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Hamas Likely to Name New Leader from Outside Gaza after Sinwar’s Death

Houthi supporters walk past paintings showing the two late leaders of Hamas Yahya Sinwar (R) and Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian people, one day after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, in Sanaa, Yemen, 18 October 2024. (EPA)
Houthi supporters walk past paintings showing the two late leaders of Hamas Yahya Sinwar (R) and Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian people, one day after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, in Sanaa, Yemen, 18 October 2024. (EPA)
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Hamas Likely to Name New Leader from Outside Gaza after Sinwar’s Death

Houthi supporters walk past paintings showing the two late leaders of Hamas Yahya Sinwar (R) and Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian people, one day after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, in Sanaa, Yemen, 18 October 2024. (EPA)
Houthi supporters walk past paintings showing the two late leaders of Hamas Yahya Sinwar (R) and Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian people, one day after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, in Sanaa, Yemen, 18 October 2024. (EPA)

The Palestinian armed group Hamas will likely replace Yahya Sinwar with a new political leader based outside Gaza while his brother - Mohammad Sinwar - is expected to assume a bigger role directing the war against Israel in the territory, experts say.

Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack that ignited the devastating Gaza war, was killed by Israeli forces in a gunbattle on Wednesday -- the second time in less than three months that Hamas has lost its top leader.

Its previous chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Iran in July almost certainly by Israel.

When Sinwar replaced him, he fused together both the military and political leadership in Gaza, but that does not appear likely this time around.

After more than a year of ferocious Israeli attacks that have pounded Hamas, killed thousands of its fighters and eliminated senior figures both inside and out of Gaza, it is not clear how the group will emerge from this latest blow.

Sinwar's deputy Khalil Al-Hayya, who is viewed as a potential successor, struck a defiant note on Friday, saying Israeli hostages would not be returned until Israeli troops withdrew from Gaza and the war ended.

Hamas has a history of quickly and efficiently replacing its fallen leaders, with its top decision-making body, the Shura Council, tasked with naming a new head.

The Shura Council represents all Hamas members in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Israeli prisons and the Palestinian diaspora, meaning the new leader should have the authority to enter ceasefire talks even if he is not in Gaza, where Hamas gunmen still hold dozens of Israelis hostage.

Besides Hayya, who is Hamas' chief negotiator, the other main leadership contenders are Khaled Meshaal, Haniyeh's predecessor, and Mohammad Darwish, a little-known figure who chairs the Shura Council, according to analysts and a Hamas source.

Hamas will need to notify Qatar, which has played a major role in rounds of so far fruitless ceasefire talks, and other regional capitals ahead of its decision, the source said.

DIVIDING DUTIES

Ashraf Abouelhoul, an expert on Palestinian affairs, expected Sinwar's responsibilities to be split between two roles - one overseeing military affairs and another running the political office, responsible for international contacts and shaping policies.

"Iran is Hamas strongest ally, which supports the group with money and weapons, and their blessing is key to who becomes Sinwar's successor," said Abouelhoul, managing editor of the state-owned newspaper Al-Ahram in Egypt.

He expected Hamas to stick by core demands in future ceasefire talks, chiefly that Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza and stop the war. But it could show more flexibility on some conditions, such as the details of any deal swapping Israeli hostages for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared Sinwar's killing a milestone but that the war is not yet over, saying fighting would continue until the hostages are released.

With Sinwar dead, the Hamas leadership for Gaza has temporarily passed to his Qatar-based deputy, Hayya.

But the ongoing war and communication difficulties might impose limits on just how much day-to-day contact Hayya can have with men on the ground, leaving the armed wing - the Qassam Brigades - in the driving seat, experts say.

A Hamas source said Hayya was expected to encounter no problems exercising his role as "de facto Gaza leader". The source noted that Hayya had maintained good relations with the military wing and had been close to both Sinwar and Haniyeh.

Akram Attallah, a Palestinian political analyst, said he expected the armed wing to respect Hayya's authority - even from afar. He also expected Mohammad Sinwar to emerge as a more significant figure in the armed wing and in Hamas in general.

