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Iraqi Govt Turns to Survey to Ask Citizens about Continuing Mission of Int’l Coalition

An Iraqi soldier salutes from a military vehicle as they take part in a parade marking the Iraqi Army's 103 anniversary in Baghdad's fortified Green Zone, Iraq, 06 January 2024. (EPA)
An Iraqi soldier salutes from a military vehicle as they take part in a parade marking the Iraqi Army's 103 anniversary in Baghdad's fortified Green Zone, Iraq, 06 January 2024. (EPA)
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Iraqi Govt Turns to Survey to Ask Citizens about Continuing Mission of Int’l Coalition

An Iraqi soldier salutes from a military vehicle as they take part in a parade marking the Iraqi Army's 103 anniversary in Baghdad's fortified Green Zone, Iraq, 06 January 2024. (EPA)
An Iraqi soldier salutes from a military vehicle as they take part in a parade marking the Iraqi Army's 103 anniversary in Baghdad's fortified Green Zone, Iraq, 06 January 2024. (EPA)

In an unusual step, the Iraqi government asked its citizens for their views about the continued deployment of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition in the country.

It sent people text messages on their mobile phones so they can reply as to whether they support or oppose the continued deployment.

The move took place days after a prominent militia leader was killed by a US strike.

The strike in Baghdad targeted Mushtaq Taleb al-Saidi, who was a leader of Harakat al-Nujaba who was involved in planning and carrying out attacks against American personnel in Iraq and Syria, said the Pentagon last week.

The Popular Mobilization Force, or PMF, a coalition of militias that is nominally under the control of the Iraqi military, said its deputy head of operations in Baghdad, identified as Abu Taqwa, had been killed "as a result of brutal American aggression."

Since the Israel-Hamas war began in October the US military has come under attack at least 100 times in Iraq and Syria, usually with a mix of rockets and one-way attack drones.

The United States has 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in neighboring Syria focused on preventing a resurgence of ISIS militants.

Abu Taqwa’s killing sparked outrage among Iran-aligned Shiite parties and armed factions that have demanded the pullout of American forces from Iraq.

Asharq Al-Awsat contacted Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's aides for further details about the new survey and what the government aims to achieve out of it but received no reply.

Soon after Abu Taqwa’s killing, the government announced that it was forming a committee to prepare the closing down of the international coalition's mission in the country.

"Government is setting the date for the start of the bilateral committee to put arrangements to end the presence of the international coalition forces in Iraq permanently," a statement from the prime minister's office said.

The committee would include representatives of the military coalition, a government official said.

Opinions have varied in Iraq about the text message survey. Some believe it aims to appease the pro-Iran factions, while others viewed it as pointless and won’t lead to any changes on the ground.

Others believe it is aimed at boosting the government by showing that it cares about what the people think and that it was not taking "fateful decisions unilaterally."

Former diplomat and ambassador Dr. Ghazi Faisal said it seems that the government was avoiding turning to parliament to discuss the withdrawal of the international forces in line with the strategic partnership and cooperation agreement signed between Baghdad and Washington.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said the agreement clearly states that an amendment to the deployment of forces must take place through negotiations.

The government ultimately wants to avoid heading to parliament to tackle this issue because it will "definitely" oppose ending the mission of the international coalition, he went on to say.

He explained that Kurdish, Sunni and some Shiite parties are opposed to the withdrawal and the way "Iran is trying to alter American-Iraqi relations through violence or through its proxies in Iraq."

The text messages are a means to pressure Washington, but they don’t reflect the government’s constitutional and legal responsibilities and its responsibilities in international and regional relations, said Faisal.

The parliament had in 2020 approved a decision that would bind the government to ending the mission of international forces. The decision was taken soon after the killing of Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and PMF deputy leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in a US strike near Baghdad airport in January 2020.

Professor at the University of Baghdad Ihssan Shmary questioned the purpose of the survey, saying it was "very strange".

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the survey holds no legal or constitutional basis. Moreover, the results could be falsified if a lot of money is poured into swaying the voters.

The results of national elections are cast in doubt "so how can we trust the results of an electronic survey?" he wondered.

The results will ultimately be used to create a political pressure card for or against the continued deployment of the forces, Shmary said.

