The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued on Wednesday a favorable report on Saudi Arabia following the conclusion of the Article IV consultations with the Kingdom. The IMF report confirmed that Saudi Arabia's financial and regulatory reform agenda contributed to accelerating the Saudi economy's growth, containing inflation, and reducing the unemployment rate to its lowest levels ever.
The IMF praised the ongoing economic transformation and efforts to diversify the economy under the Saudi Vision 2030.
The IMF Article IV Consultation report commended the macroeconomic policies and transformational changes implemented by the Kingdom, which contributed to boosting the growth of non-oil activities.
The report noted that Saudi reforms led to rising employment, which now exceeds pre-Covid figures, and that the rate of women's participation in the labor market rose to more than 35%, exceeding the Saudi Vision 2030 target of 30%.
The IMF welcomed Saudi Arabia's measures of conducting long-term financing planning that supports the implementation of the initiatives, programs, and projects of Vision 2030 while mitigating the risks of overheating. It stressed that the Kingdom's fiscal space is strong and that sovereign debt risks are low, adding that the abundance of financial reserves in Saudi Arabia has limited the impact of global and regional challenges.
The IMF report noted that the ongoing reforms in the Kingdom - which include ensuring the effective implementation of regulations, streamlining fees, boosting human capital, increasing the participation of Saudi women in the labor market, facilitating access to land and financing, and improving governance - have contributed to enhancing private sector growth and attracting more foreign direct investment, in addition to the significant progress in the field of digital transformation and artificial intelligence that support these efforts.
The IMF Executive Directors commended Saudi Arabia's leadership role in multilateral fora, including its chairmanship of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) in the IMF, which contributed to efforts to address global challenges.
Moreover, the report noted increased activity in the services sector - including transportation, trade, tourism, and finance - as consumption growth reached 5.7%.
The IMF said foreign investment license applications reached record levels in 2023, as they approximately doubled from 2022, including the 330 companies applying for licenses to establish their regional headquarters in the Kingdom.
The report reviewed the banking sector developments in the Kingdom, stressing its strong levels of solvency and liquidity and its flexibility to shocks. The banking sector is on a strong footing and also noted the efficiency of banking mediation according to indicators of profitability, infrastructure, and competitiveness.
The report highlighted the rise in the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) index of 14.2% in 2023, surpassing the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index of 7%. It noted the progress in the technical environment enabling investment and the licensing of three digital banks. The IMF stressed their contribution to bolstering financial inclusion and competitiveness as these banks are characterized by flexibility and innovation.
Furthermore, it noted the Kingdom's containment of risks resulting from the rapid growth of real estate lending through diverse government support, the strength of banks, full recourse mortgages, and other supportive measures. It highlighted improvements in automating the national assessment matrix for money laundering and terrorist financing risks and boosting the accuracy of data analysis related to risks received from reporting entities, including fintech companies.
The report said the increase in non-oil revenues reflects the effectiveness of existing reforms, which directly contributed to enhancing compliance. It also praised the alignment of customs procedures with international best practices.
The IMF expected the non-oil sector, which includes government activities, to grow by 3.5% in 2024, supported by strong domestic demand. The inflation rate in the Kingdom is probable to remain stable at around 2% over the medium term, supported by the Saudi riyals' peg to the US dollar and local policies consistent with Vision 2030.
The IMF confirmed that the Kingdom has one of the lowest carbon intensity levels among all major producers due to ongoing environmental reforms and its efforts to achieve net zero by 2060. The report noted the Kingdom's success in securing a 30-year purchase agreement for the green hydrogen project in NEOM to achieve its efforts to utilize renewable energy sources.
In order to sequester approximately 44 million tons annually by 2035, the IMF said the Saudi government intends to build one of the world's largest carbon capture and storage plants, which will be operational by 2027, with a capacity of 9 million tons of carbon dioxide annually. It underscored the Kingdom's current efforts to sequester 1.3 million tons of carbon annually through the SABIC Plant and Uthmaniyah Gas Plant Department.