A veteran commander of the Qassam Brigades, Mohammad Sinwar has seldom appeared in public, has long been on Israel's most-wanted list and has survived several attempts on his life, Hamas sources said.

Hamas-led gunmen killed 1,200 people and abducted another 250 during the Oct. 7 attack, according to Israeli tallies. This prompted an Israeli offensive which, according to Palestinian authorities, has killed more than 42,000 Palestinians, laid waste to Gaza, and driven nearly all its population from their homes.

Sinwar's appointment in August was seen as both a show of defiance and internal unity by Hamas.

His close ties to Iran were seen as a factor supporting his candidacy. Both Darwish and Hayya are also seen as close to Tehran, whose support will be vital for Hamas to recover after the war.

Meanwhile, the prospects of the prominent former Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal have been clouded by a record of friction with Tehran after his support for the revolt in 2011 against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Attallah said Hayya's ties to Iran stood him in better stead than Meshaal. But if Iran softened its opposition to Meshaal, he may have a chance, he said.

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Arab World

Analysts: Bab al-Mandab Tests Limits of Saudi-Iranian Reconciliation

Beijing faces a difficult challenge in ensuring Tehran fulfills its commitments under the agreement with Saudi Arabia, according to analysts. (SPA)
Beijing faces a difficult challenge in ensuring Tehran fulfills its commitments under the agreement with Saudi Arabia, according to analysts. (SPA)
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Analysts: Bab al-Mandab Tests Limits of Saudi-Iranian Reconciliation

Beijing faces a difficult challenge in ensuring Tehran fulfills its commitments under the agreement with Saudi Arabia, according to analysts. (SPA)
Beijing faces a difficult challenge in ensuring Tehran fulfills its commitments under the agreement with Saudi Arabia, according to analysts. (SPA)

More than three years after Saudi Arabia and Iran signed their agreement in Beijing, brokered by China, the reconciliation between Riyadh and Tehran is facing one of its most difficult tests, amid accusations that Iran is supporting armed groups in Yemen and Iraq that have targeted Saudi Arabia, and as the Houthis move toward the Bab al-Mandab Strait, raising concerns over the Kingdom's security and navigation in the Red Sea.

AFP reported, citing two Houthi military sources, that experts from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps had visited the Bab al-Mandab area, the port and airport of Mokha, and the Jabal al-Nar camp east of the city. The sources said the experts had supervised the digging of tunnels in the mountains overlooking Mokha and the Bab al-Mandab Strait and had discussed installing radars near Mokha and on Zuqar Island in the southern Red Sea.

Analysts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat said the latest developments not only test Tehran's commitment to its pledges, but also put China's role under scrutiny. The issue is no longer limited to maintaining diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but also concerns the agreement's ability to curb sources of indirect threats and prevent armed groups from being used to pressure countries in the region.

Riyadh and Tehran signed an agreement in Beijing under Chinese sponsorship to resume diplomatic relations after a break of nearly seven years.

Bab al-Mandab: A Serious Test for the Agreement

Dr. Abdulaziz bin Sager, Chairman of the Gulf Research Center, said the Beijing Agreement, signed in March 2023, was based on three main components: restoring diplomatic relations after seven years of estrangement, reactivating bilateral cooperation agreements, and respecting the sovereignty of states and noninterference in their internal affairs. He described the third component as "the most important and most sensitive."

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, bin Sager said Iran's actions through the Houthis near the Bab al-Mandab Strait "represent a serious test of the Saudi-Iranian agreement" because they violate both its provisions and its spirit, which was based on building trust. He added that the commitments should not be limited to Iran's direct actions, but should also cover the conduct of groups linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

"There is no meaning to any agreement with Iran that does not cover the actions of its regional proxies that threaten regional and international security," he said, considering support for the Houthis or incitement to threaten the Kingdom's security a "blatant violation" of the commitment to respect sovereignty and refrain from interference.

