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Bulgaria, Romania Fail Economic Tests to Join Euro

Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Reuters
Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Reuters
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Bulgaria, Romania Fail Economic Tests to Join Euro

Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Reuters
Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Reuters

The eastward expansion of Europe’s single currency has suffered a setback after Bulgaria and Romania failed to meet the economic criteria needed to adopt the euro.
The decision announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) and European Commission on Wednesday means Bulgaria’s ambition of joining the Eurozone at the start of next year will be frustrated, according to The Financial Times.
Their review also confirmed Romania’s hopes of euro membership remain as distant as ever, the newspaper said.
The ECB and commission said the two countries on the Black Sea coast — which are among the poorest EU members — had inflation that was too high compared with the rest of the bloc and expressed doubts about whether their institutions were strong enough to tackle corruption and money laundering.
Both countries are seeking to follow in the footsteps of Croatia, which became the 20th country to adopt the euro at the start of 2023.
Bulgaria is the closest country to Eurozone membership, having pegged its lev currency to the euro for years, allowed its biggest banks to be supervised by the ECB and kept relatively low debt and budget deficit levels.
If it had met the necessary conditions, Bulgaria could have joined the euro at the start of 2025, the Financial Times wrote.
In the commission’s assessment of six non-euro EU countries’ readiness to join the single currency area, Bulgaria fulfilled every criteria except bringing inflation down to EU levels.
The newspaper quoted the ECB as saying that inflation in Bulgaria averaged 5.1% in the year to May, down from 5.9% a year earlier but still well above the 3.3% maximum threshold calculated in relation to other EU members.
While the assessment’s outcome was as expected, Bulgaria’s previous government had hoped the EU executive would exercise leniency given that Sofia is expected to meet the price stability criterion later this year.
Instead, the commission has agreed to reassess the country’s suitability to join the euro at Bulgaria’s request, rather than waiting for the next regular review in two years, according to EU and Bulgarian officials.
Bulgarians are split on joining the euro, with recent polls showing 49% are in favor and a similar percentage are against.
The ECB also said Sofia was still “working towards” implementing a number of commitments, including “strengthening its anti-money laundering framework”, and raised concerns about a constitutional amendment allowing the president to appoint the governor or deputy governor of Bulgaria’s central bank as interim prime minister.
Institutional quality and governance were improving but still “relatively weak” in Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, the ECB said.
It cited “weaknesses in the business environment, an inefficient public administration, tax evasion, corruption, a lack of social inclusion, a lack of transparency, a lack of judicial independence and/or poor access to online services”.
Former Bulgarian premier Nikolai Denkov recently told the Financial Times that corruption was also a way for Russia to peddle influence in Bulgaria, a big point of concern for western allies.
The country has been beset by persistent political turmoil, while corruption and organized crime have kept it out of closer integration with other EU peers, allowing only a partial entry into the border-free Schengen zone earlier this year.
Sofia has had six elections in just over three years since strongman former leader Boyko Borisov was ousted in 2021 after anti-corruption protests.
Another election is considered likely this year after a vote in June failed to deliver a stable government.
Bulgaria remains the EU’s poorest member, with gross domestic product per capita a third below the bloc’s average.
Inflation in Romania was well above the required level after price growth averaged 7.6% in the past year. It also fell short on the ECB’s fiscal assessment, having breached the EU’s debt rules since 2020 and run a 6.6% budget deficit last year — well above the EU’s 3 per cent limit — and little prospect of it falling below Brussels’ target this year.
Overall, the ECB said there had been “limited progress” by non-Eurozone members in converging towards the single currency bloc owing to “challenging economic conditions” caused by the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The other four countries assessed — Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Sweden — also had inflation above the level required to join the euro and all except Sweden breached the EU fiscal rules, according to The Financial Times.
The quartet are not seeking euro membership, however. Romania last year set a target to join the euro by 2029, but President Klaus Iohannis has questioned setting any firm date for the country.

 

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Business

Oil Prices Surge While Asian Share Prices Rise Moderately

FILE - Workers walk in an area at a degassing station in Zubair oil field, whose operations have being reduced due to the Mideast war triggered by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, near Basra, Iraq, March 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Leo Correa, File)
FILE - Workers walk in an area at a degassing station in Zubair oil field, whose operations have being reduced due to the Mideast war triggered by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, near Basra, Iraq, March 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Leo Correa, File)
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Oil Prices Surge While Asian Share Prices Rise Moderately

FILE - Workers walk in an area at a degassing station in Zubair oil field, whose operations have being reduced due to the Mideast war triggered by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, near Basra, Iraq, March 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Leo Correa, File)
FILE - Workers walk in an area at a degassing station in Zubair oil field, whose operations have being reduced due to the Mideast war triggered by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, near Basra, Iraq, March 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Leo Correa, File)

Oil prices continued to surge on worries of a prolonged Iran war but the Asian markets that were open Friday rose moderately in cautious trading, while others were closed for the Good Friday holidays.