The survey will have no impact on policy, especially since it is tackling an issue of higher national interests. So, the survey is nothing more than government propaganda aimed at sending messages to the armed factions, he remarked.

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Arab World

Istanbul Hosts Middle East, European FMs to Discuss Regional Crises

The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Türkiye and Pakistan meet in Amman on August 5. (Turkish Foreign Ministry)
The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Türkiye and Pakistan meet in Amman on August 5. (Turkish Foreign Ministry)
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Istanbul Hosts Middle East, European FMs to Discuss Regional Crises

The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Türkiye and Pakistan meet in Amman on August 5. (Turkish Foreign Ministry)
The foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Türkiye and Pakistan meet in Amman on August 5. (Turkish Foreign Ministry)

Foreign ministers from seven European and Middle Eastern countries will hold talks in Istanbul Friday focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and the crises in the Middle East.

Ministers from the so-called E3 group -- Britain, France and Germany -- will meet counterparts from the newly created R4 group comprising Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Türkiye and Pakistan to discuss the Palestinians, developments in Yemen and the Strait of Hormuz, and ways to end the Russia-Ukraine war, a Turkish foreign ministry source said.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is hosting the meeting, the first to bring together the two groups.

In chairing the talks, Fidan was to stress that "regional security first and foremost requires countries of the region to assume responsibility" and within that context, Türkiye "prioritizes strengthening cooperation mechanisms based on regional ownership".

He would also say "existing disputes should not be allowed to feed one another, conflicts should not be allowed to spread to new areas, and regional tensions should not be allowed to turn into broader instability".

Fidan will focus on the international community "increasing pressure on Israel" in response to its settlement expansion and its "encouragement of settler terrorism".

He will also underline Türkiye's support for Saudi Arabia's security in the face of Houthi attacks and the need for permanent freedom of navigation in the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Straits.

British foreign minister Ed Miliband's office said the talks would essentially revolve around "the Strait of Hormuz and the situation in Saudi Arabia".

"Despite positive progress from the US and regional partners, passage through the Strait remains under threat, with traffic through the waterway sharply down on pre-war levels," a foreign ministry statement said.

It said Miliband "will advocate for a diplomatic solution to the crisis that restores full navigational rights and freedoms" and stress "how Iranian tactics are being replicated across the region, with attacks on Saudi Arabia further destabilizing the region and increasing pressure on vital waterways and global chokepoints, such as Bab El-Mandeb and the Suez Canal."

"The UK is stepping up to help stabilize the region, having this week committed RAF Typhoons to defend Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks in their airspace," it added.

- Black Sea security -

Unrest in the Black Sea would also be a key focus, with the minister pointing to Türkiye's ongoing "warnings and proposals" to prevent the Russia-Ukraine war from spreading to the Black Sea and to draw a line under the civilian deaths there.

Armed attacks on commercial ships, often with drones, have multiplied in recent months as the war has spilled into the Black Sea, with Turkish ships increasingly in the firing line.

Last month, Türkiye sent a proposal to Russia and Ukraine to end the strikes, but it appears to have fallen on deaf ears with the attacks increasing in recent weeks, notably near Romania and Bulgaria.

NATO said Tuesday it was deploying additional planes, drones and radar systems to the Black Sea, calling for more "situational awareness" in the region through increased sensors and more data-sharing.

The E3 was set up more than 20 years ago to advance diplomatic coordination over Iran's nuclear program.

The R4 was formed this year and brings together Egypt with the signatories to the Makkah Defense Agreement -- a mutual defense pact set up by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan in August.

Arab World

Iraq Fears Return of ‘Shadow Factions’ to Regional ‘Unity of Fronts’ Campaign

Members of Harakat al-Nujaba movement attend a gathering in Baghdad on Oct. 8, 2023 (AFP)
Members of Harakat al-Nujaba movement attend a gathering in Baghdad on Oct. 8, 2023 (AFP)
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Iraq Fears Return of ‘Shadow Factions’ to Regional ‘Unity of Fronts’ Campaign

Members of Harakat al-Nujaba movement attend a gathering in Baghdad on Oct. 8, 2023 (AFP)
Members of Harakat al-Nujaba movement attend a gathering in Baghdad on Oct. 8, 2023 (AFP)

Fears are mounting in Iraq that armed factions’ refusal to surrender their weapons may be an attempt to buy time ahead of a possible resumption of the war with Iran and the revival of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” as Baghdad faces growing security and political pressure to prevent attacks on regional targets from Iraqi soil.

