Israel’s cyberattacks against Hezbollah’s communication network this week has cast doubt on the Iran-backed party’s ability to wage a wide-scale war against Israel in Lebanon.
In an unprecedented attack, Israel blew up Hezbollah radios and pagers across Lebanon, killing 37 people and wounding about 3,000.
The party relied on the network for communications between operation command rooms and fighters and members in the South where Hezbollah has been launching attacks against Israel since October 8 in support of Hamas in Gaza.
Israel dealt Hezbollah a major blow and may use its moment of weakness to launch a broad war against Lebanon and may force the party to reconsider plans it had placed to face any potential escalation in the fighting.
The attack effectively put Hezbollah on the defensive after it was the one who was taking the initiative and launching operations against Israel. Now, it will have to receive blows as Israel turns to its element of surprise in its attacks. Hezbollah, in its weakened state, will have to retaliate to the assaults to save face.
Political activist and Hezbollah opponent Ali al-Amine stressed that Israel succeeded in targeting several thousand Hezbollah leading and middle members in the communications attack.
It managed to neutralize thousands of members and create unprecedented disarray within the party, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Without a doubt, the attack cost the party the ability to launch attacks first. They had less of an impact on its defense capabilities, he stated.
Furthermore, he noted that many observers believed that Tuesday and Wednesday’s attacks may have been a precursor to an Israeli land incursion in southern Lebanon given that Hezbollah’s communication had been compromised.
Since the incursion has not happened, then Israel may not have taken a decision to make such a move. Perhaps it does not want to or is incapable of handling the repercussions of a Lebanon war - one that needs Washington’s approval, he remarked.
At the moment, Israel is prioritizing military operations in Gaza and the West Bank. Lebanon ultimately remains a political, rather than existential, problem, al-Amine explained.
“A ground war is not on the table for Israel,” he went on to say. “We will likely witness a continuation of the security and technological war, with possible air strikes and landing operations in some regions, similar to what happened in Masyaf” in Syria, he added.
Moreover, he noted that Hezbollah has not been and is now not in any position to wage a war or launch an attack. “It can withstand a defensive war and take in the damage it has incurred, but the timing for the ground war has not arrived yet for Israel,” he said.
Israel will continue to work on shattering Hezbollah’s military and security image, which is an ideal scenario for Tel Aviv, he stressed.
Meanwhile, retired general Dr. Hisham Jaber said Hezbollah was indeed dealt a heavy blow this week, but it is working on containing, so it is unlikely to have a dramatic impact on the ground.
He especially noted that 40 percent of the wounded in the attack were not fighters, but members in charge of logistic and administrative services. In addition, their injuries are not severe, and 70 percent of them can be treated in two or three weeks.
Jaber told Asharq Al-Awsat that despite the attack, Hezbollah was still ready for war and capable of repelling any land incursion.
The Israelis themselves said that Hezbollah has only used 20 to 25 percent of its military capabilities since the beginning of the conflict, he remarked.
As for its communications, Hezbollah boasts a fiber network that is still secure and can only be breached by agents, he explained.
