Will Rising Israeli Losses in War on Hezbollah Lead it to Agree to a Ceasefire?

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)
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Will Rising Israeli Losses in War on Hezbollah Lead it to Agree to a Ceasefire?

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)

A prevailing impression is growing in Lebanon that the only way for Israel to end its war on Hezbollah is when its losses on the ground become too great for it to ignore.

Israel is incurring deaths in the South on a nearly daily basis as the war approaches the one-month mark.

Observers are in agreement that the battle is difficult for both Israel and Hezbollah, raising questions about whether Israel was prepared for the number of losses.

Founder and CEO of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) Riad Kahwaji wondered: “Are the Israeli losses expected or acceptable and withing reason? Only time will tell.”

“If the battle goes on for more weeks, then it is evidence that it was expected; if it stops within days, it means that the losses exceeded their expectations and they will have to reconsider their options,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He noted that Israel is losing four to five soldiers on a daily basis.

The fighting will likely go on as diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire continue.

Israel doesn’t always reveal the number of its casualties, but estimates have said they reached 40 in recent days. Hezbollah, on the other hand, stopped declaring the death of its fighters last month.

The Iran-backed party’s casualties had reached 508 in the latest tally. Estimates today believe the figure to have reached a thousand.

Israeli media on Sunday reported that 22 soldiers and officers were killed in fighting in Gaza and southern Lebanon last week. The Israeli army announced the death of one soldier on Sunday and four on Saturday in the South. Israeli media said 88 soldiers were wounded in the past 48 hours of fighting.

Kahwaji said the ground battles are a normal part of the war and Hezbollah is very prepared for them. It has dug tunnels and built fortifications and knows the terrain very well, so the Israeli army is inevitably going to incur losses and Israeli military officials have acknowledged the difficulty of the battle.

Kahwaji highlighted Hezbollah’s decision to stop declaring its losses since the pager attack last month.

“Since then, we no longer hear anything about the party’s losses. The Israeli army, however, cannot hide its casualties,” he remarked.



Baby Freezes to Death Overnight in Gaza as Israel, Hamas Trade Accusations of Ceasefire Delays

Hundreds of displaced people are experiencing a shortage of blankets and warm clothing, little wood for fires and tents have grown increasingly threadbare over months of heavy use, according to aid workers and residents. (AP video shot by Mohammad Jahjouh; Production by Wafaa Shurafa)
Hundreds of displaced people are experiencing a shortage of blankets and warm clothing, little wood for fires and tents have grown increasingly threadbare over months of heavy use, according to aid workers and residents. (AP video shot by Mohammad Jahjouh; Production by Wafaa Shurafa)
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Baby Freezes to Death Overnight in Gaza as Israel, Hamas Trade Accusations of Ceasefire Delays

Hundreds of displaced people are experiencing a shortage of blankets and warm clothing, little wood for fires and tents have grown increasingly threadbare over months of heavy use, according to aid workers and residents. (AP video shot by Mohammad Jahjouh; Production by Wafaa Shurafa)
Hundreds of displaced people are experiencing a shortage of blankets and warm clothing, little wood for fires and tents have grown increasingly threadbare over months of heavy use, according to aid workers and residents. (AP video shot by Mohammad Jahjouh; Production by Wafaa Shurafa)

A baby girl froze to death overnight in Gaza, while Israel and Hamas accused each other of complicating ceasefire efforts that could wind down the 14-month war.

The 3-week old baby was the third to die from the cold in Gaza's tent camps in recent days, doctors said, deaths that underscore the squalid conditions, with hundreds of thousands of Palestinians crammed into often ramshackle tents after fleeing Israeli offensives.

Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion of Gaza has killed over 45,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

The offensive has caused widespread destruction and displaced some 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people, often multiple times. Hundreds of thousands are packed into tent camps along the coast as the cold, wet winter sets in. Aid groups have struggled to deliver food and supplies and say there are shortages of blankets, warm clothing and firewood, The AP reported.

Israel has increased the amount of aid it allows into the territory, reaching an average of 130 trucks a day so far this month, up from around 70 a day in October and November. Still, the amount remains well below than previous months and the United Nations says it is unable to distribute more than half the aid because Israeli forces deny permission to move within Gaza or because of rampant lawlessness and theft from trucks.

The father of 3-week-old Sila, Mahmoud al-Faseeh, wrapped her in a blanket to try and keep her warm in their tent in the Muwasi area outside the town of Khan Younis, but it wasn't enough, he told The Associated Press.

He said the tent was not sealed from the wind and the ground was cold, as temperatures on Tuesday night dropped to 9 degrees Celsius (48 degrees Fahrenheit.) Muwasi is a desolate area of dunes and farmland on Gaza’s Mediterranean coast.

“It was very cold overnight and as adults we couldn’t even take it. We couldn’t stay warm,” he said. Sila woke up crying three times overnight and in the morning they found her unresponsive, her body stiff.

“She was like wood,” said al-Faseeh. They rushed her to a field hospital where doctors tried to revive her, but her lungs had already deteriorated. Images of Sila taken by the AP showed the little girl with purple lips, her pale skin blotchy.

Ahmed al-Farra, director of the children’s ward at Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, confirmed that the baby died of hypothermia. He said two other babies — one 3 days old, the other a month old — had been brought to the hospital over the past 48 hours after dying of hypothermia.

Meanwhile, hopes for a ceasefire looked complicated Wednesday, with Israel and the militant Hamas group that runs Gaza trading accusations of delaying an agreement. In recent weeks, the two sides appeared to be inching toward a deal that would bring home dozens of hostages held by the militants in Gaza, but differences have emerged.

Although Israel and Hamas have expressed optimism that progress was being made toward a deal, sticking points remain over the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, people involved in the talks say.

On Wednesday, Hamas accused Israel of introducing new conditions related to the withdrawal from Gaza, the prisoners and the return of displaced people, which it said was delaying the deal.

Israel's government accused Hamas of reneging on understandings that have already been reached.” Still, both sides said discussions are ongoing.

Israel’s negotiating team, which includes members from its intelligence agencies and the military, returned from Qatar on Tuesday evening for internal consultations, following a week of what it called “significant negotiations."

During its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, Hamas and other groups took about 250 people hostages and brought them to Gaza. A previous truce in November 2023 freed more than 100 hostages, while others have been rescued or their remains have been recovered over the past year.

Israel says about 100 hostages remain in Gaza — at least a third whom it believes were killed during the Oct. 7 attack or died in captivity.

Sporadic talks have taken place for a year, but in recent weeks there's been a renewed push to reach a deal.

President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office next month for his second term, has demanded the immediate release of Israeli hostages, saying on social media that if they're not freed before he is sworn in, there will be “HELL TO PAY.”

Families of the hostages are becoming increasingly angry, calling on the Israeli government for a ceasefire before Trump is sworn in.

After Israel’s high-level negotiation team returned from Doha this week, hostage families called an emergency press conference in Tel Aviv, Israel, pleading for a ceasefire and a complete end to the war.

Shir Siegel, the daughter of Israeli-American Keith Siegel, whose mother was released after more than 50 days in captivity, said every delay could endanger their lives. “There are moments when every second is fateful, and this is one of those moments,” she said.

Families of the hostages marked the first night of Hannukah with a candle lighting ceremony in Tel Aviv as well as by the Western Wall in Jerusalem.

The agreement would take effect in phases and include a halt in fighting, an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and a surge in aid to the besieged Gaza, according to Egyptian, Hamas and American officials. The last phase would include the release of any remaining hostages, an end to the war and talks on reconstruction.