Gold Climbs as Traders Position for Powell's Speech

A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
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Gold Climbs as Traders Position for Powell's Speech

A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)

Gold prices gained on Friday as investors positioned themselves for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech that could shed more light on a potential US September interest rate cut.

Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,500.83 per ounce by 1219 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,531.60 on Tuesday. US gold futures gained 0.8% to $2,536.50.

Bullion fell more than 1% in the previous session, setting it on course for a 0.3% weekly decline, pressured by a rebound in the dollar and higher Treasury yields, Reuters reported.

"I think it's position-taking ahead of the expected rate cut, which I think is now looking like almost a certainty in September," said independent analyst Ross Norman.

Traders are expecting a 74% chance of a 25 basis points cut in September, while 26% expect a deeper 50 bps cut. Gold tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment as it yields no interest by itself.

"If Powell now hints at stronger interest rate cuts as a result, we could see new record highs for gold," Commerzbank said in a note.

"Given that the market has already priced in Fed rate cuts of around 100 basis points by the end of the year, the bar for a dovish surprise is likely to be set quite high."

Powell is expected to deliver speech at the annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at 1400 GMT.

Meanwhile, India's silver imports are on course to nearly double this year due to rising demand from solar panel and electronics makers and as investors bet the metal will give better returns than gold, leading importers said on Friday.

Spot silver rose nearly 1.5% to $29.41 per ounce and was up 1.3% for the week.

Platinum gained 0.3% to $946.35 and palladium steadied at $933.71. Both metals were on track for a weekly decline.



Oil Up 2% but Set to End the Week Lower on Demand Concerns

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
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Oil Up 2% but Set to End the Week Lower on Demand Concerns

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant

Oil prices rose 2% on Friday on a softer dollar but were still set to end the week lower as weaker US employment data raised concerns over the health of the world's largest oil consumer, and renewed ceasefire talks in Gaza eased worries about supply.

Brent crude futures rose $1.38, or 1.8%, to $78.60 a barrel at 1220 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.46, or 2%, to $74.47. Brent futures have fallen about 1.4% so far this week, while WTI lost nearly 3%.

Both benchmarks hit their lowest since early January this week, after the US government sharply lowered its estimate of jobs added by employers this year through March, Reuters reported.

That sparked concern about a potential recession in the US hurting demand in the top oil consuming nation, but some analysts say that was an overreaction to the jobs revision.

The market will be closely monitoring a keynote speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell scheduled for 1400 GMT on Friday, with the market widely anticipating a rate cut from next month.

"Alluding to a quarter point cut in September is something already priced in and will receive a lukewarm reaction," PVM Oil analyst John Evans said.

"But a double-decker half point percentage cut goes against how the Fed wishes to manage a controlled move away from tightening," he added.

The US dollar index softened to about 101.45 ahead of the speech, and remained close to the 2024 low of 100.92 it hit on Wednesday, and is headed for a fifth straight week of losses. A cheaper greenback typically lifts demand for dollar-denominated oil from investors holding other currencies.

Morgan Stanley said in a note on Friday that a drawdown in oil inventories has provided oil prices with some support.

"For now, the balance in the oil market is tight, with inventories drawing approximately 1.2 million barrels per day in the last four weeks, which we expect will continue in the balance of [the third quarter]," the bank said.

Recent data from China, the top oil importer, has pointed to a struggling economy and slowing oil demand from refiners.
A renewed push for a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has also helped ease supply worries and weighed on oil prices.

US and Israeli delegations started a new round of meetings in Cairo on Thursday to resolve differences over a truce proposal.