Doubts Cast over Hezbollah’s Ability to Wage Wide-scale War against Israelhttps://english.aawsat.com/features/5062847-doubts-cast-over-hezbollah%E2%80%99s-ability-wage-wide-scale-war-against-israel
Doubts Cast over Hezbollah’s Ability to Wage Wide-scale War against Israel
Hezbollah fighters carry one of the coffins of four fallen comrades who were killed Tuesday after their handheld pagers exploded, in the southern suburb of Beirut, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP)
Doubts Cast over Hezbollah’s Ability to Wage Wide-scale War against Israel
Hezbollah fighters carry one of the coffins of four fallen comrades who were killed Tuesday after their handheld pagers exploded, in the southern suburb of Beirut, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP)
Israel’s cyberattacks against Hezbollah’s communication network this week has cast doubt on the Iran-backed party’s ability to wage a wide-scale war against Israel in Lebanon.
In an unprecedented attack, Israel blew up Hezbollah radios and pagers across Lebanon, killing 37 people and wounding about 3,000.
The party relied on the network for communications between operation command rooms and fighters and members in the South where Hezbollah has been launching attacks against Israel since October 8 in support of Hamas in Gaza.
Israel dealt Hezbollah a major blow and may use its moment of weakness to launch a broad war against Lebanon and may force the party to reconsider plans it had placed to face any potential escalation in the fighting.
The attack effectively put Hezbollah on the defensive after it was the one who was taking the initiative and launching operations against Israel. Now, it will have to receive blows as Israel turns to its element of surprise in its attacks. Hezbollah, in its weakened state, will have to retaliate to the assaults to save face.
Political activist and Hezbollah opponent Ali al-Amine stressed that Israel succeeded in targeting several thousand Hezbollah leading and middle members in the communications attack.
It managed to neutralize thousands of members and create unprecedented disarray within the party, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Without a doubt, the attack cost the party the ability to launch attacks first. They had less of an impact on its defense capabilities, he stated.
Furthermore, he noted that many observers believed that Tuesday and Wednesday’s attacks may have been a precursor to an Israeli land incursion in southern Lebanon given that Hezbollah’s communication had been compromised.
Since the incursion has not happened, then Israel may not have taken a decision to make such a move. Perhaps it does not want to or is incapable of handling the repercussions of a Lebanon war - one that needs Washington’s approval, he remarked.
At the moment, Israel is prioritizing military operations in Gaza and the West Bank. Lebanon ultimately remains a political, rather than existential, problem, al-Amine explained.
“A ground war is not on the table for Israel,” he went on to say. “We will likely witness a continuation of the security and technological war, with possible air strikes and landing operations in some regions, similar to what happened in Masyaf” in Syria, he added.
Moreover, he noted that Hezbollah has not been and is now not in any position to wage a war or launch an attack. “It can withstand a defensive war and take in the damage it has incurred, but the timing for the ground war has not arrived yet for Israel,” he said.
Israel will continue to work on shattering Hezbollah’s military and security image, which is an ideal scenario for Tel Aviv, he stressed.
Meanwhile, retired general Dr. Hisham Jaber said Hezbollah was indeed dealt a heavy blow this week, but it is working on containing, so it is unlikely to have a dramatic impact on the ground.
He especially noted that 40 percent of the wounded in the attack were not fighters, but members in charge of logistic and administrative services. In addition, their injuries are not severe, and 70 percent of them can be treated in two or three weeks.
Jaber told Asharq Al-Awsat that despite the attack, Hezbollah was still ready for war and capable of repelling any land incursion.
The Israelis themselves said that Hezbollah has only used 20 to 25 percent of its military capabilities since the beginning of the conflict, he remarked.
As for its communications, Hezbollah boasts a fiber network that is still secure and can only be breached by agents, he explained.
How Are Ukraine Strikes, Middle East War Driving US Fuel Prices?https://english.aawsat.com/features/5332608-how-are-ukraine-strikes-middle-east-war-driving-us-fuel-prices
A truck is filled with diesel fuel at a gas station on October 16, 2026, in Bayonne, New Jersey. (Getty Images/AFP)
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How Are Ukraine Strikes, Middle East War Driving US Fuel Prices?
A truck is filled with diesel fuel at a gas station on October 16, 2026, in Bayonne, New Jersey. (Getty Images/AFP)
Ahead of next month's midterm US elections, Donald Trump has increasingly blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries for surging energy prices back home, which are causing the president political headaches.