Benchmark US crude rose 11.4% to $111.54 a barrel. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, jumped 7.8% to $109.03 per barrel, The Associated Press said.

“A more extended conflict raises the threat to physical infrastructure, extends disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, and will entail a longer post-war recovery period, with price impacts spilling over later into the year,” according to a report from BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.

The US only relies on the Arabian Gulf for a fraction of the oil it imports, but oil is a commodity and prices are set in a global market.

The situation is very different in Asia. Japan, for example, relies on access to the Strait of Hormuz for much of the nation’s oil import needs and would need to rely on alternative routes. But some analysts say Japan and other nations are counting on an agreement with Iran to allow transports.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 gained 0.9% in Friday morning trading to 52,938.62. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.1% to 5,344.41. The Shanghai Composite sank 0.5% to 3,899.57. Trading was closed in Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India.

Wall Street, where trading is closed Friday, finished its first winning week since the start of the Iran war, although trading started out with a decline driven by a surge in oil prices.

That came after US President Donald Trump late Wednesday vowed the US will continue to attack Iran and failed to offer a clear timetable for ending the conflict in the Middle East.

The S&P 500 rose 7.37 points, or 0.1%, to 6,582.69. Several days of solid gains this week helped the benchmark index notch a 3.4% gain for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 61.07 points, or 0.1%, to 46,504.67. The Nasdaq composite rose 38.23 points, or 0.2%, to 21,879.18. Both indexes also notched weekly gains.

Treasury yields remained relatively steady in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to to 4.30% from 4.32%.

In currency trading, the US dollar edged up to 159.66 Japanese yen from 159.53 yen. The euro cost $1.1535, inching down from $1.1537.

Business

Saudi Arabia Boosts Firms’ Readiness for Supply Chain Challenges

Container ship at King Abdullah Port (SPA)
Container ship at King Abdullah Port (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia Boosts Firms’ Readiness for Supply Chain Challenges

Container ship at King Abdullah Port (SPA)
Container ship at King Abdullah Port (SPA)

Amid mounting geopolitical tensions threatening global supply chains, particularly disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is stepping up efforts to shield its economy by strengthening private sector readiness to withstand external shocks.

Asharq Al-Awsat has learned that the Federation of Saudi Chambers is moving to boost companies’ preparedness, unify procedures, and keep business flowing smoothly amid rising logistical risks.

The push underscores authorities’ focus on safeguarding the domestic market by helping businesses adapt quickly and strengthen operational resilience, supporting economic stability and sustained growth.

Future decisions

As part of efforts to bolster supply chain resilience, the Federation of Saudi Chambers is mapping challenges facing companies and national institutions, aiming to present the sector’s voice directly, build a clear picture of on-the-ground obstacles, and help shape future decisions.

It is tracking operational and logistical hurdles and turning them into inputs for relevant authorities to improve regulations and support market-based decision-making.

Improving the regulatory environment

The federation has asked companies to pinpoint challenges across ports, airports, logistics hubs, and warehouses, as well as those tied to regulators.

It urged firms to specify issues such as clearance or transit delays, procedural disruptions, added costs, lack of information, conflicting instructions, and regulatory requirements, along with their impact, whether financial or operational, including delivery delays, lost clients, suspended contracts, damaged cargo, and supply chain breakdowns.

The findings are expected to feed into regulatory improvements and more informed policymaking.

Alternative routes

Saudi Arabia has rolled out proactive logistics measures to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, including new corridors linking Gulf ports through alternative land and sea routes, Red Sea options, and additional shipping services to expand port capacity.

The Transport General Authority said licensed operators will be allowed to carry goods for third parties until Sept. 25, aiming to boost fleet efficiency and flexibility.

The authority said the step will help companies make better use of capacity, support supply chain continuity, and improve cargo movement within the kingdom and to neighboring countries.

On Thursday, it also approved regulatory updates extending deadlines for land freight firms to adjust their status, aiming to raise efficiency and compliance.

The extension covers heavy and light transport activities until Aug. 27, 2026, giving companies more time to meet regulatory requirements.

It also includes cases involving the reclassification of vehicle registration from private to public use in heavy freight, in a move to better regulate the sector and improve fleet utilization.

Business

War Hits Lebanon Dollar Lifeline, Remittances Fall Sharply

Lebanon’s central bank (National News Agency)
Lebanon’s central bank (National News Agency)
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War Hits Lebanon Dollar Lifeline, Remittances Fall Sharply

Lebanon’s central bank (National News Agency)
Lebanon’s central bank (National News Agency)

A Lebanese mother described the sharp decline in one of her last sources of income, once a pillar of her financial stability, as remittances from her son abroad dwindled in the wake of the war.

