Rescue workers at a site damaged by an Israeli airstrike in Qana, south Lebanon (Reuters)
The World Bank has lowered its growth forecast in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to 2.2% this year from 2.4% in its June forecast because of uncertainties heightened by the conflict in the region.
In its latest semi-annual MENA Economic Update, entitled Growth in the Middle East and North Africa, the Bank said that growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is forecast to rise to 1.9% in 2024 from 0.5% in 2023.
Growth in the MENA region reached 1.8% in 2023.
For GCC economies, the current account surplus is projected to decrease from 8.1% of GDP in 2023 to 6.6% 2024.
Although all GCC countries have consistently maintained current account surpluses in both years, the report said most are expected to have a decline in 2024.
In Saudi Arabia, the report also projects the economy to grow by 1.6% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025.
In Qatar, the economy is expected to grow by 2% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025 while in the UAE, it will grow by 3.3% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025 and in Bahrain, 3.5% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025.
Fiscal surpluses among GCC countries are expected to narrow, reaching 0.2% of GDP in 2024, down from 0.5% in 2023, and 6.3% in 2022.
Also, growth is expected to decelerate in the whole of developing MENA, the Bank report noted.
In developing oil importers, it will decelerate from 3.2% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024, as the repercussions of the ongoing conflict spill over directly onto some countries and exacerbate pre-existing vulnerabilities in others.
Real GDP growth in developing oil exporters will decline from 3.2% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024.
Effects of Ongoing Conflict
The report said the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already inflicted a heavy human and economic toll.
The Palestinian territories are nearing economic collapse, with their largest economic contraction on record.
Gaza’s economy shrank by 86% in the first half of 2024 and the West Bank is facing an unprecedented fiscal and private sector crisis.
In conflict-affected Lebanon, the outlook remains highly uncertain and will be shaped by the trajectory of the conflict.
Meanwhile, other neighboring countries like Jordan and Egypt have been affected by declines in tourism receipts and fiscal revenues.
“Peace and stability are the foundation of sustainable development,” said Ousmane Dione, World Bank Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa.
“The World Bank Group is committed to remaining engaged in the conflict-affected areas of the Middle East and North Africa, and to building a future worthy of all people of the region,” he added.
Opportunities of Accelerating Inclusive Growth
The report also looks at key windows of opportunity where countries can rapidly advance inclusive growth by accelerating reforms.
This includes rebalancing the footprint of the public and the private sectors, better allocating talent in the labor market, closing the gender gap, and promoting innovation.
Despite the significant gains in levels of education over the last 50 years, the rate of female labor force participation in the Middle East and North Africa stands at 19 percent – the lowest in the world.
Closing gender employment gaps would result in a remarkable 51 percent increase in per capita income in the typical MENA country. For economies to thrive, women must be included, the report said.
Roberta Gatti, World Bank Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa said: “Transforming the role of the state would lead to substantial gains in productivity.”
“For example, the region has the largest share of public sector employees in the world, particularly women. But unfortunately, in MENA, a larger public sector does not necessarily correspond to better public goods and services. Mobilizing talent toward the private sector would improve the allocation of resources, with aggregate productivity gains up to 45%,” she added.
The report said that tapping into the frontier of global knowledge and technology will also boost growth in MENA.
More international trade, leveraging the region’s strategic geographic location, can facilitate this process of infusion and innovation.
Also, improving data quality and transparency – which are lagging behind by international standards – is another key lever to facilitate the diffusion of ideas.
FILE PHOTO: A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 8, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
The recent breakthrough in the Strait of Hormuz crisis is more than a temporary development aimed at ensuring the flow of energy shipments. It represents a strategic shift with deep and direct economic and investment implications for the financial systems of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. As this vital waterway serves as the main artery of global energy trade, carrying the bulk of Gulf oil and gas exports to international markets, the restoration of normal shipping activity opens new prospects for broader regional stability.
The United States and Iran recently announced a preliminary agreement to end the war in the Middle East and reopen the strategically important Strait of Hormuz after months of bloodshed and global economic disruption. US President Donald Trump said the strait, a critical route for global oil supplies that Iran had restricted since the start of the war, would be reopened. He added: “The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow.”
