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Gold Prices Inch Higher With US Inflation Data in Focus

A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)
A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)
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Gold Prices Inch Higher With US Inflation Data in Focus

A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)
A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)

Gold prices nudged higher on Thursday, while traders await a key US inflation data due later in the day to gauge the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy stance.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,613.70 per ounce, as of 0602 GMT, after easing for the previous six sessions. Prices scaled a record high last month.
US gold futures also gained 0.2% at $2,630.80, Reuters reported.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is due at 1230 GMT and Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Friday.
"If core CPI comes hotter, US Treasury yields will go higher and that is bad for gold. I think there is room for prices to come down, but don't necessarily see a downtrend in the big picture," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro, Tastylive.
Markets see an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in November.
A "substantial majority" of Fed officials at the September meeting supported beginning an era of easier monetary policy with an outsized half-point rate cut, but agreed that further easing will be data-driven, according to its minutes.
The zero-yielding bullion is preferred in a low-interest rate environment as well as amid periods of economic and geopolitical turmoil.
Analysts at BMI increased their 2024 gold price forecast to $2,375 from $2,250, and noted that a potential Fed rate reduction comes against a myriad of geopolitical tensions, with the Middle East jitters and the upcoming US presidential elections at the forefront.
Meanwhile, Israel's plans to strike Iran added to concerns of wider conflict in the Middle East.
Spot silver edged 0.1% higher to $30.48 per ounce.
ANZ upgraded its short-term silver forecast to $34. "Solid industrial demand and stagnant supply are expected to widen the market deficit, presenting a strong investment case," it said.
Platinum added 1.5% to $959.56 and palladium firmed 1% to $1,049.50.

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Will Escalation Stop Israeli Gas Production?

File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)
File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)
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Will Escalation Stop Israeli Gas Production?

File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)
File photo of the Israeli Leviathan field (Reuters)

The American energy giant Chevron, which operates the Leviathan field off the Mediterranean coast of Israel, has decided to suspend work on laying an underwater pipeline, part of its third pipeline project, due to the escalating conflict and fears of potential missile strikes. This follows the earlier closure of the Tamar and Leviathan gas platforms as a “precautionary measure” during the Iranian attack on Israel on Oct. 1.

These developments came as the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the Leviathan field, located 130 kilometers off the coast of Haifa, was the target of a missile barrage fired by Hezbollah on Wednesday morning at Mount Carmel and Haifa. Chevron subsequently activated “special procedures,” stating that it was dealing with an operational incident on the drilling platform.

During last week’s Iranian missile attack, Yedioth Ahronoth noted that NewMed Energy, a partner in the Leviathan and Tamar gas fields (the latter located about 19 kilometers off the Gaza Strip coast), informed the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange of Chevron’s decision to temporarily shut down the Leviathan field for several hours.

“In light of the latest security developments and based on the system’s operational considerations, the operator occasionally halts production from the Leviathan reservoir for certain periods,” NewMed Energy, which holds a 45.3% stake in Leviathan, stated to the stock exchange.

Chevron holds a 39.6% stake in Leviathan, while Ratio Energies owns 15% of the project. Chevron also has a 15% stake in Tamar.

Leviathan’s partners approved a $429 million investment on Aug. 1 to launch the preliminary engineering design phase to increase Leviathan’s gas export capacity from the Mediterranean Sea field to 21 billion cubic meters annually.

NewMed Energy stated that Chevron had informed the partners that plans for laying the underwater pipeline have been postponed until Apr. 2025—initially scheduled to begin in the second half of 2025—due to the deteriorating security situation. The delay is expected to be at least six months, affecting next year’s projected cash flow.

Currently, gas from the platform is transported to the shore and integrated into Israel’s national grid, where it is distributed to Israel, Egypt, and Jordan.

The Leviathan field was discovered in 2010 by NewMed Energy, Chevron (then known as Noble Energy), and Ratio. Natural gas production from Leviathan began on December 31, 2019, and since then, it has become a key source of gas for Israel, Egypt, and Jordan.

The third pipeline project was initiated by the Leviathan partners in July 2023, aimed at boosting Leviathan’s annual production capacity from 12 billion cubic meters to around 21 billion cubic meters. This increase is intended to meet growing local demand and export to neighboring countries and international markets, according to NewMed Energy.

Israel continues to export gas through pipelines from Leviathan and Tamar to Jordan and Egypt. Israeli exports to Egypt rose from 4.9 billion cubic meters in 2022 to 6.3 billion cubic meters in 2023, while sales to Jordan remained steady year-on-year at 2.7 billion cubic meters. In the second quarter of this year, Leviathan’s total gas production reached 2.8 billion cubic meters, with exports to Egypt rising by 12.5% to 1.8 billion cubic meters during the same period, while 0.6 billion cubic meters flowed to Jordan, according to Energy Intelligence.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the potential global market impact of disruptions at Leviathan and Tamar could reduce global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply by nearly 9 billion cubic meters annually, or 1.7% of global LNG supplies, according to a report by Energy Intelligence.