The ruling coalition in Iraq has started drawing up the political scene that will be established from the upcoming parliamentary elections, three sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Asharq Al-Awsat received a copy of a study, completed by the ruling Coordination Framework alliance, that showed that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will emerge with a powerful coalition that makes up a third of Shiite seats in parliament.
The elections are expected to be held in 2025, but no official date has been set for them yet.
The Framework based its study on the results of the provincial elections that were held in October, a source, who had taken part in the study, told Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity.
The coalition now views Sudani as a potential rival and heavyweight in the Shiite political scene, said another source.
The PM is expected to win some 60 seats in the elections, even though he had not taken part in the October polls, it noted.
The study acknowledged that Sudani had in recent months forged “flexible” alliances with Shiite powers. The source said the Framework had not fully understood his ability to form such alliances given the deep rivalry between the parties that make up the coalition.
Sudani has effectively emerged as a figure to reckon with in the Shiite equation and could emerge as a stronger player in parliament after next year’s elections, said the source.
Sudani’s new alliance
The study said Sudani’s new alliance includes three provincial governors who had emerged victorious in the October elections. It also includes rising Shiite forces and other traditional ones.
The study identified the three figures as Basra Governor Asaad al-Eidani, Karbala Governor Nassif al-Khattabi and Wasit Governor Mohammed al-Mayahi.
The Framework had tried and failed to form alliances that would have prevented the winning governors from renewing their terms at the heads of local governments in their cities.
The governors have since distanced themselves from the Framework, revealed the sources.
A third source said Sudani’s other allies are comprised of political forces that emerged from the October 2019 popular protests, rising local forces that are not represented in parliament, and traditional parties that are close to Iran and that have achieved noticeable results in the elections, such as the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and al-Fadila party.
In total, these powers won 25 seats in the provincial elections.
The three sources predicted that Sudani alone will win some ten seats, while his allies would win 60 in the parliamentary elections, reaping more than a third of the 180 Shiite seats, according to Framework estimates.
New Shiite shift
The source said the political map drawn by the study showed to Framework leaders that they would be confronted with a new shift in the Shiite equation in Iraq that could even lead to the breakup of the coalition itself and form a new equation altogether.
The study predicted that former PM Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition is set to gain 25 seats in the parliamentary elections, Ammar al-Hakim's Hikma movement and former PM Haidar al-Abadi's Nasr coalition 21, and leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq party Qais al-Khazali and leader of the Badr organization Hadi al-Ameri 24, while the remaining seats will be won by other Shiite forces.
The study ruled out the possibility of the Sadrist movement, led by influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, winning more than 70 seats in the elections, should he decide to take part in the vote. Sadr quit political life in 2022. He had won over 70 seats in the 2021 elections.
The Framework expects Sadr to win 60 seats “at best”, said the sources. They noted that Sadr was no longer the sole figure in Iraq with the ability to mobilize the masses. Maliki and others had decided to adopt this approach since the provincial elections.
Alarming figures
On Sudani’s political future, the sources stated that the number of seats the PM could win as revealed by the study have alarmed the Framework.
They predicted that the premier could be offered another term in office in return for withdrawing from the polls and perhaps allowing his allies to run uncontested so that they could rejoin the Framework.
Sudani did not run in the local elections to avoid a clash with the Framework. The PM is the leader of the Al-Furatayn party that he founded in 2019 after splitting with Maliki’s State of Law coalition in wake of the popular protests that erupted late that year.
The leaders of the Framework are seriously dealing with the outcomes of the study. It remains to be seen how it will deal with Sudani’s chances in the parliamentary elections and if Iran will not object to the suggestion to offer him a second term as PM, said the sources.
