Barclays has raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $100 per barrel, signaling that prices could rise further if the impasse in the Strait of Hormuz continues longer than expected.
The bank cautioned that the longer the disruption lasts, the bigger and more persistent the price shock will be, stressing that $100 a barrel should not be seen as a level at which supply and demand have found a new balance.
According to Barclays, the oil market is running a deficit of around 6.6 million barrels per day that is likely to widen as the supply shock continues.
It added that if disruptions persist through the end of May, prices could reprice towards $110 a barrel.
An Iranian proposal on negotiations with the US sent crude oil futures diving on Friday, but prices remained on track for weekly gains, with Tehran still blocking the Strait of Hormuz and the US Navy blocking exports of Iranian crude.
Brent crude futures for July settled at $108.17, down $2.23 a barrel, or 2.02%. West Texas Intermediate futures finished at $101.94 a barrel, down $3.13, or 2.98%.
Oil prices have been on the rise since the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February, resulting in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of shipments of about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply.
A ceasefire has been in place since April 8.
A senior official of Iran's Revolutionary Guards had threatened on Thursday “long and painful strikes” on US positions if Washington renewed attacks on Iran, pushing oil prices to intraday peaks before retreating.
Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Sarv Shakti, loaded with 46,313 metric tons of liquefied petroleum gas for India, crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, India's shipping ministry said.
The vessels with 20 crew members on board, 18 of them Indian, is expected to arrive at the Indian port of Visakhapatnam on May 13, it said in a statement said.
If the tanker completes the journey, it would become the first known Indian vessel to successfully cross the Strait of Hormuz since the US intensified its crackdown on ships tied to Iran weeks ago, a move that had pushed traffic through the crucial corridor to near-zero.