Global markets reacted immediately to news of the preliminary agreement. Benchmark Brent crude futures fell more than 4.5 percent, dropping below $84 a barrel as investors awaited the signing of a formal treaty in Switzerland next Friday. The return of normal maritime traffic has opened new prospects for broader regional stability.
In comments to Asharq Al-Awsat, financial and economic adviser Dr. Hussein Al-Attas said the easing of the crisis goes beyond preventing disruptions to crude supplies and should instead be viewed as a structural support for financial stability. He noted that the benefits of renewed confidence far outweigh the temporary oil price spikes generated by geopolitical tensions.
Last week, the World Bank indicated that the expected gradual resumption of oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz would help ease financial bottlenecks across GCC countries. It said the recovery of oil export growth would gradually support regional GDP growth, which is projected to reach 4.2 percent in 2027.
These optimistic recovery forecasts mark a turning point after a severe contractionary period. The World Bank noted in its structural analysis that the economic impact of the disruption was not uniform across GCC states, but depended largely on each country's reliance on the strait as its sole export outlet.
Kuwait and Iraq were identified as the most severely affected because neither has alternative maritime export routes outside the Arabian Gulf. The disruption created acute financing gaps and large budget deficits as millions of barrels per day remained stranded during months of restrictions.
Qatar faced complex logistical challenges in securing alternative shipping routes for liquefied natural gas exports bound eastward, resulting in delayed shipments, operational pressure on liquefaction facilities, and a sharp increase in insurance costs for Qatari tankers.
Major regional ports were also affected, particularly in re-export activity and logistics services. The financial and banking sectors in the UAE and Bahrain incurred direct costs as international funds increased the risk premium applied to investment assets in both countries.
In contrast, Saudi Arabia demonstrated considerable logistical and structural resilience during the crisis, benefiting from advanced infrastructure that enabled it to redirect more than 60 percent of its oil exports through the Red Sea via the East-West Pipeline. Likewise, Oman's ports on the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, including Sohar and Duqm, provided the Omani economy with geographic flexibility beyond the constraints of the Strait of Hormuz.
FILE PHOTO: A drone view of vessels anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 8, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
Filling Financial Gaps
Technical analyses of energy markets indicate that the gradual restoration of navigation through the strait will allow Gulf producers to return to normal export levels and generate the revenues needed to close multibillion-dollar financing and budget gaps that emerged as a result of the maritime restrictions.
The breakthrough also coincides with substantial pent-up demand from major Asian energy importers. Governments and refiners across Asia sharply curtailed consumption during the conflict and drew down inventories. They are now prepared to rebuild strategic reserves, ensuring sustained demand over the medium and long term.
Despite these positive prospects, energy experts quoted in a notable Associated Press report expect it will take several months before energy companies can fully restore operations to meet global demand. They noted that slow shipping and refining processes, along with lingering concerns about safe passage through the strait, mean the agreement's full positive impact will not be felt immediately.
In managing the crisis, Saudi Arabia's logistical and structural resilience again stood out. During the conflict, the Kingdom successfully utilized its advanced infrastructure to redirect more than 60 percent of its oil exports through the Red Sea via the East-West Pipeline, enabling it to maintain supply flows, seize market opportunities and mitigate export disruptions. This demonstrated the effectiveness and capability of Riyadh's alternative logistics infrastructure even under the most challenging geopolitical conditions.
A person sits in shallow water as cargo and commercial vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Monday, June 8, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)
Declining Risk Premium
Al-Attas told Asharq Al-Awsat that the most immediate benefit of the breakthrough is the decline in the geopolitical risk premium. During periods of conflict and uncertainty over potential closures, this premium rises automatically across Gulf assets and markets, creating pressure on financial markets and increasing operating costs.
With tensions easing, the premium falls sharply, directly boosting the confidence of regional and international investors and encouraging a strong return of both short-term and long-term investment flows to regional markets.
This decline is also closely linked to a recovery in maritime logistics and lower transportation and insurance costs. Continued tensions in the strait had driven shipping rates and war-risk insurance premiums to record levels, affecting trade flows and supply chains across the Gulf and beyond.