However, analysts say the main driver of higher fuel prices remains the US-Iran war.
- Which Russian sites have been targeted? -
Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks on Russia's energy industry over the past 18 months, seeking to cut the Kremlin's revenues and undermine its ability to finance the war.
The strikes have targeted "mostly refineries", Julien Mathonniere, an economist at Energy Intelligence, told AFP.
On average, one Russian refinery was hit every three days during the first eight months of the year, according to the International Energy Agency.
"Russia's net diesel exports fell by approximately 80 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2026, from around 1.05 million barrels per day to just 200,000 barrels per day," said Viktor Kurilov, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
In response to the disruption in domestic fuel supplies, Moscow introduced a ban on diesel exports from July until the end of October.
- Why does this concern Trump? -
Trump has repeatedly condemned the attacks on Russian refineries, saying Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky disobeyed his orders to halt the strikes.
By contrast, Trump has not commented on the intensification in recent months of Russian strikes against Ukrainian territory, which have caused a surge in civilian casualties.
Trump's frustrations come as the Republicans face dim prospects in the November midterm elections, partly because of soaring fuel prices.
US diesel prices at the pump climbed to a record of $6.53 per gallon at the end of September, up from $3.75 per gallon before the war, according to the American Automobile Association.
Energy price rises are also fueling inflation across the economy.
- What is the Middle East role? -
Ukraine's strikes explain "about one-third of the global diesel shortfall, currently estimated at 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day", said Mathonniere.
But "the impact of previous drone strikes (by Kyiv) on global product prices before the Middle East crisis was minimal", James Henderson, a researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told AFP.
Energy exports from the Gulf have plunged since US-Israeli strikes on Iran from February caused Tehran to respond by choking off the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas transit.
At the same time, maritime freight costs have soared and major refining capacity in the Middle East has been hit, adding to upward pressure on oil prices.
- Can prices fall before midterms? -
Relations between Kyiv and Washington soured further this month after Trump announced a controversial agreement with Moscow to lift certain sanctions and allow Russian diesel imports, supposedly to ease prices.
The US president said Wednesday that he believed an end to the Russia-Ukraine war could be closer than ever, as the Kremlin said it was willing to restart trilateral talks with Kyiv and Washington next month.
For now, however, the strikes continue.
"There's not much that can be done in the very short term to lower diesel prices," said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
Even if the Russia conflict ended or an energy ceasefire was reached, the impact "wouldn't really move the needle massively for the US midterm elections", he added.
Repairs to damaged infrastructure take time, while continued hostilities in the Middle East drive energy prices higher.
‘Generational Rage’: Young Europeans Fight to Be Heardhttps://english.aawsat.com/features/5332606-%E2%80%98generational-rage%E2%80%99-young-europeans-fight-be-heard
Demonstrators take part in a protest organized by student collectives and trade unions in Paris, France, October 22, 2026. (Reuters)
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‘Generational Rage’: Young Europeans Fight to Be Heard
Demonstrators take part in a protest organized by student collectives and trade unions in Paris, France, October 22, 2026. (Reuters)
From blockaded schools in Rome to tent camps in Madrid and street protests in France, young people across Europe are turning their anger on a political class they say is not listening.
Their demands vary, but they are united in wanting to make their often marginalized voices heard, sometimes even with radical methods in the face of heavy-handed policing.
"We are fighting and taking our future in our hands," said Damiano Fusa, 18, a student at Rome's Cavour high school, the first to be occupied in a wave of student takeovers that has spread across the Italian capital.
"We're not represented by anyone," Fusa told AFP, criticizing both Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's hard-right coalition and previous center-left governments for cutting education funding and ignoring young people's needs.
Hundreds of thousands of high school and university students have rallied in France, Italy, Spain and other European countries in recent weeks, with some protests descending into violence.
Governments have largely focused on restoring order, with France imposing partial curfews and Italy deploying soldiers, responses protesters say obscure their demands and could make things even worse.
"Politicians are responding in ways that are completely disconnected from reality, completely absurd," said Luis Marques, a 19-year-old psychology student in Lisbon.
Students are demanding action on soaring rents, more spending on education instead of defense and more job opportunities for young people.
But experts say the unrest reflects a broader sense among many young Europeans that they have been shut out of politics and sidelined.
"These young people do not just feel like they do not have a place in politics, they feel they are not being heard at all," said Geoffrey Pleyers, president of the International Sociological Association.