Political sources close to the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Iraq’s main Shiite political forces, said negotiations to bring all weapons under state control had made no tangible progress, with several factions yet to hand over the rockets and drones in their possession.

However, the sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that some alliance leaders considered it unlikely that the factions would attack countries in the region in support of Iran if the war resumed, given the potential repercussions for Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s government, which could face mounting regional and international pressure.

Nujaba Reaffirms Refusal to Surrender Weapons

Those assessments have failed to ease fears that smaller armed groups could resume attacks that would be difficult to attribute directly to major factions, amid rising regional tensions and continuing divisions in Iraq over weapons outside state control.

Underscoring resistance to any change in the factions’ military status, Abdul Qadir al-Karbalai, military deputy of the Harakat al-Nujaba movement, said Wednesday that the group would not participate in the political process and that its position remained unchanged.

In a statement, al-Karbalai rejected the terms “placing weapons under state control,” “handing over weapons” and “disarmament” in reference to what the group calls resistance weapons.

His remarks pose an additional challenge to the government’s efforts to bring weapons under state control, with concerns extending beyond the political standoff between Baghdad and the factions to the possibility of renewed attacks on regional targets from Iraqi territory.

‘Shadow Factions’

Iraqi newspaper Al-Mada, citing informed sources, reported that the closure of the al-Sheeb border crossing with Iran in Maysan province was not solely related to the technical reasons cited by the government.

The move also came amid security fears of a return by so-called “shadow factions,” small groups of five to 10 members suspected of being used to carry out attacks that would be difficult to trace to those responsible.

Security agencies have stepped up surveillance of suspected attack sites over the past two weeks, the newspaper’s sources said, after attacks targeting Saudi Arabia reportedly shifted from areas in the Najaf desert in July to locations near the al-Sheeb crossing in September.

The developments suggest that armed groups may be changing tactics, avoiding heavily monitored sites and seeking new areas from which to operate.

The assessments and the identities of those behind the reported attacks could not be independently verified.

The Iraqi government has maintained that the crossing’s closure is temporary and intended to improve operational efficiency.

Government spokesman Haider al-Aboudi denied any political motive, describing the closure as “a purely administrative measure that requires no political interpretation.”

Meanwhile, Prime Ministerial adviser Abdul Amir Taiban accused the Iranian side of “serious violations” of Iraqi sovereignty, creating chaos along the shared border and deliberately undermining Iraq’s economy through the smuggling of counterfeit currency and drugs.

Mounting US Pressure

The closure comes as Washington steps up pressure on Baghdad over cross-border trade with Iran.

AFP quoted an Iraqi source Wednesday confirming the closure, while an Iranian official said border crossings with Iraq remained open to travelers, although truck traffic was experiencing delays.

Two political sources said Washington was pressing Baghdad to close additional crossings with Iran. One said the US Treasury Department had raised the issue with al-Zaidi during his visit to New York last month.

Security concerns also extend beyond Iraq’s land borders.

A security source in Basra province said Wednesday that a drone fell into the sea about 200 meters from an oil tanker identified as the Corden Eikel, after its crew alerted Iraqi naval forces to the presence of two drones.

One crashed into the water, while the other disappeared from sight, the source said.

Meanwhile, Baghdad is pursuing diplomatic contacts with regional countries in an effort to contain the escalation.

Iraq’s Foreign Ministry said Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein and his Emirati counterpart, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, discussed by phone ways to create conditions conducive to peaceful understandings that could ease regional tensions and strengthen security and stability.

Arab World

Yemen’s Houthis Blow Up Roads, Loot Homes in Rural Taiz

A cargo truck overturns on a road between Lahj and Taiz after the Houthis blocked the main route (X)
A cargo truck overturns on a road between Lahj and Taiz after the Houthis blocked the main route (X)
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Yemen’s Houthis Blow Up Roads, Loot Homes in Rural Taiz

A cargo truck overturns on a road between Lahj and Taiz after the Houthis blocked the main route (X)
A cargo truck overturns on a road between Lahj and Taiz after the Houthis blocked the main route (X)

Houthi militias are tightening their grip on rural communities in southwestern Yemen, blowing up roads, erecting military barricades and digging trenches as abductions, home raids and attacks on drinking water sources disrupt daily life and raise fears of fresh displacement.

