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Arab World

Hamas Likely to Name New Leader from Outside Gaza after Sinwar’s Death

Houthi supporters walk past paintings showing the two late leaders of Hamas Yahya Sinwar (R) and Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian people, one day after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, in Sanaa, Yemen, 18 October 2024. (EPA)
Houthi supporters walk past paintings showing the two late leaders of Hamas Yahya Sinwar (R) and Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian people, one day after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, in Sanaa, Yemen, 18 October 2024. (EPA)
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Hamas Likely to Name New Leader from Outside Gaza after Sinwar’s Death

Houthi supporters walk past paintings showing the two late leaders of Hamas Yahya Sinwar (R) and Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian people, one day after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, in Sanaa, Yemen, 18 October 2024. (EPA)
Houthi supporters walk past paintings showing the two late leaders of Hamas Yahya Sinwar (R) and Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian people, one day after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, in Sanaa, Yemen, 18 October 2024. (EPA)

The Palestinian armed group Hamas will likely replace Yahya Sinwar with a new political leader based outside Gaza while his brother - Mohammad Sinwar - is expected to assume a bigger role directing the war against Israel in the territory, experts say.

Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack that ignited the devastating Gaza war, was killed by Israeli forces in a gunbattle on Wednesday -- the second time in less than three months that Hamas has lost its top leader.

Its previous chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Iran in July almost certainly by Israel.

When Sinwar replaced him, he fused together both the military and political leadership in Gaza, but that does not appear likely this time around.

After more than a year of ferocious Israeli attacks that have pounded Hamas, killed thousands of its fighters and eliminated senior figures both inside and out of Gaza, it is not clear how the group will emerge from this latest blow.

Sinwar's deputy Khalil Al-Hayya, who is viewed as a potential successor, struck a defiant note on Friday, saying Israeli hostages would not be returned until Israeli troops withdrew from Gaza and the war ended.

Hamas has a history of quickly and efficiently replacing its fallen leaders, with its top decision-making body, the Shura Council, tasked with naming a new head.

The Shura Council represents all Hamas members in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Israeli prisons and the Palestinian diaspora, meaning the new leader should have the authority to enter ceasefire talks even if he is not in Gaza, where Hamas gunmen still hold dozens of Israelis hostage.

Besides Hayya, who is Hamas' chief negotiator, the other main leadership contenders are Khaled Meshaal, Haniyeh's predecessor, and Mohammad Darwish, a little-known figure who chairs the Shura Council, according to analysts and a Hamas source.

Hamas will need to notify Qatar, which has played a major role in rounds of so far fruitless ceasefire talks, and other regional capitals ahead of its decision, the source said.

DIVIDING DUTIES

Ashraf Abouelhoul, an expert on Palestinian affairs, expected Sinwar's responsibilities to be split between two roles - one overseeing military affairs and another running the political office, responsible for international contacts and shaping policies.

"Iran is Hamas strongest ally, which supports the group with money and weapons, and their blessing is key to who becomes Sinwar's successor," said Abouelhoul, managing editor of the state-owned newspaper Al-Ahram in Egypt.

He expected Hamas to stick by core demands in future ceasefire talks, chiefly that Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza and stop the war. But it could show more flexibility on some conditions, such as the details of any deal swapping Israeli hostages for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared Sinwar's killing a milestone but that the war is not yet over, saying fighting would continue until the hostages are released.

With Sinwar dead, the Hamas leadership for Gaza has temporarily passed to his Qatar-based deputy, Hayya.

But the ongoing war and communication difficulties might impose limits on just how much day-to-day contact Hayya can have with men on the ground, leaving the armed wing - the Qassam Brigades - in the driving seat, experts say.

A Hamas source said Hayya was expected to encounter no problems exercising his role as "de facto Gaza leader". The source noted that Hayya had maintained good relations with the military wing and had been close to both Sinwar and Haniyeh.

Akram Attallah, a Palestinian political analyst, said he expected the armed wing to respect Hayya's authority - even from afar. He also expected Mohammad Sinwar to emerge as a more significant figure in the armed wing and in Hamas in general.

A veteran commander of the Qassam Brigades, Mohammad Sinwar has seldom appeared in public, has long been on Israel's most-wanted list and has survived several attempts on his life, Hamas sources said.

Hamas-led gunmen killed 1,200 people and abducted another 250 during the Oct. 7 attack, according to Israeli tallies. This prompted an Israeli offensive which, according to Palestinian authorities, has killed more than 42,000 Palestinians, laid waste to Gaza, and driven nearly all its population from their homes.

Sinwar's appointment in August was seen as both a show of defiance and internal unity by Hamas.

His close ties to Iran were seen as a factor supporting his candidacy. Both Darwish and Hayya are also seen as close to Tehran, whose support will be vital for Hamas to recover after the war.

