Oil Prices Tick Up on Sharp Fall in US Crude Inventories

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
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Oil Prices Tick Up on Sharp Fall in US Crude Inventories

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant

Oil prices edged higher on Thursday for the third straight session after government data showed a steep draw in US crude stockpiles, rebounding from multi-month lows touched this week.
Brent crude futures rose 23 cents, or 0.3%, at $78.56 a barrel by 0017 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 29 cents, or 0.4%, to $75.52.
Brent tumbled to its weakest since early January on Monday, and WTI dipped to its lowest since February, hurt by worry over a US recession and a selloff in global stocks.
US crude inventories fell for a sixth week in a row last week, dropping by 3.7 million barrels to 429.3 million barrels last week, government data showed, against analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a 700,000-barrel draw.
Investors also continued to debate the state of supply as US Energy Information Administration data showed production jumped by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 13.4 million bpd in the week ended Aug. 2.
However, the potential for Middle East supply disruptions worried markets after the killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah last week raised the possibility of retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel.
While no supply has been impacted so far, attacks on ships in the Red Sea have forced tankers to take longer routes meaning more oil stays on the water for longer.
Meanwhile, Libya's National Oil Corporation has declared force majeure in its Sharara oilfield from Tuesday, a statement said, adding that the company had gradually reduced the field's production due to protests.



Turkish Cenbank Inflation Forecasts Unchanged, Vows Tight Policy

Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
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Turkish Cenbank Inflation Forecasts Unchanged, Vows Tight Policy

Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya

The Turkish Central Bank has left its mid-point inflation forecasts for end-2024 and end-2025 unchanged at 38% and 14% respectively, Governor Fatih Karahan said on Thursday, vowing to maintain a tight monetary policy stance.
In a briefing on the bank's latest quarterly inflation report, Karahan said that inflation was projected to fall to 9% by the end of 2026.
"We will decisively maintain our tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved," he said. "By maintaining the cautious stance in monetary policy, we envisage that inflation will decline steadily in the rest of the year."
Turkish annual consumer price inflation eased to 61.78% in July, accelerating what is expected to be a sustained slide. Economists see end-year inflation around 42%, Reuters reported.
The bank has raised its policy rate by 4,150 basis points since June last year, but has kept it unchanged at 50% since March to allow the tightening to have an impact.
Karahan said a tight monetary policy stance could be maintained even when the time comes for rate cuts.
"We need to maintain the tight stance for a long time. This does not mean that interest rates will never be cut. A tight stance can be maintained with rate cuts," he said.
The lira was largely flat at 33.5225 to the dollar after his comments, having touched a record low of 33.6700 earlier this week.
EXPECTATIONS CRITICAL
Karahan said the bank's "decisive" monetary policy stance would support the downtrend in monthly underlying inflation amid rebalancing in domestic demand, real appreciation of the lira and the improvement in inflation expectations.
"The convergence of inflation expectations to the forecast range is of critical importance for disinflation," he added.
In its last quarterly report in May, the bank nudged up its year-end inflation forecast to 38% from a previous 36% due to an unexpectedly large rise in the first four months of the year.
The tightening cycle over the last year marked a stark turnaround after years of unorthodox economic policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who in the past urged low rates despite rising prices.
On July 26, Deputy Governor Cevdet Akcay told Reuters that the bank was not even considering a rate-cutting cycle at this time as easing too early could reignite inflation and extend the pain for an economy on the verge of disinflation.
As it seeks to cool the economy, the bank is also rebuilding foreign reserves which had plunged under previous economic programs that had sought to stabilize the lira.