The crackdown is concentrated in the districts of Al-Shamayatayn and Al-Mawasit in Taiz province and neighboring Al-Maqatirah in Lahj, a vast, densely populated area of strategic importance.

The measures contrast sharply with the Houthis' efforts to restore normal life, win public acceptance of their rule and recruit supporters and fighters through various incentives.

The Yemeni army's Tur al-Baha military command said last Saturday that eight of its soldiers had been killed in Houthi shelling in Al-Maqatirah, without providing further details.

Local sources said Houthi fighters in Al-Shamayatayn had fired an artillery shell at soldiers gathered at a military facility.

Residents of Al-Maqatirah told Asharq Al-Awsat that Houthi gunmen had destroyed sections of roads connecting their villages to Al-Shamayatayn and the city of Al-Turbah.

Last Sunday, the Houthis blew up several culverts along the Hayjat al-Abd road, cutting off the main route linking Taiz to Lahj and Aden and forcing travelers and truck drivers onto the Al-Suha-Karbah road.

Five trucks carrying goods and essential supplies overturned on the alternative route on Tuesday, blocking traffic for hours and damaging large quantities of merchandise. The disruption came as areas under Houthi control faced severe food shortages.

The Yemeni government had improved the Al-Suha-Karbah road as an alternative to Hayjat al-Abd, which has repeatedly closed because of Houthi attacks and flooding. But its rugged terrain and narrow stretches make it unsuitable as a permanent replacement.

The Houthis resort to blowing up roads to impose collective punishment on the residents of Taiz and Lahj (X)

Villages cut off

The Houthis also blew up culverts along Naqil Musayr, a road connecting villages in western Al-Maqatirah to Al-Turbah, the administrative center of Al-Shamayatayn.

Residents must now walk to the city to shop and run errands. Vehicles can reach it only via the rugged Karbah road, a journey of at least three hours.

The group also blew up part of Naqil al-Khazrah, a stone stairway linking Al-Sharaf village and the Al-Jahili area in Al-Shamayatayn to villages in eastern Al-Maqatirah, forcing residents to take lengthy detours.

In Yemen, a naqil is a winding mountain route connecting higher elevations to foothills and valleys. Residents often build long stone stairways along these routes to make travel easier.

The blasts sent huge boulders crashing onto agricultural terraces, damaging farmland and nearby homes.

Residents of both districts told Asharq Al-Awsat that Houthi fighters had erected barricades and military outposts, dug trenches along roads connecting the districts and positioned weapons toward Al-Maqatirah.

The military buildup has left residents fearing they could be targeted on any pretext.

The Houthis have advanced only a few kilometers into Al-Maqatirah along the Hayjat al-Abd road, securing control of the route and blowing up its culverts. They also control the district's eastern areas.

Observers say the group appears satisfied, for now, with its hold over the high ground in Al-Shamayatayn overlooking Al-Maqatirah. Those positions put the district within range of Houthi fire and allow the group to monitor nearby military movements.

The Houthis blew up several rural roads after residents spent many years building them (Facebook)

Abductions and home raids

The Houthis abducted about 20 people in Qadas, in Al-Mawasit district, after a vehicle belonging to the group's so-called "Preaching Committee" caught fire.

The committee works to persuade residents to embrace the Houthis' ideology and sectarian views.

The group accused residents of Al-Mukayshah village of setting the vehicle ablaze and launched a manhunt, tightening security across the area.

Dozens of gunmen were deployed and new checkpoints set up, where passersby were forced to open their phones for inspection and explain why they were traveling.

In Al-Alqamah, west of Al-Shamayatayn, Houthi fighters also looted homes abandoned by residents who had fled fighting following the group's advance from Al-Wazi'iyah district.

Residents said the fighters broke down doors and entered the homes, claiming to be searching for weapons and accusing their owners of collaborating with the Yemeni army and the Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen's internationally recognized government.

But the raids went beyond searches. Fighters seized household belongings and loaded them onto vehicles before taking them out of the area.

The escalating restrictions, raids and abductions have heightened fears across rural Taiz that hundreds more residents could be forced to flee their homes for Lahj and Aden.