Abdulaziz Al-Shaibani, a researcher and adviser on Chinese and Asian affairs, takes a different view. He said Iranian actions near the Bab al-Mandab Strait test the Beijing Agreement but do not mean that it has collapsed. The agreement was designed primarily to restore relations and open channels for dialogue, not to end the rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran or establish a strategic partnership between them.

The Proxy Policy

Saudi political analyst Dr. Khalid Al-Habbas said the militia policy is one of Tehran's most important tools for expanding its regional influence. He said the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps supports, trains, and organizes these groups, enabling them to play roles that serve Iranian objectives when needed.

Al-Habbas places the latest Houthi moves, as well as the earlier activities of Iran-aligned factions in Iraq, within the context of growing military and economic pressure on Tehran and its efforts to open alternative fronts of pressure. He said moves toward the Bab al-Mandab Strait could threaten maritime navigation, drive up energy prices, and disrupt supply chains.

Dr. Khalid cautioned against relying on Houthi pledges not to target ships, saying that the experience of the Red Sea since late 2023 has demonstrated otherwise. He stressed that protecting maritime navigation "is an international responsibility, not one that falls on the Kingdom alone," given the global importance of the waterway.

According to Al-Habbas, Saudi Arabia, while remaining committed to resolving disputes peacefully and keeping the door to diplomacy open, has the right to defend itself under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. It also has the right to "demand that Iran comply with the terms of the agreement and review it in light of the extent to which Tehran has honored its commitments."

Has the Testing Period Ended?

Dr. Samir Salha, a professor of international law and international relations at Istanbul University, takes a more forceful position. "We have moved beyond the question of testing the understandings. It is clear that the Iranian side has departed from their spirit and begun pursuing a regional policy different from what it had pledged," he said.

He added that the central question is no longer simply whether Tehran is complying, but who is arming the Houthis, training them, and directing their operations.

"The threats appear Houthi on the surface, but at their core they are Iranian," he said, arguing that the mobilization of Iran-aligned groups in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon reflects an Iranian priority that has not changed despite the restoration of relations with Riyadh.

In Salha's assessment, Saudi Arabia will not base its options solely on waiting for China to act. Instead, it will continue exploring strategic alternatives to ensure its security while keeping the diplomatic track open, a process he said has already begun in recent months.

Beijing: Opening the Way Is Not Enough

The analysts agree that China has significant tools for influencing Iran, given the depth of their economic, political, and military ties. But they say Beijing is being called upon to move from its symbolic role as sponsor of the agreement to a more decisive role in monitoring its implementation.

Bin Sager said Beijing "is capable of verifying Iranian conduct that violates the agreement," but tends to favor ambiguity and avoids taking decisive positions when crises do not directly affect its national security. What is needed now, he said, is a clear mechanism for verifying Tehran's compliance and restraining its proxies.

Salha, meanwhile, said China faces a difficult choice between simply protecting its relationship with Iran and defending its broader interests with the Gulf states and the trade routes that pass through the Red Sea. "This is primarily a test for Iran, but secondarily a test for Beijing," he said.

"Beijing faces a difficult, sensitive, and delicate situation. There have been positive indications in its positions and political messages toward Iran recently, but betting that Tehran will accept and heed what Beijing says is difficult," he added.

Dr. Samir noted that "Beijing succeeded in opening the way for a new test in Saudi-Iranian relations, but it now needs to go further if it wants to protect its interests and relations with the Gulf states."

Al-Shaibani, for his part, said Beijing tends to favor diplomacy and avoid direct intervention, and is not expected to decisively side with either party. He concluded that the future of the agreement will depend on China's ability to keep dialogue open and contain crises, while Saudi Arabia retains the right to protect its security and interests through its own capabilities and regional partnerships.

