Türkiye, Iran and Morocco Increase their Influence in the Sahel  

Nigerien security officers face demonstrators gathered in front of the French base in Niamey on September 2. (AFP)
Nigerien security officers face demonstrators gathered in front of the French base in Niamey on September 2. (AFP)
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Türkiye, Iran and Morocco Increase their Influence in the Sahel  

Nigerien security officers face demonstrators gathered in front of the French base in Niamey on September 2. (AFP)
Nigerien security officers face demonstrators gathered in front of the French base in Niamey on September 2. (AFP)

Türkiye, Iran and Morocco are stepping up their initiatives towards ruling military regimes in the African Sahel, seeking to diversify their partners, in the wake of France's withdrawal from the region.

Standing in front of the Burkina Faso television cameras, the director of the Turkish Space Agency displayed a catalog of fighter planes and combat helicopters, which is tempting for military regimes fighting terrorist groups, AFP said in a report on Monday.

The Burkinabe Foreign Minister, Karamoko Jean Marie Traoré, then reminded him of one of the mantras of the Sahelian regimes whose armies are underequipped: “For us it is a question of developing endogenous capacities in order to reduce our dependence.”

They are dependent on foreign forces, notably from France and other Western countries, which deployed in the region more than a decade ago and are reluctant to deliver offensive equipment to armies accused of committing abuses against civilian populations.

And while the French troops were packing their bags to leave the Sahel region, combat drones delivered by Türkiye became the centerpieces of Mali and Burkina Faso’s armies, which are both engaged in conflicts.

In early 2024, Mali received a new batch of Turkish Baykar drones, prized for their performance, earning the CEO of the manufacturing company, Haluk Bayraktar, a decoration in Ouagadougou in April bestowed by Burkina's strongman, Captain Ibrahim Traoré.

“The defense sector is the driving force behind the Turkish foreign policy in African countries,” said Federico Donelli, a political scientist and author of the book “Turkey in Africa.”

He explained that while Moscow is imposing itself as the main ally of military regimes in the Sahel region, Ankara is pursuing an “invasive” policy by trying to position itself as an alternative to both the Europeans and Russia.

According to the Institute for International Political Studies – ISPI, former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu “was the first high-level international figure to meet the military council in Mali after the August 2020 coup.”

It added that Ankara has adopted a conciliatory position with the military council in Niger, which borders Libya, where Ankara has many interests.

Ankara is also developing a project for a trans-Saharan corridor linking the Gulf of Guinea countries to Algeria, another North African stronghold of Turkish investment, according to Donelli.

Competing with Morocco, Iran

Morocco had kicked off a rival project. In September, Rabat said it offers to “make its road, port and rail infrastructures available to the Sahel countries, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Niger,” to strengthen their international trade.

In January 2024, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso said they withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

“Türkiye has military capabilities. We have had excellent relations with Morocco since independence and they are more about economic development,” according to a government source in Niger.

Morocco and Türkiye, which enjoy longstanding influence in the region, could face new competition from Iran.

Since 2020, Tehran has increased its influence in the region, particularly amid the coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

In October, Tehran signed several cooperation agreements with Burkina Faso in the fields of energy, urban planning, higher education and construction.

At the end of January, Tehran, a producer of combat drones, announced the establishment of two universities in Mali, and the signing of various cooperation agreements.

Thierry Coville from the Paris-based Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) said the Iranians sign dozens of agreements and none of them work. “They don't have the funding to support deals, or to compete seriously with Türkiye or Saudi Arabia,” he added.

But could Iran, which has increased its production of enriched uranium to 60%, eventually covet the uranium reserves of Niger that have been exploited by the French company Orano?

“This is our resource; we can sell it to anyone we want,” said a Nigerian government source.



What to Know about the Tensions between Iran and the US before Their Third Round of Talks

The flags of US and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. Iran and US will hold third round of nuclear talks on 26 April 2025, in Muscat. (EPA)
The flags of US and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. Iran and US will hold third round of nuclear talks on 26 April 2025, in Muscat. (EPA)
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What to Know about the Tensions between Iran and the US before Their Third Round of Talks

The flags of US and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. Iran and US will hold third round of nuclear talks on 26 April 2025, in Muscat. (EPA)
The flags of US and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. Iran and US will hold third round of nuclear talks on 26 April 2025, in Muscat. (EPA)

Iran and the United States will hold talks Saturday in Oman, their third round of negotiations over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program.

