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Bank of England Widely Expected to Hold Interest Rates

File photo: The risk of a resurgence in inflation and the July 4 election are seen as keeping the Bank of England from starting to cut rates at its Thursday meeting ( AFP)
File photo: The risk of a resurgence in inflation and the July 4 election are seen as keeping the Bank of England from starting to cut rates at its Thursday meeting ( AFP)
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Bank of England Widely Expected to Hold Interest Rates

File photo: The risk of a resurgence in inflation and the July 4 election are seen as keeping the Bank of England from starting to cut rates at its Thursday meeting ( AFP)
File photo: The risk of a resurgence in inflation and the July 4 election are seen as keeping the Bank of England from starting to cut rates at its Thursday meeting ( AFP)

The Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, a day after official figures showed inflation in the UK holding steady at an annual rate of 2.2% in August, with higher airfares offset by lower fuel costs and restaurant and hotel bills.
The latest reading from the Office of National Statistics on Wednesday was in line with market predictions and means that inflation remains just above the British central bank’s goal of 2% for the second month running, having fallen in June to the target for the first time in nearly three years.
Last month, the central bank reduced its main interest rate by a quarter-point to 5%, the first cut since the onset of the pandemic. It was a close call though with four of the nine members voting for no change.
The economic landscape indicates that the BOE is likely to delay a second rate cut until November.
Inflation, wage growth, and labor market conditions are the three key indicators the bank monitors when adjusting monetary policy.
On Wednesday, data showed that British inflation held steady in August but sped up in the services sector which is closely watched by the Bank of England, adding to bets that the central bank will keep interest rates on hold on Thursday.
Consumer price inflation of 2.2% last month was unchanged from July, the Office for National Statistics said, matching the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists although it was below the BoE's latest projection of 2.4%.
Also, British house prices rose by an annual 2.2% in July, the fifth monthly rise in a row but the pace of increase cooled and was below a revised 2.7% increase in the 12 months to June, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.
The ONS said house prices in London fell 0.4%.
Other indicators of Britain's property sector have shown a recovery as demand improved after a cut in borrowing costs.

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US Economy Grew at Solid 3% Rate Last Quarter, Government Says in Final Estimate

FILE - The New York Stock Exchange, at rear, is shown on Sept. 24, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan, File)
FILE - The New York Stock Exchange, at rear, is shown on Sept. 24, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan, File)
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US Economy Grew at Solid 3% Rate Last Quarter, Government Says in Final Estimate

FILE - The New York Stock Exchange, at rear, is shown on Sept. 24, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan, File)
FILE - The New York Stock Exchange, at rear, is shown on Sept. 24, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan, File)

The American economy expanded at a healthy 3% annual pace from April through June, boosted by strong consumer spending and business investment, the government said Thursday, leaving its previous estimate unchanged.
The Commerce Department reported that the nation's gross domestic product — the nation's total output of goods and services — picked up sharply in the second quarter from the tepid 1.6% annual rate in the first three months of the year, The Associated Press reported.
Consumer spending, the primary driver of the economy, grew last quarter at a 2.8% pace, down slightly from the 2.9% rate the government had previously estimated. Business investment was also solid: It increased at a vigorous 8.3% annual pace last quarter, led by a 9.8% rise in investment in equipment.
The final GDP estimate for the April-June quarter included figures showing that inflation continues to ease, to just above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The central bank’s favored inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE — rose at a 2.5% annual rate last quarter, down from 3% in the first quarter of the year. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core PCE inflation grew at a 2.8% pace, down from 3.7% from January through March.
The US economy, the world's biggest, displayed remarkable resilience in the face of the 11 interest rate hikes the Fed carried out in 2022 and 2023 to fight the worst bout of inflation in four decades. Since peaking at 9.1% in mid-2022, annual inflation as measured by the consumer price index has tumbled to 2.5%.
Despite the surge in borrowing rates, the economy kept growing and employers kept hiring. Still, the job market has shown signs of weakness in recent months. From June through August, America's employers added an average of just 116,000 jobs a month, the lowest three-month average since mid-2020, when the COVID pandemic had paralyzed the economy. The unemployment rate has ticked up from a half-century low 3.4% last year to 4.2%, still relatively low.
Last week, responding to the steady drop in inflation and growing evidence of a more sluggish job market, the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by an unusually large half-point. The rate cut, the Fed’s first in more than four years, reflected its new focus on shoring up the job market now that inflation has largely been tamed.
Some other barometers of the economy still look healthy. Americans last month increased their spending at retailers, for example, suggesting that consumers are still able and willing to spend more despite the cumulative impact of three years of excess inflation and high borrowing rates. The nation’s industrial production rebounded. The pace of single-family-home construction rose sharply from the pace a year earlier.
And this month, consumer sentiment rose for a third straight month, according to preliminary figures from the University of Michigan. The brighter outlook was driven by “more favorable prices as perceived by consumers” for cars, appliances, furniture and other long-lasting goods.
A category within GDP that measures the economy’s underlying strength rose at a healthy 2.7% annual rate, though that was down from 2.9% in the first quarter. This category includes consumer spending and private investment but excludes volatile items like exports, inventories and government spending.
Though the Fed now believes inflation is largely defeated, many Americans remain upset with still-high prices for groceries, gas, rent and other necessities. Former President Donald Trump blames the Biden-Harris administration for sparking an inflationary surge. Vice President Kamala Harris, in turn, has charged that Trump’s promise to slap tariffs on all imports would raise prices for consumers even further.
On Thursday, the Commerce Department also issued revisions to previous GDP estimates. From 2018 through 2023, growth was mostly higher — an average annual rate of 2.3%, up from a previously reported 2.1% — largely because of upward revisions to consumer spending. The revisions showed that GDP grew 2.9% last year, up from the 2.5% previously reported.
Thursday’s report was the government’s third and final estimate of GDP growth for the April-June quarter. It will release its initial estimate of July-September GDP growth on Oct. 30.