics and Finance, both from the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris.

He first emerged as a presidential candidate in 2023, when factions including both of the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement voted for him. He received 59 votes.

Hezbollah and its closest allies voted for Suleiman Franjieh in that session - the last time parliament attempted to elect a head of state. Franjieh secured 51 votes.

Hezbollah at the time described Azour as a confrontational candidate - a reference to his role in the Siniora cabinet.

Azour said at the time that his candidacy was not intended as a challenge to anyone, but rather "a call for unity, for breaking down alignments and for a search for common ground in order to get out of the crisis".

ELIAS AL-BAYSARI

Major-General Elias Baysari, 60, has been interim head of the General Security directorate since the term of his predecessor, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, ended in 2023 with no consensus among Lebanese factions on who should replace him.

The security agency Baysari runs is Lebanon's most powerful internal security force, running Lebanon's border crossings and domestic intelligence operations.

He was a little-known figure in Lebanese public life until his promotion to the head of General Security.

He holds a PhD in law from the Lebanese University.