Iraqi former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has sent “secret messages” to head of the Sadrist movement influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr about the possibility of him returning to political life through the next parliamentary elections, five Shiite sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.
The messages, which were delivered by mediators, also did not rule out the possibility of holding early elections if necessary.
The sources said Maliki met over the past two weeks figures close to Sadr to explain his position on the elections and the amendments he is seeking over the electoral law.
Asharq Al-Awsat had reported on Saturday that Maliki was drafting a new law with amendments that would lower the chances of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani of winning a sizable number of seats at the legislature.
The sources added that the amendments would “set the balances within the Coordination Framework” alliance in advance to prevent one single Shiite ally from reaping the largest number of seats.
Early elections?
The five sources said Maliki was not the only Shiite figure trying to contact Sadr. Rather, figures such as Ammar al-Hakim and Hadi al-Ameri had asked Maliki to inquire about the cleric’s plans to return to political life.
At the moment, mediators are delivering the messages between the Framework and Sadrist movement about the proposed amendments.
They were surprised to learn that Maliki and Sadr’s positions on the amendments “may be almost aligned,” stated the sources.
Maliki had in recent days been mulling the benefits or not of holding early elections, saying he was open to discussing the issue with the Sadrists.
A source from the Sadrist movement said: “Maliki is certain Sadr will take part in the next elections. He implied to the mediators that he was prepared to reach an understanding with the Sadrists over the best version of the electoral law that would pave the way for Sadr’s strong return to the political scene.”
Three sources said Maliki has yet to receive a “frank and direct response from Sadr”, but the mediators said the proposed amendments “may be acceptable.”
Sadr has yet to comment on any of the information about the Framework’s preparations for the elections.
His associates refused to comment to Asharq Al-Awsat on whether messages were indeed exchanged between him and the Framework.
One associate said: “Sadr is busy these days with collecting aid to the Palestinians in Gaza.”
The cleric had on Monday launched a donation campaign to help the people of Gaza.
Political activist in the Sadrist movement Issam Hussein ruled out the possibility of a potential mediation with Sadr.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Framework was trying to drag the movement into a heated rivalry with its own competing parties.
The Framework is a coalition of Shiite groups that are aligned with Iran. Their alliance helped secure Sudani’s appointment as prime minister.
Hussein added that the Framework is expecting Sudani to win several seats in the next elections, which could mark the beginning of the end of the coalition in its current form.
The Framework is expecting the PM to secure around 200,000 votes in Baghdad, which according to the current law, will win him 15 seats. The proposed amendments, however, would see those votes reduced to one seat. This is at the heart of the dispute within the Framework.
Asharq Al-Awsat had previously reported that the Framework believes that Sudani may win 60 seats at the new parliament even though he didn’t run in local elections.
Another source told Asharq Al-Awsat that Maliki was preparing for the worst-case scenario after he realized that even with the absence of his fiercest rival - Sadr - from the political scene, he was still unable to secure his goals.
It is too soon to say whether Maliki’s time with the Framework is coming to an end, it added.
‘Deepest concern’
The Framework has for weeks been speculating whether a new coalition would be formed. It would bring together Sudani and powerful conservative Shiite figures that are backed by the Asaib Ahl al-Haq movement headed by Qais Khazali.
Maliki believes that an alliance between Sudani and Khazali would mean the end of the Framework, which would have dire consequences, said two sources.
Coordination between Sudani and Khazali would mean the PM would emerge as the most powerful figure after the elections, said another source.
Confronted with these possibilities, Maliki is encouraging the Sadrists to return to politics and prevent the formation of powerful Shiite alliance that “could slip out of his control,” it went on to say.
An alliance between Sudani and Khazali “worries Maliki deeply, which is why he is seeking to counterbalance it by teaming up with Sadr.”
Another source explained that Maliki likely shares the Iranian view that keeping Sadr isolated only deepens the divisions between the Shiites that could spiral into unrest.
