Saudi Budget: Non-Oil Revenues Highest Since End of 2020

A general view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Reuters)
A general view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Reuters)
TT

Saudi Budget: Non-Oil Revenues Highest Since End of 2020

A general view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Reuters)
A general view of the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Reuters)

Non-oil revenues in Saudi Arabia grew by 4 percent year-on-year during the second quarter of 2024, to reach SAR 140.6 billion ($73.3 billion), the highest level since the end of 2020.

Capital spending maintained its growth, as it rose by 49 percent year-on-year during the same period, reaching SAR 65 billion ($17.3 billion).

According to a statement by the Ministry of Finance on the budget performance for the second quarter of 2024, the total revenues increased by 12 percent, recording SAR 353 billion, while total expenditures amounted to SAR 369 billion and the value of the deficit SAR 15.3 billion.

The deficit for the first half of 2024 stands at 35% of the projected deficit for the year. The deficit amounted to SAR 15. 3 billion in the second quarter of 2024.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expected the Saudi budget to achieve a surplus in 2024, supported by the continued growth of the non-oil private sector. However, the Finance Ministry statement projected an annual deficit of 1.9 percent of GDP, and that the deficit to continue in the 2025 and 2026 budgets.

The volume of capital spending highlights the momentum gained by projects in the Kingdom, as part of Vision 2030, which contributed to shaping Saudi Arabia’s economic plans. Non-oil revenues reflect the government’s success in the process of diversifying the economy.

According to Ministry of Finance, total Saudi budget revenues increased by 12 percent in the second quarter of 2024, recording SAR 353 billion.

Non-oil revenues grew by 4 percent, reaching their highest levels since 2020, while oil revenues recorded a growth of 18 percent to SAR 213 billion ($56.8 billion) during the same period.

Total expenditures in Saudi Arabia during the second quarter of this year increased by 15 percent year-on-year to SAR 368.9 billion ($98.3 billion), compared to SAR 320 billion in the same period of 2023.

Expenditures grew by 12 percent year-on-year during the first half of 2024. The municipal services sector topped the volume of spending with 116 percent.

Spending on education during the first half of this year represented 52 percent of the total approved budget, amounting to SAR 101.8 billion, a decline of 1 percent compared to the same period of 2023.

For the seventh consecutive quarter, the general budget recorded a deficit of SAR 15.34 billion ($4 billion) during the second quarter of 2024. Public debt also increased at the end of the first quarter by 9 percent since the beginning of the year, reaching SAR 1.15 trillion. The Kingdom had borrowed SAR 104 billion from internal parties during the first half of 2024, and SAR 67.8 billion from external lenders.

The data also highlighted that the Kingdom’s GDP contracted by 0.4 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, attributed to an 8.5 percent decline in oil activities.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, former member of the Shura Council, Dr. Fahd bin Jomaa said the government has put a plan within Vision 2030 to boost non-oil activities and reduce reliance on oil.

He noted that achieving a 4 percent growth in the non-oil sector was an indication that the country is moving in the right direction and building a real and diversified economy.



US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
TT

US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)

China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2025 and cool further to 4.2% in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, with policymakers poised to roll out fresh stimulus measures to soften the blow from impending US tariff hikes.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.9% in 2024 - largely meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%, helped by stimulus measures and strong exports, according to the median forecasts of 64 economists polled by Reuters.

But the world's second-largest economy faces heightened trade tensions with the United States as President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week.

“Potential US tariff hikes are the biggest headwind for China's growth this year, and could affect exports, corporate capex and household consumption,” analysts at UBS said in a note.

“We (also) foresee property activity continuing to fall in 2025, though with a smaller drag on growth.”

Growth likely improved to 5.0% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, quickening from the third-quarter's 4.6% pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in, the poll showed.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.6% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.9% in July-September, the poll showed.

The government is due to release fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data, along with December activity data, on Friday.

China's economy has struggled for traction since a post-pandemic rebound quickly fizzled out, with a protracted property crisis, weak demand and high local government debt levels weighing heavily on activity, souring both business and consumer confidence.

Policymakers have unveiled a blitz of stimulus measures since September, including cuts in interest rates and banks' reserve requirements ratios (RRR) and a 10 trillion yuan ($1.36 trillion) municipal debt package.

They have also expanded a trade-in scheme for consumer goods such as appliances and autos, helping to revive retail sales.

Analysts expect more stimulus to be rolled out this year, but say the scope and size of China's moves may depend on how quickly and aggressively Trump implements tariffs or other punitive measures.

More stimulus on the cards

At an agenda-setting meeting in December, Chinese leaders pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to support economic growth in 2025.

Leaders have agreed to maintain an annual growth target of around 5% for this year, backed by a record high budget deficit ratio of 4% and 3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, Reuters has reported, citing sources.

The government is expected to unveil growth targets and stimulus plans during the annual parliament meeting in March.

Faced with mounting economic risks and deflationary pressures, top leaders in December ditched their 14-year-old “prudent” monetary policy stance for a “moderately loose” posture.

China's central bank is expected to deploy its most aggressive monetary tactics in a decade this year as it tries to revive the economy, but in doing so it risks quickly exhausting its firepower. It has already had to repeatedly shore up its defense of the yuan currency as downward pressure pushes it to 16-month lows.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the central bank to cut the seven-day reverse repo rate, its key policy rate, by 10 basis points in the first quarter, leading to a same cut in the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) - the benchmark lending rate.

The PBOC may also cut the weighted average reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by at least 25 basis points in the first quarter, the poll showed, after two cuts in 2024.

Consumer inflation will likely pick up to 0.8% in 2025 from 0.2% in 2024, and rise further to 1.4% in 2026, the poll showed.