Rosario Forlenza, a professor at Rome's Luiss University, called it a "European generational revolt" rooted in a social and economic crisis "to which politicians cannot give a substantive response".
"Young people are a minority of the population that is shrinking and so their social, economic, cultural, political and electoral weight is becoming ever more irrelevant," he said.
- 'Inspiring other people' -
The anger has been particularly palpable in France and Italy, where fresh demonstrations are planned for Saturday.
"People are very angry, they've had enough. Working hard all day and still not being able to fill up their shopping cart," a 20-year-old student who gave his name as Eddy told AFP at a protest in Bordeaux last weekend.
"Will smashing everything change anything? I think it can be a jolt to wake up the politicians. We don't know what else to do to make ourselves heard. The ballot box? We don't believe in it anymore," he said.
Protest movements across Europe are increasingly drawing inspiration from one another, and even looking to youth-led movements further afield in places like Bangladesh, India and Nepal.
In Italy, one student slogan last week urged protesters to "do as in France", while shared symbols, including the Jolly Roger pirate flag, have become common across youth rallies.
Marcos Navarro, 22, a laboratory quality-control technician from Madrid, said protesters across Europe were meeting to share tactics.
"They've come to ask us: 'How did you do it? How do you organize yourselves?' We've already exchanged ideas," said Navarro, who has been camping with hundreds of others in Madrid's central Puerta del Sol square since September to protest housing costs and evictions.
Ayla Herrero, a 26-year-old anthropologist helping at the camp's infirmary, said it was "inspiring for us to know that we're inspiring other people, that it doesn't just stay here".
- 'Not acceptable' -
Concern about the rise in military spending in Europe following the Russian invasion of Ukraine has also been a rallying point.
Nikos Mavroudis, a 17-year-old high school student in Athens' Exarchia neighborhood, said the money could be better spent on his school, where chunks of plaster are falling.
"It's not acceptable for classrooms to be dangerous," said Mavroudis, who hopes to become a cook and plans to move elsewhere in Europe to "countries where things are better".
At Rome's occupied Morgagni high school, where students have barricaded entrances with desks, protesters pointed to the crumbling infrastructure as evidence of neglect.
An 18-year-old, who did not want to be named, said the media and politicians in Italy were focusing too heavily on looting and vandalism by some protesters.
"It turns hatred against the students who are victims of this system," he said.
Asked about the violence, Sabrina Brizzola, 24, coordinator of the Italian University Students' Union, said organizations like hers should "organize and channel this generational rage".
"We have shared concerns, even if our ways of protesting differ," she said.
Iran's Postponed War: Who Holds the Power to Ignite It?https://english.aawsat.com/features/5332377-irans-postponed-war-who-holds-power-ignite-it
Iran's Postponed War: Who Holds the Power to Ignite It?
A US F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet refuels from a KC-135 tanker aircraft during an aerial patrol over the Middle East (CENTCOM)
With Israel preparing for possible military strikes against Iran, and Washington showing restraint ahead of the US midterm elections, questions are mounting over whether the region is experiencing a temporary pause dictated by electoral calculations or a final opportunity for a political settlement.
While one strategic affairs expert expects a major confrontation by the end of November, two others downplay the influence of election results on decisions by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, arguing that strategic considerations will ultimately prove decisive.
The question in Washington and Tel Aviv is no longer simply whether war with Iran will resume, but when, on what scale and with what objectives.
Reports that Israel prepared a large-scale bombing campaign against Iranian targets before postponing it following Trump's objections have revived a sensitive question: Is the war awaiting the conclusion of the US and Israeli elections, or does its postponement reflect deeper disagreements over the merits of escalation?
These questions are gaining urgency as elections approach in both countries. Assessments by three American experts reveal differing expectations about military developments and political calculations, but converge on one central point: Election results alone will not determine the outcome of the confrontation.
US President Donald Trump greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as he arrives at the West Wing of the White House in Washington, DC on September 29, 2025. (Photo by Jim WATSON / AFP)
A War Awaiting Its Moment
The Financial Times reported Wednesday that Netanyahu had instructed the Israeli military to prepare a large-scale bombing campaign against Iran, initially scheduled for October 10, before the operation was canceled after Trump objected to resuming military action ahead of the US elections.
According to the newspaper, the plan included strikes on nuclear facilities, civilian infrastructure and sites associated with the Iranian regime.
Israeli officials also presented US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth with a list of targets based on new intelligence during his unannounced visit to Israel on Monday.
Axios had previously reported that the Pentagon requested the completion of preparations for extensive military operations without setting a date for their execution.
