European Companies are Less Upbeat About China’s Vast Market as its Economy Slows

President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund speaks during a press conference for European Chamber in Beijing, China, Friday, May 10, 2024. China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to grow their businesses in the world’s second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies has found. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)
President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund speaks during a press conference for European Chamber in Beijing, China, Friday, May 10, 2024. China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to grow their businesses in the world’s second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies has found. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)
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European Companies are Less Upbeat About China’s Vast Market as its Economy Slows

President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund speaks during a press conference for European Chamber in Beijing, China, Friday, May 10, 2024. China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to grow their businesses in the world’s second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies has found. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)
President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund speaks during a press conference for European Chamber in Beijing, China, Friday, May 10, 2024. China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to grow their businesses in the world’s second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies has found. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)

China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to expand their businesses in the world's second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies found, The AP reported.

The slowing economy is now the dominant concern of respondents to the European Chamber of Commerce in China survey, which was released Friday. China still ranks high as a place to invest, but the share of companies considering an expansion of their operations in the country this year fell to 42%, the lowest ever recorded.

“The business outlook is the most pessimistic yet, with companies’ expectations for growth and profitability taking a hit, and concerns about competition intensifying,” the chamber said in its business confidence survey.

The economic worries are layered on top of long-running complaints about regulations and practices that companies say favor their Chinese competitors or are unclear, creating uncertainty for them and their employees. Others including the American Chamber in China have expressed similar concerns.

Those older issues are now compounded by the weaker economy, eroding business confidence, said Jens Eskelund, the president of the European Chamber.

“Companies are beginning to realize that some of these pressures that we have seen in the local market, whether it’s competition, whether it’s low demand, that they are taking on perhaps a more permanent nature,” he told journalists earlier this week. “And that is something that is beginning to impact investment decisions and the way they go about thinking about development of the local market.”

The government is launching programs to boost consumer spending but confidence remains low because of a weak job market. Economic growth came in at a faster-than-expected 5.3% annual pace in the first three months of the year, but much of the GDP growth came from government spending on infrastructure and investment in factories and equipment.

Massive investment in industries such as solar power panels and electric cars has created intense price competition, squeezing profits. More than a third of the survey respondents said they have observed overcapacity in their industry. For 15% of the companies, their China operations finished 2023 in the red. Foreign companies need growth in domestic demand, not manufacturing capacity, Eskelund said.

“What is important to foreign companies is not necessarily sort of a headline GDP number — 5.3%, whatever — but the composition of GDP,” he said.

Close to 40% of companies said they have moved or are considering moving future investments out of China. Southeast Asia and Europe are the biggest beneficiaries, followed by India and North America. Nearly 60% said they are sticking with their investment plans for China, but that was down from last year.

“It’s not that companies are giving up on China, it’s just that we are beginning to see other countries emerging as a serious competitor to China,” Eskelund said Friday.

The survey report said “China’s allure as a top investment destination is fading” and warned that companies will pursue opportunities elsewhere unless there are improvements in the business environment.

The proportion of companies that are optimistic about expanding their China business this year fell to about one-third, down from more than half in 2023. Only 15% were optimistic about profit growth.

More than half expect to cut costs in China this year, including 26% who plan to reduce the size of their staffs — which the report said "will further increase the pressure on an already strained job market.”



Dollar Strong, Stocks Creep Higher as Second Trump Term Dawns

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Strong, Stocks Creep Higher as Second Trump Term Dawns

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar was firm and Asia's stock markets were cautiously positive on Monday as investors waited for an expected flurry of policy announcements in the first hours of Donald Trump's second presidency and eyed a rate hike in Japan at the end of the week.
Trump takes the oath of office at noon Eastern Time (1700 GMT), and promised a "brand new day of American strength" at a rally on Sunday, Reuters said.
He has stoked expectations he will issue a slew of executive orders right away and, in a reminder of his unpredictability, launched a digital token on Friday, which soared to trade above $70 at one point for a total market value north of $15 billion.
Monday is a US holiday, so the first responses to his inauguration in traditional financial markets may be felt in foreign exchange, where traders are focused on Trump's tariff policies, and then in Asian trade on Tuesday.
US equity futures were a fraction weaker in the Asian morning on Monday while the dollar, which has rallied since September on strong US data and as Trump's ultimately successful political campaign gained momentum, held steady.
Japan's Nikkei rose 1%.
Last week the S&P 500 notched the biggest weekly percentage gain since early November and the Nasdaq its largest since early December on some benign inflation data.
The dollar is up around 8% on the euro since September and at $1.0273 is not far from last week's two-year high. But so much is priced in that some analysts feel a more gradual start to US tariff hikes may draw out some sellers.
"A forceful start to Trump's new term could rattle nerves and give the dollar more support," said Corpay currency strategist Peter Dragicevich.
"By contrast, based on what already looks baked in, we think a more measured approach may ease fears and see the dollar lose ground, as it did after Trump took charge in 2017."
Trump has threatened tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports and 60% on Chinese goods, plus a 25% import surcharge on Canadian and Mexican products, duties that trade experts say would upend trade flows, raise costs and draw retaliation.
The Canadian dollar touched a five-year low of C$1.4486 per dollar on Monday. The Mexican peso hit a 2-1/2 year low of 20.94 per dollar on Friday.
Bitcoin dipped in the early part of the Asian day but remained above $100,000. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields closed out Friday at 4.61%, up nearly 100 basis points in four months.
CHINA FOCUS
China is in focus as the target of the harshest potential trade levies. Investors lately cheered better-than-expected Chinese growth data and a Friday phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping that left both upbeat.
"Basically everyone is waiting for these trade negotiations to begin and see what kind of attitude Xi Jinping takes with Trump," Ken Peng, head of Asia investment strategy at Citi Wealth told reporters in Singapore at an outlook briefing.
"That relationship between the two gentlemen has become very important as a leading indicator of policies."
Chinese equity markets rose last week and futures pointed to modest gains for Hong Kong shares at the open.
The yuan is seen likely to slowly adjust to any shifts in trade policy and was marginally firmer at 7.3355 per dollar in offshore trade.
The Australian dollar, sensitive to trade flows and China's economy, has scraped off five-year lows and, according to Commonwealth Bank strategist Joe Capurso, could test resistance at $0.6322 if Trump's policy changes fall short of market expectations. It was last at $0.62.
Japan's yen rallied last week as remarks from Bank of Japan policymakers were taken as hints that a rate cut is likely on Friday.
It was last steady at 156.17 per dollar and rates markets priced about an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.
In commodities gold hovered at $2,694 an ounce and Brent crude futures ticked higher to $81.21 a barrel.