Lebanon in 2023: Vacuum and Fears of Destructive War with Israel

 Smoke billows across the horizon along the hills in the Naqoura area of southern Lebanon following Israeli bombardment from a position along the border in northern Israel on December 24, 2023. (AFP)
Smoke billows across the horizon along the hills in the Naqoura area of southern Lebanon following Israeli bombardment from a position along the border in northern Israel on December 24, 2023. (AFP)
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Lebanon in 2023: Vacuum and Fears of Destructive War with Israel

 Smoke billows across the horizon along the hills in the Naqoura area of southern Lebanon following Israeli bombardment from a position along the border in northern Israel on December 24, 2023. (AFP)
Smoke billows across the horizon along the hills in the Naqoura area of southern Lebanon following Israeli bombardment from a position along the border in northern Israel on December 24, 2023. (AFP)

The developments in Lebanon in 2023 consolidated the “caretaker state” amid the ongoing vacuum in the presidency.

The country’s top post has been vacant since October 2022 and with the absence of a president, state institutions have started to operate in a caretaker capacity or have had the terms of their chiefs extended.

The crippling financial and economic crisis, which erupted in 2019, persisted with authorities failing to lift a finger to address it.

Politicians have tied any effort to address pending problems to the election of a president, however, they failed to reach a breakthrough in 2023 in spite of internal and foreign initiatives.

The “Shiite duo” of Hezbollah and the Amal movement, headed by parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, remains committed to its candidate, Suleiman Franjieh, leaders of the Marada Movement.

The opposition abandoned its candidate Michel Moawad in return for a deal with the Free Patriotic Movement over the election of former minister Jihad Azour. However, none of these moves led to any progress in resolving the impasse.

Paris had also favored Franjieh’s election, but it backed down after meeting with the members of the so-called international quintet that includes Saudi Arabia, the United States, Qatar and Egypt. The quintet, which also includes France, agreed on nominating another candidate.

As it stands, army commander General Jospeh Aoun is favorite to be elected even after his term as head of the military was extended for another year in 2023.

Observers have tied any breakthrough in the presidency to the war on Gaza, speculating that Lebanon may be part of a broader settlement in the region.

Vacuum spreads

The vacuum in the presidency spread to other state institutions. The government continues to operate in a caretaker capacity and legislative work has come to a standstill.

The majority of Christian MPs refuse to allow parliament to resume normal work before a president – who is always a Maronite Christian – is elected. They charge that amid a presidential vacuum, the parliament’s work must be restricted to electing a new head of state above anything else.

The vacuum has prevented the government from completing crucial military, security, judicial and financial appointments.

General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim retired in March, leading to the appointment of the most senior officer, Elias al-Baysari, as his successor in an acting capacity. Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh’s term ended in August, with his first deputy being named as his successor, but in an acting capacity.

Most recently and after much political squabbling, the parliament extended the terms of the leaders of security and military agencies for a whole year.

Back in May, parliament was forced – for the second time in as many years – to postpone for another year municipal elections.

Syrian refugees

The Syrian refugee file continued to fester in Lebanon. In October, the tensions between refugees and Lebanese boiled over with clashes erupting in the Mount Lebanon and northern regions. A number of people were killed and injured in the unrest.

Calls had mounted in 2022 for the return of the refugees to their home country given the hefty economic and financial price Lebanon continues to pay in hosting them.

The army has since intensified its border control measures to prevent the illegal entry of Syrians into Lebanon. The Interior Ministry has also cracked down on illegal refugees in the country.

Gas file

Lebanon was dealt a crushing blow in October with the announcement that no gas was found in offshore Block 9.

The block was the subject of a heated dispute between Lebanon and Israel. It was resolved through American mediation last year.

The Energy Ministry has sought to assure the Lebanese that gas may be found in other offshore blocks.

On the verge of war

Lebanon was plunged in yet another crisis with the eruption of Israel’s war on Gaza in October. Hezbollah has dragged Lebanon into the conflict by launching attacks against Israel from the South.

The clashes in the South are gradually escalating. Palestinian and Lebanese groups have also joined the fight alongside Hezbollah, which has so far lost over a hundred fighters.

There are fears that Israel may expand its war on Gaza into Lebanon.

Several international envoys have visited Lebanon to urge Hezbollah to cease its operations and withdraw to the region north of the Litani River in line with United Nations Security Council 1701 that helped end the last war between the Iran-backed party and Israel in 2006.

