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OPEC Sees Robust Summer Oil Demand

FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organization of the Petroleoum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria June 19, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organization of the Petroleoum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria June 19, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
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OPEC Sees Robust Summer Oil Demand

FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organization of the Petroleoum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria June 19, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Organization of the Petroleoum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria June 19, 2018. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

OPEC predicted robust fuel use in the summer months on Thursday and stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025.
Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.
A boost to economic growth could give extra tailwind to oil prices, which have rallied above $90 a barrel this year on tighter supply and war in the Middle East.
OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, last week agreed to keep oil output cuts in place until the end of June.
"Despite some downside risks, the continuation of the momentum seen in the beginning of the year could result in further upside potential for global economic growth in 2024," OPEC said in the report.
Looking ahead to the summer, when fuel demand rises seasonally as people travel more, OPEC said global jet/kerosene fuel demand will rise by 600,000 bpd year on year in the second quarter, gasoline by 400,000 bpd and diesel by 200,000 bpd.
Following last week's meeting of a panel of top OPEC+ ministers, the full group will meet in June to decide whether to extend output cuts further or return some supply to the market.
"The robust oil demand outlook for the summer months warrants careful market monitoring, amid ongoing uncertainties, to ensure a sound and sustainable market balance," the report said.
OPEC sees world economic growth of 2.8% in 2024, steady from last month, and said the US economy was set to give the traditional summer boost to fuel demand.
"The upcoming driving season in the US is expected to provide the usual additional demand for transportation fuels," OPEC said.

The OPEC+ alliance has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. A new cut of 2.2 million bpd for the first quarter took effect in January and was later extended to cover the second quarter.
The OPEC report said OPEC oil production was steady in March, rising by 3,000 bpd to 26.60 million bpd.
Demand for OPEC crude this year is set to average 28.5 million bpd, the report said, up 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast.

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Fire, Smoke Upend Western Canada’s Summer Tourism Season

A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
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Fire, Smoke Upend Western Canada’s Summer Tourism Season

A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)

Severe wildfire seasons are increasingly hurting western Canada's lucrative tourism industry, with some visitors beginning to avoid the busy late-summer months due to concerns about uncontrolled blazes, smoke-filled skies and road closures.

After a scorching start to July, nearly 600 wildfires are now ablaze across British Columbia and Alberta, including a huge fire that this week devastated the picturesque tourist town of Jasper in the Canadian Rockies.

Dozens of communities, including popular holiday spots in British Columbia's Kootenay region, are under evacuation orders and several highways are closed.

This year's surge in wildfire activity comes after Canada endured its worst-ever year for wildfires in 2023, when more than 15 million hectares (37 million acres) burned, including parts of the city of West Kelowna in the heart of British Columbia's wine region.

Ellen Walker-Matthews, head of the Thompson Okanagan Tourism Association, said the industry was seeing a lot more last-minute travel decisions instead of booking in advance.

"It's a huge blow. July and August are traditionally the busiest months in the region," said Walker-Matthews, adding that while her region has been relatively unscathed by wildfires this summer, some visitors are choosing to avoid interior British Columbia altogether.

The members of the British Columbia Lodging and Campgrounds Association are reporting a 5-15% drop in bookings from a year ago, with the biggest declines coming from the hotter Okanagan and Cariboo regions, said Joss Penny, who heads the association.

"The concern is that this is something we have to live with and we have it every year now," said Penny.

Although wildfires in Canada's forests are natural and common, scientists say drier, hotter conditions fueled by climate change are leading to more volatile and frequent blazes.

'SMOKEY SKIES'

Some events, like the Salmon Arm Roots and Blues Festival, usually held in August, have now been rescheduled to earlier in the summer to avoid what is now seen as peak smoke season. The festival, which was cancelled last year due to nearby wildfires, was this year moved to July to benefit from "less smokey skies."

Wildfires and extreme climatic events are prompting tourists to "change their plans not just temporarily, but permanently," said Elizabeth Halpenny, a tourism researcher and professor at the University of Alberta, noting that seasonal workers in the sector are often the hardest hit as they have few protections during a bad season or amid a cataclysmic fire.

Tourism contributed C$7.2 billion to the British Columbia economy in 2022, and C$9.9 billion to Alberta in 2023, according to the latest government data.

Jasper National Park is one of Canada's premier tourist destinations, with more than 2 million visitors a year flocking to see its pristine mountain landscapes and abundant wildlife, including grizzly bears, moose and elk.

Kelly Torrens, vice-president of product at international tour company Kensington Tours, described western Canada as a bucket-list destination. But the company now has 49 trips that were supposed to pass through Jasper this season in limbo. Six others were forced to evacuate the park when the fire hit.

Parks Canada has cancelled all camping reservations within Jasper National Park until Aug. 6 and with potentially 50% of the town's structures destroyed by fire, the cleanup and rebuild could take years.

Halpenny is among those hedging their bets.

"I've booked a campsite stay in the mountain parks but at the same time, I booked a campsite out on the prairie somewhere and that's my backup plan because I don't want to miss out on my vacation with my family."