“My son used to send me $600 a month. I lived on it, covered my medication and basic needs. After the war, the transfer does not exceed $200,” she told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Her account reflects a broader trend among Lebanese households, in which remittances from relatives abroad have dropped by 10% to 15% during the war. The conflict has left its mark on multiple countries, including Lebanon, driving inflation and creating obstacles to money transfers.

The financial situation was also discussed in a meeting between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and central bank governor Karim Saeed, where current monetary and financial conditions, exchange rate stability, and precautionary measures to maintain liquidity were reviewed.

Rapid contraction and rising pressure

The issue has reached the government. Economy Minister Amer Bisat presented updated wartime estimates to the cabinet on Thursday, highlighting economic contraction and declining incomes driven by large-scale displacement, along with a notable rise in unemployment.

He cited sectoral and field studies showing deteriorating indicators, estimating the contraction at 7%-10%, coupled with slower inflows of funds into the country.

Bisat said the situation remains “relatively under control,” noting that the ministry continues to pursue cases of monopoly and fraud through dozens of reports, judicial referrals, and the seizure of non-compliant goods.

He warned that a prolonged war would heighten economic risks, describing inflation as a real challenge, while the balance of payments remains within acceptable limits.

Impact on daily life

The Lebanese mother told Asharq Al-Awsat: “I used to organize my life around the $600 my son sent me every month. I would pay for medication first, then cover household needs. Now I have to ration spending. I can no longer pay the electricity bill regularly.”

She added: “I buy smaller quantities of everything and postpone whatever I can. Sometimes I ask the pharmacy for medicine on credit. I never imagined I would reach this point.”

In the Bekaa Valley, Abu Mohammad described a similar experience: “My son used to send $400 a month, now it barely reaches $200.”

“I relied on that amount to cover rent and basic expenses. Now everything has changed. We live day to day on installments. We buy only the bare minimum and delay everything, rent, bills, even some essentials,” he said.

“Sometimes we sit together as a family to decide what we can pay this month and what to postpone. This did not exist before. Now it is part of our daily life.”

A shrinking economic backbone

Economist Walid Abou Suleiman said remittances have formed the “backbone of Lebanon’s economy since the 2019 crisis,” noting that the country relies heavily on them to secure foreign currency, as Lebanon imports about 85% of its consumer needs.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that annual remittances are estimated at around $6 billion, including roughly $3 billion from Gulf countries, but have begun to decline, with at least a 5% drop recorded in the first month of the crisis.

“The impact of crises does not appear immediately; it builds gradually in the following months, meaning the decline is likely to worsen,” he said.

Hundreds of millions in losses

Abou Suleiman expects remittances to fall by 10% to 15%, equivalent to annual losses of between $450 million and $500 million, or about $40 million per month.

This decline is compounded by job losses among Lebanese expatriates in the Gulf, increasing domestic pressure as some return to Lebanon.

He added that the war has also affected other sources of foreign currency, particularly tourism. “Seasons that used to inject dollars into the market, such as Easter, have been absent this year,” he said, adding that rising global oil prices are worsening the crisis, as Lebanon is among the countries most affected by energy costs.

“The treasury is bearing additional burdens estimated at around 18% due to these increases,” he said.

Abou Suleiman warned that global inflation directly impacts Lebanon. “We do not only import goods, but we also import inflation with them, given the absence of local production and self-sufficiency,” he said, cautioning that the economic outlook will deteriorate further if the war continues.

Ongoing decline and uncertain outlook

Economist Professor Jassem Ajaka said remittances to Lebanon have recorded a notable decline, estimating a drop of around 5% last week, possibly rising to between 5% and 10% as conditions continue to evolve, with no precise figure due to constantly changing data.

He said the decline is logical, as Lebanese workers in the Gulf and Europe have also been affected by slowing economic conditions there.

“The crisis is no longer confined to one country or region; it is global, though its impact varies from place to place,” he said.

Ajaka stressed that remittances remain a key pillar, alongside tourism, which is largely driven by expatriates. “The tourism sector is almost entirely halted. The season can be considered lost, and even the upcoming summer season is not guaranteed. Recovery will not be quick, even if the war ends,” he said.

Tourism revenues were estimated at between $4 billion and $4.5 billion annually, making them a major source of foreign currency.

Exports are also expected to decline by around 10% due to damage to the agricultural sector in the south and Bekaa, as well as higher industrial production costs driven by rising oil prices.

Dollar inflows shrink, risks expand

Ajaka said remittances now represent the last line of resilience for many Lebanese families, but this pillar is weakening with the current decline.

He warned that the most serious consequence is a shortage of dollars in the market, raising questions about Lebanon’s ability to finance imports of fuel, food, and medicine.

A temporary solution could involve the central bank financing imports from its foreign currency reserves, he said, but this would amount to crisis management, with repercussions worsening the longer it continues.

He added that pressures are not limited to economic factors, but also include measures that restrict dollar inflows, further reducing liquidity in the market.