As stability returns, these costs are expected to decline significantly, improving the efficiency of both regional trade and international shipping routes.
Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 14, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer
Momentum for Financial Markets
Al-Attas expects Gulf financial markets, including equities and fixed-income instruments, to respond positively to lower geopolitical risks. Investor appetite for blue-chip stocks is likely to increase, particularly in the banking, petrochemicals, transportation and logistics sectors, which serve as key drivers of regional exchanges.
The benefits will extend beyond equities. Gulf bonds and sukuk are expected to gain from lower yields and reduced risk premiums, increasing the attractiveness of sovereign and corporate debt instruments to global investment funds.
Greater clarity in the outlook also enhances the appeal of foreign direct investment. Global capital is constantly in search of stable and secure environments. As concerns over international shipping routes and energy corridors recede, Gulf countries become increasingly attractive destinations for foreign investment, particularly given the large-scale opportunities in tourism, industry and technology tied to national development plans and economic diversification efforts.
Regarding oil markets, Al-Attas said that although oil prices could ease somewhat as fears of supply shortages and disruptions fade, this price stability should be viewed as a positive development and a genuine gain over the medium and long term. Gulf states are not seeking temporary price spikes; rather, they benefit more from sustained global demand and the reliable, secure delivery of exports to both traditional and emerging customers.
This stability is also expected to improve the domestic business environment by accelerating major economic projects. Periods of uncertainty often lead companies and large investment groups to postpone expansion decisions or slow capital spending and liquidity deployment. With risks receding, private-sector decision-makers now have a clearer outlook for advancing strategic planning, investment expansion and hiring, supporting the region's long-term development goals.
Most Gulf Markets Gain on Iran Dealhttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5284240-most-gulf-markets-gain-iran-deal
Traders wait at the Bahrain Bourse in Manama_ Bahrain_ November 8_ 2020. REUTERS
Most Gulf equities rose in early trade on Monday after the US and Iran announced a preliminary deal to end the war and restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Pakistan's prime minister said the two countries are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, following mediation by Islamabad.
Trump said on Sunday the waterway would reopen "toll free" and that the US blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted, while Iran's Mehr news agency reported the draft deal envisages reopening it within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index gained 0.5%, with the country's biggest lender by assets, Saudi National Bank.
However, oil giant Saudi Aramco slipped 1.1%.
Brent crude futures fell $3.65, or 4.2%, to $83.68 a barrel by 0630 GMT.
Qatar's benchmark index advanced 1%, with Qatar National Bank, the region's largest lender, jumped 1.9%.
UAE bourses were closed for a public holiday.
Musk Says SpaceX Could Bring $1 Trillion in Revenue by 2030https://english.aawsat.com/business/5284233-musk-says-spacex-could-bring-1-trillion-revenue-2030
Founder, CEO, Chairman, and Chief Engineer of SpaceX, Elon Musk, speaks via videolink on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York City, US, June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Musk Says SpaceX Could Bring $1 Trillion in Revenue by 2030
Founder, CEO, Chairman, and Chief Engineer of SpaceX, Elon Musk, speaks via videolink on the day of SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York City, US, June 12, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Elon Musk said on Sunday that his rocket company, SpaceX, could bring in $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, making the statement two days after the company went public, valuing it at over $2 trillion.
"And I would be surprised if revenue is not greater than $1T in 2031," he wrote on his social media platform X, replying to journalist and financial commentator Jon Erlichman.
SpaceX on Friday became the sixth-largest US firm, cementing Musk's status as the world's first trillionaire.
However, the company still makes far less money than similarly valued tech giants like Broadcom and Amazon.com.
In 2025, SpaceX's revenue jumped to $18.67 billion from $14.02 billion a year earlier, but the company swung to a net loss of $4.94 billion from a profit of $791 million.
Some Wall Street analysts are cautious about the company's growth.
Goldman had estimated that SpaceX's revenue would exceed $470 billion in 2030, while Morgan Stanley projected it would reach nearly $330 billion, according to a Wall Street Journal report from earlier this month.
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