Arab World

Israeli Forces Raid Town of Suspected Palestinian Gunman

Israeli forces take part in a raid in the Palestinian town of Biddu, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, September 21, 2026. REUTERS/Mohammed Torokman
Israeli forces take part in a raid in the Palestinian town of Biddu, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, September 21, 2026. REUTERS/Mohammed Torokman
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Israeli Forces Raid Town of Suspected Palestinian Gunman

Israeli forces take part in a raid in the Palestinian town of Biddu, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, September 21, 2026. REUTERS/Mohammed Torokman
Israeli forces take part in a raid in the Palestinian town of Biddu, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, September 21, 2026. REUTERS/Mohammed Torokman

Israeli forces on Monday raided the hometown of a Palestinian man suspected of shooting dead an Israeli settler in the occupied West Bank the day before, local authorities said.

Sunday's shooting occurred near the Israeli settlement of Neveh Tzuf, north of Ramallah, on the eve of the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur, with the suspected assailant apprehended by soldiers after being located at a hospital.

Israel's military told AFP on Sunday that its troops had raided the home of the attacker's family in the Palestinian village of Biddu, northwest of Jerusalem in the West Bank.

The Jerusalem Governorate, the Palestinian local authority for the area, said Israeli forces then raided Biddu at dawn on Monday and "carried out a large-scale arrest campaign targeting dozens of young men".

"The raid was accompanied by searches, vandalism, and the smashing of property inside a number of homes, as well as physical assaults on several residents," it said, adding that the raid was ongoing.

When asked by AFP, the Israeli military said it was checking the reports.

An AFP photographer saw Israeli forces in the town on Monday morning.

Biddu's mayor, Nazmi Mansour, told AFP that the military had stormed the town after midnight with "dozens of military jeeps and hundreds of soldiers".

"The soldiers began house-to-house searches and set up field interrogation centers in buildings they had taken control of," he said, adding that dozens of people were questioned.

"The army is still present in the town and has closed off its entrances, and all commercial shops are shut," he told AFP by telephone.

Israel's army chief Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir said at the site of the attack Sunday that the military remained "on high alert".

"We will impose a closure on the village and conduct investigations, through which we will reach everyone who assisted the terrorist," Zamir said.

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called for the attacker to be the first person executed under a recently approved death penalty law.

The new law imposes the death penalty by default on Palestinians from the West Bank convicted on terror charges for deadly attacks.

Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967 and violence there has surged since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel which sparked the Gaza war.

Arab World

Lebanon Seeks UNIFIL Mandate Extension amid Lack of Agreement on Alternative

Jordan’s King Abdullah II, French President Emmanuel Macron and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun pose for a photo before an Aqaba Process meeting in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces at Les Invalides in Paris. (AFP)
Jordan’s King Abdullah II, French President Emmanuel Macron and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun pose for a photo before an Aqaba Process meeting in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces at Les Invalides in Paris. (AFP)
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Lebanon Seeks UNIFIL Mandate Extension amid Lack of Agreement on Alternative

Jordan’s King Abdullah II, French President Emmanuel Macron and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun pose for a photo before an Aqaba Process meeting in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces at Les Invalides in Paris. (AFP)
Jordan’s King Abdullah II, French President Emmanuel Macron and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun pose for a photo before an Aqaba Process meeting in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces at Les Invalides in Paris. (AFP)

Lebanon is intensifying international and Arab diplomatic efforts to avert a security vacuum in the south when the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), tasked by the UN Security Council with implementing Resolution 1701, expires at the end of the year.

President Joseph Aoun raised the issue at a summit with French President Emmanuel Macron and Jordan’s King Abdullah II on the sidelines of a preparatory conference in Paris to support the Lebanese Army and Internal Security Forces.

The matter is also expected to top Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s agenda during his meetings in New York, where he is leading Lebanon’s delegation to the 81st UN General Assembly, and later in Washington, where he is due to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Lebanon is placing importance on peace talks in New York and on a meeting with Rubio to prevent a security vacuum in the south if UNIFIL withdraws, amid a lack of agreement on an international body to replace it.

UNIFIL commander Major General Diodato Abagnara warned of the issue, questioning which authority would take over from the mission, saying that “more than half of our positions in southern Lebanon are under Israeli control.”

A ministerial source said Aoun raised concerns about a potential vacuum during his talks with Macron and King Abdullah.