Meanwhile, the prospects of the prominent former Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal have been clouded by a record of friction with Tehran after his support for the revolt in 2011 against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Attallah said Hayya's ties to Iran stood him in better stead than Meshaal. But if Iran softened its opposition to Meshaal, he may have a chance, he said.

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Arab World

Israel, Hezbollah Dash Hopes for ‘Last-Chance’ Ceasefire Deal

The Lebanese and Israeli delegations, along with US State Department representatives, attend the latest round of negotiations in Washington.(AFP)
The Lebanese and Israeli delegations, along with US State Department representatives, attend the latest round of negotiations in Washington.(AFP)
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Israel, Hezbollah Dash Hopes for ‘Last-Chance’ Ceasefire Deal

The Lebanese and Israeli delegations, along with US State Department representatives, attend the latest round of negotiations in Washington.(AFP)
The Lebanese and Israeli delegations, along with US State Department representatives, attend the latest round of negotiations in Washington.(AFP)

Israel and Hezbollah have dashed hopes for a “last chance” ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, with Tel Aviv insisting it will continue military operations until a demilitarized zone is established, and Hezbollah vowing to fight on, calling the deal “a road map to exterminate part of the Lebanese people and enslave the rest.”

Lebanese contacts with domestic and international players are continuing in a bid to rescue the agreement.

The effort to salvage the deal, reached between the Lebanese state and Israel during direct talks in Washington on Wednesday, appeared to show that the crisis is tied to regional developments.

Lebanese ministerial sources said Lebanon had received Hezbollah’s rejection of the agreement from its secretary-general, Naim Qassem, “pending clarity on the Iranian position.” Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who supports a comprehensive ceasefire, remained silent.

Two obstacles appeared to be undercutting the agreement. The first was the failure to secure a comprehensive ceasefire across Lebanon. The second was Israel’s demand for “freedom of movement.”

A third hurdle, Hezbollah’s demand for a clause requiring Israel to withdraw from occupied territory, was eased after the Shiite duo accepted a timetable for withdrawal, starting after the ceasefire takes effect, with the next steps to proceed “step for step.”

A “last chance” agreement

Official Lebanon sees the deal as “the last chance” for a final and comprehensive ceasefire.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said in remarks to reporters that “each party must bear responsibility if it does not respond” to the statement and its provisions, which he described as highly important for Lebanon.

Aoun said that once replies are received from the concerned domestic parties, especially Hezbollah, Lebanon’s position will be relayed to the American side so the next steps can be determined.

Aoun praised the resolve of the Lebanese negotiating team, led by Ambassador Simon Karam, saying Wednesday’s talks were extremely difficult.

Karam, he said, suspended one round of negotiations and refused to move to any other issue before a comprehensive ceasefire was settled.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio then intervened to resume the talks, which ended with Lebanon’s demand for a comprehensive ceasefire being accepted.

Aoun said he remained in contact with international and domestic parties throughout Wednesday and into the early hours of Thursday to secure the comprehensive ceasefire.

He said brotherly and friendly states had helped put pressure on Lebanon’s side, and that US President Donald Trump would be the direct guarantor of the agreement’s implementation.

The deal could take effect 24 hours after Trump is notified of approval and the necessary guarantees are provided.

Israel and Hezbollah respond

The response came quickly. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the army would not stop firing and would remain in the occupied areas “until Hezbollah elements are first removed from the entire area south of the Litani and a demilitarized zone is established.”

He also insisted on freedom of movement, including the right to strike targets in Beirut.

Qassem, for his part, called the agreement “a road map to exterminate part of the Lebanese people and enslave the rest.”

“We are concerned only with stopping the comprehensive aggression, with a ceasefire and Israel’s withdrawal,” he said.

“The ceasefire must be comprehensive. There can be no partition between the south and the rest of Lebanon, and no freedom for the Israeli enemy to kill in Lebanon. As long as the occupation exists, the resistance continues.”

Qassem said Hezbollah had given no one a pledge not to resist or respond to aggression.

“As long as the aggression continues, we will confront it with all the power we have, and we will reach it wherever we decide and are able,” he said.

“As long as our villages are not safe, are bombed and destroyed, and our people are killed, the settlements will not be safe, and they will see our force and severity.”

He said Hezbollah rejected any link between the presence of the resistance, stopping the aggression, and Israel’s withdrawal.

“No one has the right to interfere in Lebanon’s internal affairs among the Lebanese, in organizing their political, economic, and social life, and the decisions they agree on regarding the sovereignty and protection of their country within the national security strategy they agree on,” he said.

Prime minister

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam supports the official negotiating track. Opening a cabinet session, Salam said: “The negotiating path we chose is the fastest and least costly route for Lebanon and the Lebanese, and for the south and its people.”

He said negotiation “was not the only available option, but it was the best option.”

