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Egypt Aims to Reduce Inflation to Less than 10% by End of 2025

A general view shows Egypt's Nile river and the the University bridge in the capital Cairo on November 11, 2022. (AFP)
A general view shows Egypt's Nile river and the the University bridge in the capital Cairo on November 11, 2022. (AFP)
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Egypt Aims to Reduce Inflation to Less than 10% by End of 2025

A general view shows Egypt's Nile river and the the University bridge in the capital Cairo on November 11, 2022. (AFP)
A general view shows Egypt's Nile river and the the University bridge in the capital Cairo on November 11, 2022. (AFP)

Egypt aims to reduce inflation to less than 10% by the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said on Thursday.

This came as the country's statistics agency CAPMAS showed on Thursday that Egypt's annual urban consumer price inflation slid to 25.7% in July from 27.5% in June.

Month-on-month, prices fell by 0.4% in July, down from 1.6% in June. Food prices declined by 0.3% in July, though they were still 28.5% higher than a year ago.

A poll of 18 analysts had expected inflation to have slowed to a median of 26.6% in July, extending a deceleration that began in September, when inflation reached a peak of 38.0%.

Egypt has tightened its monetary policy under an $8 billion International Monetary Fund financial support package it signed in March, although that programme has also required it to increase many domestic prices and let its currency plunge.

The central bank hiked interest rates by 600 basis points (bps) on March 6, bringing total increases in 2024 to 800 bps.

The government raised the price of some subsidised products to battle a budget deficit that hit 505 billion Egyptian pounds ($10.27 billion) in a 3.016 trillion pound budget in the year that ended on June 30.

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Turkish Cenbank Inflation Forecasts Unchanged, Vows Tight Policy

Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
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Turkish Cenbank Inflation Forecasts Unchanged, Vows Tight Policy

Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya

The Turkish Central Bank has left its mid-point inflation forecasts for end-2024 and end-2025 unchanged at 38% and 14% respectively, Governor Fatih Karahan said on Thursday, vowing to maintain a tight monetary policy stance.
In a briefing on the bank's latest quarterly inflation report, Karahan said that inflation was projected to fall to 9% by the end of 2026.
"We will decisively maintain our tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved," he said. "By maintaining the cautious stance in monetary policy, we envisage that inflation will decline steadily in the rest of the year."
Turkish annual consumer price inflation eased to 61.78% in July, accelerating what is expected to be a sustained slide. Economists see end-year inflation around 42%, Reuters reported.
The bank has raised its policy rate by 4,150 basis points since June last year, but has kept it unchanged at 50% since March to allow the tightening to have an impact.
Karahan said a tight monetary policy stance could be maintained even when the time comes for rate cuts.
"We need to maintain the tight stance for a long time. This does not mean that interest rates will never be cut. A tight stance can be maintained with rate cuts," he said.
The lira was largely flat at 33.5225 to the dollar after his comments, having touched a record low of 33.6700 earlier this week.
EXPECTATIONS CRITICAL
Karahan said the bank's "decisive" monetary policy stance would support the downtrend in monthly underlying inflation amid rebalancing in domestic demand, real appreciation of the lira and the improvement in inflation expectations.
"The convergence of inflation expectations to the forecast range is of critical importance for disinflation," he added.
In its last quarterly report in May, the bank nudged up its year-end inflation forecast to 38% from a previous 36% due to an unexpectedly large rise in the first four months of the year.
The tightening cycle over the last year marked a stark turnaround after years of unorthodox economic policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who in the past urged low rates despite rising prices.
On July 26, Deputy Governor Cevdet Akcay told Reuters that the bank was not even considering a rate-cutting cycle at this time as easing too early could reignite inflation and extend the pain for an economy on the verge of disinflation.
As it seeks to cool the economy, the bank is also rebuilding foreign reserves which had plunged under previous economic programs that had sought to stabilize the lira.