The source told Asharq Al-Awsat that both leaders shared those concerns and promised to contact US President Donald Trump to seek his approval, at Aoun’s request, for extending UNIFIL’s mandate by six months to a year.

Such an extension, the source added, could help activate the “framework agreement” and expand “pilot zones” where the Lebanese Army could deploy with UNIFIL support.

Macron and King Abdullah are also counting on Trump’s commitment to help Lebanon implement the agreement under UNIFIL supervision or that of any UN force that might replace it, according to the source.

European Union countries understand Lebanon’s concerns and are working to formulate a proposal before the end of October that would preserve an international presence in the south to accompany a phased Israeli withdrawal if efforts to persuade Trump to extend UNIFIL’s mandate fail.

The source stressed that any replacement should operate under UN auspices rather than leave the international presence limited to the US-dominated “Mechanism” committee, from which Washington has excluded France.

A European official was quoted as saying that Lebanon should not be left alone in calling for an international force to replace UNIFIL and that European countries would support efforts to prevent a vacuum, including during meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

Lebanon is also insisting that Israel evacuate the Ali al-Taher hills and hand them over to the Lebanese Army, alongside the establishment of a monitoring post there with a predominantly US presence.

Israel has refused to hand the area to the army and wants the Lebanese request placed on the agenda of an eighth round of negotiations, which Rome would host for a third time. No date has yet been set.

The ministerial source said Washington, as sponsor of the framework agreement, is responsible for setting up the date. The United States is currently pressing Israel to agree to expand the “pilot zones,” he added.

But US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee’s statement that Israeli forces would remain in the south until the Lebanese Army becomes strong offered little grounds for optimism, the source said. Israel has continued targeting areas retaken in the south, preventing the Lebanese Army from deploying there, and has yet to agree to a verification mechanism to ensure areas are free of Hezbollah weapons and fighters.

A Western diplomat said Lebanon’s friends, particularly several European countries, have begun questioning why Trump has not followed through on commitments he made to Aoun during their Washington summit.

Concerns over a possible UN vacuum in the south are expected to feature prominently in Arab and European discussions with Trump and senior US officials.

The diplomat said Lebanon’s allies had little choice but to support Aoun and Salam’s government in strengthening the state’s position vis-à-vis Hezbollah, questioning what the seventh round of negotiations had achieved.

He argued that Lebanon could not afford to postpone implementation of the framework agreement until after Israel’s Knesset elections.

The ministerial source accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of continuing to bulldoze towns and systematically destroy homes on the pretext of eliminating remaining Hezbollah military infrastructure. He said Netanyahu was primarily seeking to push Lebanon into abandoning the negotiations and boycotting the eighth round unless Israeli attacks ceased.

Aoun, however, remains committed to negotiations and will not be drawn into what the source described as Netanyahu’s strategy. In the source’s view, Netanyahu accepted the framework agreement under US pressure but has avoided implementing it ahead of the Israeli elections.

The source also pointed to parliament’s third renewal of confidence in Salam’s government as evidence that a majority of lawmakers remained committed to the framework agreement and to the principle that weapons should be held exclusively by the state.

He nevertheless warned that Lebanon’s worsening cost-of-living crisis could put the government at odds with much of the population unless it finds ways to ease pressure on low-income households — something that would require financial assistance from Arab and international partners.

Hezbollah, meanwhile, continues to insist on retaining its weapons and rejects the framework agreement. The group was surprised by the renewed confidence vote in Salam’s government, particularly after Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Gebran Bassil unexpectedly proposed it at the end of parliament’s questioning of the government.

Hezbollah left the chamber before voting began.

The group has also rejected local and Arab mediation efforts urging it to hand over an initial batch of offensive weapons as long as it stays committed not to respond to Israeli attacks.

The source underlined that such a move would open the way for Hezbollah to join the state project rather than remain isolated, particularly as it bets on an Iranian-US memorandum of understanding whose implementation reached an impasse, compounded by Washington’s refusal to link Lebanon to the Iranian track.