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Russian Gazprom Neft Forecasts Slight Surplus in Global Oil Market

Oil storage tanks in western France. (AFP)
Oil storage tanks in western France. (AFP)
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Russian Gazprom Neft Forecasts Slight Surplus in Global Oil Market

Oil storage tanks in western France. (AFP)
Oil storage tanks in western France. (AFP)

The head of Russian Gazprom Neft said on Saturday he sees no need for additional oil supply cuts by OPEC+ oil producers, days before the group is due to meet on output policy.

He remarked that there was a slight surplus in the global oil market.

OPEC+ have agreed to voluntary output cuts totaling about 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter, led by Saudi Arabia rolling over a 1 million bpd voluntary reduction.

OPEC+ producers are scheduled to hold a meeting of a key ministerial panel on Feb 1 and group sources have said that it will likely decide its oil production levels for April and beyond in the coming weeks, Reuters reported.

"OPEC+ has already decided on cuts, cuts actually start now, in January, on the one hand. On the other hand, we are approaching the spring season, a seasonal increase in oil demand. This will happen soon enough, in two months," Gazprom Neft CEO Alexander Dyukov told reporters.

"In my opinion, at the moment there is no need (to adjust the OPEC+ deal)."

Dyukov also said that the company plans to increase oil refining volumes and hydrocarbon output in 2024, without providing figures, while Gazprom Neft's investments are seen unchanged this year.

Russia has reached oil and oil products voluntary export cuts of 500,000 barrels per day in January, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Saturday, adding that the global oil market is balanced.

He said that Russian exports of oil to India are going according to plan, commenting after Reuters reported that about dozen tankers, loaded with 10 million barrels of Russian Sokol grade crude oil, have been stranded off the coast of South Korea for weeks.

Separately, Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said on Saturday that the country's oil production will likely stay broadly unchanged this year, the RIA news agency reported.

Russian oil and gas condensate production declined slightly last year to 530 million metric tons (10.6 million barrels per day).

Interfax news agency also quoted Shulginov as saying that Russia has cut gasoline exports following an incident at the NORSI oil refinery.

The outage has sparked concerns about potential gasoline shortages across the country and there have been media reports suggesting that the government was considering imposing an export ban on the fuel, as it did last autumn.

Novak said on Saturday that repair work on Lukoil's NORSI oil refinery will take at least a month or a month and a half, TASS news agency reported. Equipment at the refinery was damaged in an accident early this week.

"The company is assessing technical solutions for restoration, assessing the possibility of quickly restoring equipment; this will determine how long it will take. That's at least around 1-1.5 months," Novak was quoted as saying by TASS.

The damage to a catalytic cracking unit at the Norsi facility slashed gasoline output. Russia’s oil-processing volumes declined further in the first half of January due to the incident.

- Russian gas

Russia is ready to hold talks with the European Union on natural gas supplies as a transit deal with Ukraine expires at the end of 2024, Novak was quoted as saying by several news agencies on Saturday.

Under a five-year deal agreed between Moscow and Kyiv in 2019, Russia is exporting gas to Europe via Ukraine and pays Ukraine for the usage of its pipeline network.

"If the other party EU wishes, we are ready to discuss. So far we don't see such a desire," Novak was quoted as saying by the RIA news agency.

A European Union official on Friday declined to speculate on whether the Ukraine transit deal would be extended beyond the end of 2024, but said the bloc was assessing all scenarios to ensure its preparedness.

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Business

IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
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IMF and Arab Monetary Fund Sign MoU to Enhance Cooperation

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA
The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki - SPA

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference on Emerging Market Economies (EME) to enhance cooperation between the two institutions.

The MoU was signed by IMF Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva and AMF Director General Dr. Fahad Alturki, SPA reported.

The agreement aims to strengthen coordination in economic and financial policy areas, including surveillance and lending activities, data and analytical exchange, capacity building, and the provision of technical assistance, in support of regional financial and economic stability.

Both sides affirmed that the MoU represents an important step toward deepening their strategic partnership and strengthening the regional financial safety net, serving member countries and enhancing their ability to address economic challenges.

Business

Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
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Saudi Chambers Federation Announces First Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council

File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT
File photo of the Saudi flag/AAWSAT

The Federation of Saudi Chambers announced the formation of the first joint Saudi-Kuwaiti Business Council for its inaugural term (1447–1451 AH) and the election of Salman bin Hassan Al-Oqayel as its chairman.

Al-Oqayel said the council’s formation marks a pivotal milestone in economic relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, reflecting a practical approach to enabling the business sectors in both countries to capitalize on promising investment opportunities and strengthen bilateral trade and investment partnerships, SPA reported.

He noted that trade between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reached approximately SAR9.5 billion by the end of November 2025, including SAR8 billion in Saudi exports and SAR1.5 billion in Kuwaiti imports.

Business

Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.