Hezbollah has remained unyielding in its position, saying it will implement the resolution once the war on Gaza is over.



Anxiety Rises in DR Congo Capital as M23 Rebels Advance in East 

Residents venture out onto the streets following clashes at Kadutu Market in Bukavu on February 18, 2025. (AFP)
Residents venture out onto the streets following clashes at Kadutu Market in Bukavu on February 18, 2025. (AFP)
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Anxiety Rises in DR Congo Capital as M23 Rebels Advance in East 

Residents venture out onto the streets following clashes at Kadutu Market in Bukavu on February 18, 2025. (AFP)
Residents venture out onto the streets following clashes at Kadutu Market in Bukavu on February 18, 2025. (AFP)

As Rwanda-backed rebels strolled through the streets of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo's second-largest city, President Felix Tshisekedi's office claimed it was actually still controlled by his army and "valiant" allied forces.

It was the latest jarring move from the 61-year-old leader that has fueled a sense of worry and panic 1,600 km (1,000 miles) away in the capital Kinshasa, where some residents are looking to move their families abroad amid open talk of a coup.

"There was never any question of fighting in Bukavu. It was clear to all the people on the ground that the Rwandans and their auxiliaries were going to make their entry," said one army general who expressed bafflement at a statement issued by the president's office on Sunday.

Tshisekedi, he added, "doesn't have the right sources."

Anxiety is visible on the streets of Kinshasa as the army puts up limited resistance against the M23 group's advance and residents question whether Tshisekedi grasps the risk it poses.

Embassies have begun using armored vehicles for trips to the airport and sending some staff across the Congo River to Brazzaville, capital of Republic of Congo.

Three Kinshasa-based government officials told Reuters they were making arrangements to get their families out of the country.

Banker Matondo Arnold said he had already sent his family to Brazzaville after the rebels seized Goma, eastern Congo's biggest city, in late January. "We never imagined Goma could fall," he said.

As talk about a possible coup spread, Justice Minister Constant Mutamba said on X that Congolese "will not accept any coup that involves the Rwandan army to destabilize the country's institutions."

But even a member of Tshisekedi's Sacred Union coalition said the anxiety was unmistakable.

"Oh yes, it's panic. Some people are desperate and they are courting embassies" in search of an exit.

SUMMIT SNUB

This M23 advance is the gravest escalation in more than a decade of the long-running conflict in eastern Congo, rooted in the spillover of Rwanda's 1994 genocide into Congo and the struggle for control of Congo's vast minerals resources.

Rwanda rejects allegations from Congo, the United Nations and Western powers that it supports M23 with arms and troops. It says it is defending itself against the threat from a Hutu militia, which it says is fighting with the Congolese military.

As the hunt for a diplomatic resolution stalls, with Tshisekedi refusing to negotiate with the rebels, his camp faults the international community for failing to stand up to Rwanda by imposing sanctions.

"It's not a bad thing to refuse dialogue with an armed group like M23. The M23 is Rwanda," said a lawmaker close to the president. "Why doesn't the West do anything?"

Tshisekedi has skipped two African-organized meetings this month addressing the fighting - a joint summit in Dar es Salaam of Southern and Eastern African leaders and the annual African Union summit in Addis Ababa.

Instead, he travelled to the Munich Security Conference where he accused his predecessor Joseph Kabila of sponsoring M23's military campaign, which Kabila's camp denied.

The decision by Tshisekedi, who spent much of his life in Brussels, to fly to Europe drew derision from the Congolese political establishment.

"The fact that an African president snubs the African Union summit and prefers instead a security conference in Europe is indicative of who sustains him," said one former senior official.

Some members of Congo's fractious opposition are openly predicting Tshisekedi will not last.

"His lack of legitimacy is now proven, making him less and less listened to and more and more rejected by the population every day," said Olivier Kamitatu, a Kabila-era minister and spokesperson for opposition politician Moise Katumbi.

"Tshisekedi did not understand the issues of the country and the region. He did not have enough intellectual heft to lead Congo," said Martin Fayulu, who came in second in the 2018 election that brought Tshisekedi to power.

But it is unclear who could pose the most legitimate challenge to Tshisekedi, said Congolese analyst Bob Kabamba of the University of Liege in Belgium.

"With the capture of Goma and Bukavu, no one is sure of Tshisekedi's ability to control the security and political situation," he said.