Referring to Aoun’s statement that “the negotiations were not easy, and our delegation faced Israeli intransigence,” Salam said Lebanon’s demands were unchanged.

“What we are demanding in these negotiations is not new,” he said.

“It is what we said from day one, a full Israeli withdrawal from our land, the return of our people to their homes and villages with dignity and safety, armed with our right to our land, the support of our Arab brothers, international support, and American understanding.”

On clearing the area south of the Litani of gunmen and weapons, Salam said, “This is not a condition imposed on us by anyone. This is what Lebanon pledged to the world when it agreed to Resolution 1701 in 2006.”

On the state’s exclusive control of arms across Lebanon, he said, “We have been very late in implementing what was stipulated in the Taif Agreement, which the Lebanese signed, and what was also included in our ministerial statement. We missed the opportunity in 2000 after the Israeli withdrawal, and then after the Syrian withdrawal in 2005. We must not miss this opportunity as well, because missing it this time will have grave consequences.”

Salam urged “all parties to place the interest of Lebanon and its people above any other interest, whether foreign or factional, and to bear their responsibilities.”

“Whoever rejects or stalls will alone bear the burden of what may result from that, before history, and more importantly before the Lebanese people, who have suffered greatly and made the greatest sacrifices,” he said.

Arab World

Why Lebanon, Israel Chose Beaufort Castle as Pilot Zone

Smoke rises near the Beaufort Castle, as seen from Marjayoun, southern Lebanon, May 29, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer
Smoke rises near the Beaufort Castle, as seen from Marjayoun, southern Lebanon, May 29, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer
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Why Lebanon, Israel Chose Beaufort Castle as Pilot Zone

Smoke rises near the Beaufort Castle, as seen from Marjayoun, southern Lebanon, May 29, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer
Smoke rises near the Beaufort Castle, as seen from Marjayoun, southern Lebanon, May 29, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer

The ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel provides for the creation of “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon, where the Lebanese army would assume exclusive control and ensure Hezbollah fighters are not present, in return for an Israeli military withdrawal from those areas.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said Beirut had proposed that the plan begin in the towns of Zawtar al-Sharqiya and Zawtar al-Gharbiya, along with Yohmor and Beaufort Castle, “given the symbolism of this area and its proximity to the city of Nabatieh.”

The zone carries strategic weight for both sides, security sources in southern Lebanon told Asharq Al-Awsat.

For Israel, it would be a test of security for northern towns and settlements. For Lebanon, it would push the Israeli army away from the surrounding areas of Nabatieh.

Israeli forces advanced last week in the area north of the Litani River, taking control of large parts of Zawtar al-Sharqiya and Yohmor.

By Sunday, they had reached the strategic historic site of Beaufort Castle before coming under Hezbollah fire from rockets and explosive drones, according to successive statements by the group. The security sources said Israeli forces carried out demolitions in parts of Yohmor and Zawtar, but did not establish a military position in the area.

The heights are among the most important military and geopolitical points in southern Lebanon. They overlook the Litani River, towns along its eastern bank, the Nabatieh to Marjayoun road to the east, Nabatieh and its suburbs to the west, and towns on both sides of Wadi al-Hujeir to the south.

For Israel, the elevated area forms a key security depth because it overlooks occupied areas in southern Lebanon and northern towns. It lies just 4 kilometers from the settlement of Metula.

Beaufort Castle has long been a focal point of fighting since the 1982 invasion. From the west, it overlooks the area between the Litani and Zahrani rivers and is the highest hill in that sector.

That position gives its holder a major military advantage. From Beaufort Castle and Yohmor, it is possible to overlook Taybeh, Deir Seryan, and Qantara, where the Israeli army is now deployed.

For that reason, “it cannot leave it outside its control, or without security arrangements, if it wants to remain in the area where it is stationed.”

For Lebanon, an Israeli withdrawal from the high ground is a priority for allowing residents to return to Nabatieh and its surroundings. The area overlooks territory to its west as far as the sea, meaning that an Israeli military presence there would leave nearby towns, as well as Nabatieh, exposed to strikes.

The city lies between 3 and 5 kilometers from Beaufort Castle, Yohmor, and Zawtar.

Sources in southern Lebanon say an agreement on the pilot zone would mean the area is demilitarized and falls under the control of the Lebanese army alone.

If the plan succeeds, it could gradually expand to other areas, including zones north of the yellow line in Majdal Zoun and Zebqine in the western sector, towns overlooking Wadi al-Slouqi in the central sector, or those overlooking Wadi al-Hujeir in the eastern sector.