The talks follow a first round held in Muscat, Oman, where the two sides spoke face to face. They then met again in Rome last weekend before this scheduled meeting again in Muscat.

Trump has imposed new sanctions on Iran as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign targeting the country. He has repeatedly suggested military action against Iran remained a possibility, while emphasizing he still believed a new deal could be reached by writing a letter to Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to jumpstart these talks.

Khamenei has warned Iran would respond to any attack with an attack of its own.

Here’s what to know about the letter, Iran’s nuclear program and the tensions that have stalked relations between Tehran and Washington since the 1979 revolution.

Why did Trump write the letter? Trump dispatched the letter to Khamenei on March 5, then gave a television interview the next day in which he acknowledged sending it. He said: “I’ve written them a letter saying, ‘I hope you’re going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it’s going to be a terrible thing.’”

Since returning to the White House, the president has been pushing for talks while ratcheting up sanctions and suggesting a military strike by Israel or the US could target Iranian nuclear sites.

A previous letter from Trump during his first term drew an angry retort from the supreme leader.

But Trump’s letters to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in his first term led to face-to-face meetings, though no deals to limit Pyongyang’s atomic bombs and a missile program capable of reaching the continental US.

How did the first round go? Oman, a sultanate on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, hosted the first round of talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The two men met face to face after indirect talks and immediately agreed to this second round in Rome.

Witkoff later made a television appearance in which he suggested 3.67% enrichment for Iran could be something the countries could agree on. But that’s exactly the terms set by the 2015 nuclear deal struck under US President Barack Obama, from which Trump unilaterally withdrew America.

Witkoff hours later issued a statement underlining something: “A deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal.” Araghchi and Iranian officials have latched onto Witkoff’s comments in recent days as a sign that America was sending it mixed signals about the negotiations.

Yet the Rome talks ended up with the two sides agreeing to starting expert-level talks this Saturday. Analysts described that as a positive sign, though much likely remains to be agreed before reaching a tentative deal.

Why does Iran’s nuclear program worry the West? Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, its officials increasingly threaten to pursue a nuclear weapon. Iran now enriches uranium to near weapons-grade levels of 60%, the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program to do so.

Under the original 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67% purity and to maintain a uranium stockpile of 300 kilograms (661 pounds). The last report by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran’s program put its stockpile at 8,294.4 kilograms (18,286 pounds) as it enriches a fraction of it to 60% purity.

US intelligence agencies assess that Iran has yet to begin a weapons program, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”

Ali Larijani, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, has warned in a televised interview that his country has the capability to build nuclear weapons, but it is not pursuing it and has no problem with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspections. However, he said if the US or Israel were to attack Iran over the issue, the country would have no choice but to move toward nuclear weapon development.

“If you make a mistake regarding Iran’s nuclear issue, you will force Iran to take that path, because it must defend itself,” he said.

Why are relations so bad between Iran and the US? Iran was once one of the US’s top allies in the Middle East under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who purchased American military weapons and allowed CIA technicians to run secret listening posts monitoring the neighboring Soviet Union. The CIA had fomented a 1953 coup that cemented the shah’s rule.

But in January 1979, the shah, fatally ill with cancer, fled Iran as mass demonstrations swelled against his rule. The revolution followed, led by Khomeini, and created Iran’s theocratic government.

Later that year, university students overran the US Embassy in Tehran, seeking the shah’s extradition and sparking the 444-day hostage crisis that saw diplomatic relations between Iran and the US severed. The Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s saw the US back Saddam Hussein. The “Tanker War” during that conflict saw the US launch a one-day assault that crippled Iran at sea, while the US later shot down an Iranian commercial airliner that the American military said it mistook for a warplane.

Iran and the US have see-sawed between enmity and grudging diplomacy in the years since, with relations peaking when Tehran made the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. But Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, sparking tensions in the Middle East that persist today.