Oil Stabilizes Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

Oil pump jacks are seen at uthe Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Oil pump jacks are seen at uthe Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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Oil Stabilizes Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

Oil pump jacks are seen at uthe Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Oil pump jacks are seen at uthe Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Oil prices held steady on Friday as investors await US inflation data for clues on the demand outlook before turning attention to Sunday's OPEC+ meeting to determine the state of supply into next year.

Brent futures were up 14 cents, or 0.17%, at $82.00 a barrel by 0908 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 4 cents, or 0.05%, at $77.87.

The more liquid August Brent contract was trading at $81.93, up 5 cents from the previous settlement.

Brent futures are on track for a monthly loss of almost 7% after dropping 2% in the previous session on a surprise build in US fuel inventories, Reuters reported.

Higher refinery utilization brought a deeper than expected draw in crude oil stocks in the week to May 24, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed.

However, gasoline inventories rose by 2 million barrels, against expectations of a 400,000 barrel draw and higher demand ahead of the Memorial Day weekend.

In the euro zone, inflation rose by 2.6% in May, Eurostat data showed, beating the 2.5% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

The increase is unlikely to deter the European Central Bank from cutting borrowing costs next week, but it could slow the rate-cutting cycle in the coming months.

The oil market has been under pressure in recent weeks over the prospect of borrowing costs staying higher for longer, which ties down funds and can curb oil demand.

US inflation data is due to be released at 1230 GMT.​

Markets are also awaiting the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, with the producer group working on a complex deal that would allow it to extend some of its deep oil production cuts into 2025, three sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions said on Thursday.

"The probable extension of the voluntary production cuts by OPEC+ should cause oil prices to rise again," Commerzbank analysts said. "Ultimately, this would threaten a significant undersupply on the oil market in the third quarter."



Turkish Cenbank Inflation Forecasts Unchanged, Vows Tight Policy

Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
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Turkish Cenbank Inflation Forecasts Unchanged, Vows Tight Policy

Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya

The Turkish Central Bank has left its mid-point inflation forecasts for end-2024 and end-2025 unchanged at 38% and 14% respectively, Governor Fatih Karahan said on Thursday, vowing to maintain a tight monetary policy stance.
In a briefing on the bank's latest quarterly inflation report, Karahan said that inflation was projected to fall to 9% by the end of 2026.
"We will decisively maintain our tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved," he said. "By maintaining the cautious stance in monetary policy, we envisage that inflation will decline steadily in the rest of the year."
Turkish annual consumer price inflation eased to 61.78% in July, accelerating what is expected to be a sustained slide. Economists see end-year inflation around 42%, Reuters reported.
The bank has raised its policy rate by 4,150 basis points since June last year, but has kept it unchanged at 50% since March to allow the tightening to have an impact.
Karahan said a tight monetary policy stance could be maintained even when the time comes for rate cuts.
"We need to maintain the tight stance for a long time. This does not mean that interest rates will never be cut. A tight stance can be maintained with rate cuts," he said.
The lira was largely flat at 33.5225 to the dollar after his comments, having touched a record low of 33.6700 earlier this week.
EXPECTATIONS CRITICAL
Karahan said the bank's "decisive" monetary policy stance would support the downtrend in monthly underlying inflation amid rebalancing in domestic demand, real appreciation of the lira and the improvement in inflation expectations.
"The convergence of inflation expectations to the forecast range is of critical importance for disinflation," he added.
In its last quarterly report in May, the bank nudged up its year-end inflation forecast to 38% from a previous 36% due to an unexpectedly large rise in the first four months of the year.
The tightening cycle over the last year marked a stark turnaround after years of unorthodox economic policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who in the past urged low rates despite rising prices.
On July 26, Deputy Governor Cevdet Akcay told Reuters that the bank was not even considering a rate-cutting cycle at this time as easing too early could reignite inflation and extend the pain for an economy on the verge of disinflation.
As it seeks to cool the economy, the bank is also rebuilding foreign reserves which had plunged under previous economic programs that had sought to stabilize the lira.