Arab World

Hezbollah Rejects Latest Ceasefire Agreement as Israeli Strikes Kill 4 in Lebanon

Destroyed buildings resulting from Israeli shelling on Beirut's Southern Suburb, where a Hezbollah flag is raised (EPA)
Destroyed buildings resulting from Israeli shelling on Beirut's Southern Suburb, where a Hezbollah flag is raised (EPA)
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Hezbollah Rejects Latest Ceasefire Agreement as Israeli Strikes Kill 4 in Lebanon

Destroyed buildings resulting from Israeli shelling on Beirut's Southern Suburb, where a Hezbollah flag is raised (EPA)
Destroyed buildings resulting from Israeli shelling on Beirut's Southern Suburb, where a Hezbollah flag is raised (EPA)

Hezbollah on Thursday rejected the latest ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and the Lebanese government, and the militant group demanded a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as continued fighting there hampered moves to end the Iran war.

The Hezbollah announcement came as Israeli strikes killed at least four people, according to local authorities, and a UN peacekeeper was killed in the crossfire.

Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem, in a written statement read on TV, called the negotiations “absurd, humiliating, and insulting.” He said the agreement’s demand that Hezbollah fighters leave southern Lebanon under fire would mean “surrender, defeat and achieving the enemy’s goals.”

“What we are concerned about is an end to the aggression, ceasefire and Israel’s withdrawal,” he said, underscoring that Hezbollah had not made any commitment to stop fighting. “So long as our villages are not safe and are being bombed and destroyed and our people are killed," he said, northern Israel “will not be safe.”

The fighting in Lebanon, where Israeli forces have seized large swaths of the south, threatens efforts to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit point for oil and gas. Its closure has jolted the world economy.

Iran has demanded that any lasting truce extend to Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces elections later this year, wants to press ahead with Israel’s offensive until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat.

US President Donald Trump, who faced a rare rebuke from Congress on Wednesday, has sought to downplay the diplomatic deadlock and the failure of declared ceasefires to end the fighting. He told reporters that in the Middle East, "a ceasefire is when you’re shooting in a more moderate manner.”

Peacekeeper killed in crossfire A Serbian peacekeeper was killed and two others were wounded when a mortar struck their location near Marjayoun, a Christian-majority town that has seen intense fighting, according to the UN mission, known as UNIFIL, and Serbia's Defense Ministry.

Israel later blamed Hezbollah for the firing that killed the UN peacekeeper, without offering evidence. Hezbollah and the UN did not immediately comment on who launched the shells, according to The AP news.

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said a drone strike killed a motorcyclist and wounded four people in the village of Maaroub. It said airstrikes on the village of Sohmor in the Bekaa Valley, in eastern Lebanon, killed three people and wounded others. It also reported airstrikes elsewhere in the south.

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military, which has warned people not to go into parts of southern Lebanon where it says it is striking Hezbollah facilities.

Fighting has raged despite declared ceasefires Hezbollah resumed rocket fire days after Israel and the United States launched their surprise Feb. 28 attack on Iran, which backs Hezbollah. Before then, Israel had regularly carried out strikes in Lebanon against what it said were militant targets, often killing civilians, despite an earlier truce reached in 2024.

Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the Israeli military’s chief of staff, acknowledged Thursday that the ongoing war was straining northern Israeli towns living under the threat of Hezbollah fire. He said Israel's operations in Iran and Lebanon had “created a new security reality,” by weaking Iran and Hezbollah “to an unprecedented degree.”

After Hezbollah's rocket and drone attacks resumed, Israeli troops seized around a fifth of Lebanon, pushing further into the country's south than at any time since the end of Israel’s 1982-2000 occupation.

In the southern city of Sidon, residents reacted to Wednesday's ceasefire announcement with skepticism, saying previous agreements had failed to stop the violence.

“Every few days a ceasefire is announced, but people keep getting killed,” said Mayada Hijazi.

“It’s all talk and no action,” said Salah Nassab. “We keep going back to our homes, and then we get displaced again, back and forth. We’re very tired."

More than 3,500 people have been killed in Lebanon, and over 1.2 million have been displaced. The fighting has killed 27 Israeli soldiers and three civilians.

The ceasefire came from ongoing Israeli-Lebanese talks The latest declared ceasefire came about through US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon's government, which accuses Hezbollah of dragging the country into war and had made efforts to disarm it before the latest hostilities.

The ceasefire agreement calls for Lebanon's armed forces to take control of security zones in Lebanon from which the militants would be banned.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Thursday called the new agreement "the last chance to enter a final and comprehensive ceasefire.” He said Lebanon was ready to implement Wednesday's deal once he receives responses from relevant factions in Lebanon, including Hezbollah. The United States — and Trump himself — would determine how and when the deal is implemented, Aoun told journalists on Thursday.

The agreement terms Hezbollah “an enemy" of Israel, the US and Lebanon and calls for dismantling it. The government has promised to do so in the past but does not have the capabilities to disarm Hezbollah by force.

The latest agreement did not say when Israel would withdraw from southern Lebanon but said the US would support the Lebanese army as it works to assert control in areas where Hezbollah has long wielded power.