Venezuela to Accelerate Cryptocurrency Shift as US Sanctions Return

Encouraged by US licenses allowing sales, oil exports reached some 900,000 barrels per day in March, the highest in four years. Reuters
Encouraged by US licenses allowing sales, oil exports reached some 900,000 barrels per day in March, the highest in four years. Reuters
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Venezuela to Accelerate Cryptocurrency Shift as US Sanctions Return

Encouraged by US licenses allowing sales, oil exports reached some 900,000 barrels per day in March, the highest in four years. Reuters
Encouraged by US licenses allowing sales, oil exports reached some 900,000 barrels per day in March, the highest in four years. Reuters

Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA plans to increase digital currency usage in its crude and fuel exports as the US reimposes oil sanctions on the country, three people familiar with the plan said.
The US Treasury Department last week gave PDVSA's customers and providers until May 31 to wind down transactions under a general license it did not renew due to a lack of electoral reforms, Reuters reported. The move will make it more difficult for the country to increase oil output and exports as companies will have to wait for individual US authorizations to do business with Venezuela.
PDVSA since last year had been slowly moving oil sales to USDT, a digital currency also known as Tether whose value is pegged to the US dollar and designed to maintain a stable value. The return of oil sanctions is speeding up the shift, a move to reduce the risk of sale proceeds getting frozen in foreign bank accounts due to the measures, the people said.
"We have different currencies, according to what is stated in contracts," Venezuelan oil minister Pedro Tellechea told Reuters last week, adding that in some contracts digital currencies might be the preferred payment method.
The US dollar is the preferred currency for transactions in the global oil market. Even though they are emerging in some countries, payments in cryptocurrency are not frequent.
Tether said in an email it respects the US Treasury's list of sanctioned entities and "is committed to working to ensure sanction addresses are frozen promptly."
Last year, PDVSA was rocked by a corruption scandal after the discovery of some $21 billion in unaccounted receivables for oil exports in recent years, partially related to prior transactions involving other cryptocurrencies.
The nation's oil exports have increased under Tellechea, who took over Venezuela's oil ministry following the scandal. Encouraged by US licenses allowing sales, exports reached some 900,000 barrels per day in March, the highest in four years.
SLOWLY BUT SURELY
By the end of the first quarter, PDVSA had moved many spot oil deals not involving swaps to a contract model demanding prepayment for half of each cargo's value in USDT.
PDVSA also is requiring any new customer applying to conduct oil transactions to hold cryptocurrency in a digital wallet. The requirement has been enforced even in some old contracts that do not specifically state the use of USDT, one of the people said.
In October, when Washington issued the six-month license that allowed trading houses and former PDVSA customers to resume business with Venezuela, most of them resorted to intermediaries to meet the digital transaction requirements.
"USDT transactions, as PDVSA is demanding them to be, don't pass any trader's compliance department, so the only way to make it work is working with an intermediary," one trader said, referring to how unusual it still is to pay for oil in digital currencies.
PDVSA has relied on middlemen for its own oil sales, especially to China, since the US in 2020 imposed secondary sanctions on Venezuela, disrupting its relationship with large trading partners.
LESS CASH
Increasingly relying on middlemen for transactions could help PDVSA skirt sanctions, but will mean a smaller portion of oil proceeds will end up in its pockets.
Minister Tellechea last week said the country expects to continue signing contracts and crude and gas project expansions during the 45-day wind down period set by the US, and will ask potential clients to request specific licenses after that.
Oil analysts expect that even if Washington promptly issues individual authorizations, Venezuela's oil output, exports and revenue will soon hit a ceiling.
Tellechea rejected that view, saying PDVSA has "a big strength in trading," and is prepared commercially to address the return of Washington's sanctions.



Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Dollar Resumes Upward Trend, Euro Hits Lowest since Nov 2022

US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The dollar hit new multi-month highs against the euro and the pound on Thursday, the first day of 2025 trading, as it built on last year's strong gains on expectations US interest rates will remain high relative to peers.

The euro fell to as low as $1.0314, its lowest since November 2022, down around 0.3% on the day. It is now down nearly 8% since its late September highs above $1.12, one major victim of the dollar's recent surge.

Traders anticipate deep interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank in 2025, with markets pricing in at least four 25 basis point cuts, while not being certain of even two such moves from the US Federal Reserve, Reuters reported.

The dollar was hitting milestones across the board and the pound was last down 0.65% at $1.2443, its lowest since April, with its fall accelerating after it broke through resistance around $1.2475.

"It's more of the same at the start of the new calendar year with the dollar continuing to extend its advances in anticipation of Trump putting in place friendly policies at the start of his term," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

US President-elect Donald Trump's policies are widely expected to not only boost growth but also add to upward price pressure. That will lead to a Fed cautious about cutting rates too much further, in turn underpinning US Treasury yields and boost dollar demand.

A weaker growth outlook outside the US, conflict in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war have also added to demand for the dollar.

The dollar also reversed an early loss on Thursday to climb against the Japanese yen, and was last up 0.17% at 157.26.

It reached a five-month high above 158 yen in late December, potentially putting pressure on the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise interest rates early this year, but possibly not immediately.

"If dollar/yen were to break above 160 ahead of the next BOJ meeting, that could be a catalyst for the BOJ to hike in January rather than wait until March," said Hardman.

"Though for now markets are leaning towards March after the dovish comments from (governor Kazuo) Ueda at his last press conference."

Even those who are more cautious about sustained dollar strength think it could take a long time to play out.

"The dollar may be vulnerable – but only if the US data confound market expectations that the Fed doesn’t cut rates more than once in the first half of this year, and not by more than 50bp in the whole of 2025," said Kit Juckes chief FX strategist at Societe Generale in a note.

"There's a good chance of that happening, but it seems very unlikely that cracks in US growth will appear early in the year – hence my preference for taking any bearish dollar thoughts with me into hibernation until the weather improves."

China's yuan languished at 14-month lows as worries about the health of the world's second-biggest economy, the prospect of US import tariffs from the Trump administration and sliding local yields weighed on investor sentiment.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc, another victim of the recent dollar strength, gave back early gains to last trade flat at 0.90755 per dollar.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars, however, managed to break away from two-year lows touched on Tuesday. The Aussie was 0.36% higher at $0.6215 having dropped 9% in 2024, its weakest yearly performance since 2018.

The kiwi rose 0.47% to $0.5614.