The outlet cited officials as saying that Hegseth and US military commanders in the region were pushing for renewed strikes, while most of Trump's advisers favored continuing sanctions and economic pressure.
These developments suggest that the disagreement concerns the timing and necessity of military force more than the ultimate objectives.
Washington wants to secure Iranian concessions on Tehran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel fears that continued negotiations could allow Iran to rebuild its military capabilities.
Scenarios for Escalation
Offering a more pessimistic assessment, Farzin Nadimi, an expert on Iranian military and security affairs at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Asharq Al-Awsat that all indicators point toward a major military confrontation involving the United States, Israel and Iran, and potentially other regional countries, by the end of November.
Nadimi did not rule out the possibility that intensive diplomatic efforts could prevent escalation, but considered the chances of success extremely slim.
He outlined a scenario beginning with a renewed wave of strikes targeting senior leaders and command-and-control centers, followed by attacks on nuclear and missile facilities and air defense systems, eventually escalating into a comprehensive bombing campaign against Iranian military and security installations.
Whether the campaign would expand to infrastructure, oil and gas facilities, and petrochemical plants would depend on the nature of Iran's response, he said.
Nadimi warned that Tehran might make a more determined effort this time to sink US warships and shoot down manned aircraft, while also deploying longer-range, medium-range ballistic missiles.
He raised an even more dangerous possibility: a ground incursion into Kuwait or Saudi Arabia from Iraq, carried out by Shiite factions linked to the Popular Mobilization Forces.
This remains a hypothetical scenario proposed by the researcher, rather than confirmed evidence of an Iranian plan to carry out such an operation.
At the same time, Nadimi ruled out a US ground invasion of Iran, suggesting that the next confrontation would more closely resemble the previous 39-day war.
Washington's Calculations
Brian Katulis, a foreign policy and regional affairs expert at the Middle East Institute, downplayed the significance of election results in determining the course of the war.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the US midterm elections were unlikely to substantially affect decisions by the Trump administration or Israel regarding Iran, because the threats posed by Tehran would remain the primary factor shaping their next steps.
Katulis noted that Trump is experiencing his weakest political position across his two presidential terms, amid declining approval ratings and the possibility that Republicans could lose seats in Congress.
In his view, however, that does not mean the election results will constrain the president's ability to take military action, given the executive branch's broad national security powers relative to those of Congress.
Katulis identified two more consequential factors in the administration's calculations.
The first is a shortage of certain types of ammunition and military equipment following the previous phase of the war, which has left US forces more exposed in the region and elsewhere. The second is the economic cost of another confrontation.
These concerns are particularly significant amid continuing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and global energy markets, as renewed operations against Iranian facilities could cause further disruptions to oil supplies.
As for Israel, Katulis argued that disagreements among political leaders tend to diminish when the perceived Iranian threat is at issue.
Beyond the Ballot Box
Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, went further, dismissing the possibility that the elections would fundamentally change the political dynamics governing decisions about war.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Trump would remain the ultimate decision-maker regardless of developments in Congress.
Indeed, Rubin suggested that Trump might feel greater freedom to make military decisions after the elections, given that he would not face another presidential election.
In Israel, Rubin argued that widespread opposition to Netanyahu does not necessarily translate into comparable divisions over Iran.
In his assessment, there is broad agreement among Israeli candidates on both the right and left regarding the nature of the threats posed by Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Rubin also pointed to a striking possibility: Another Israeli prime minister might be able to act more effectively than Netanyahu because some objections from members of Congress, diplomats and foreign ministers are directed more at Netanyahu personally than at Israel itself.
Consequently, Netanyahu's electoral defeat would not necessarily reduce the likelihood of confrontation, just as Republican losses in Congress would not automatically give lawmakers the power to prevent Trump from resuming military operations.
Ultimately, the elections appear more likely to influence the timing of a confrontation than to determine its objectives.
Trump's decision to postpone military action does not mean the military option has been abandoned, just as Israel's preparations do not mean that a final decision to go to war has been made.
Negotiations remain the alternative path, despite continuing disagreements over nuclear concessions and the conditions for ending the war.
The conclusion of the elections could remove one reason for postponement, but it would not eliminate the military, economic and political obstacles.
The central question remains whether Washington will use its military preparations to secure a negotiated settlement or view the failure of diplomacy as justification for resuming the war.
In either case, Trump's decision, rather than election results alone, will be the most influential factor in determining the direction of the crisis.
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