Locked in Mideast Wars and Battered by Sanctions, Iran is Wary over US Presidential Election

File photo: Iranian lawmakers concerned about gasoline price hike (AFP)

America's presidential election next week comes just after Iran marks the 45th anniversary of the 1979 US Embassy hostage crisis — and for many, tensions between Tehran and Washington feel just as high as they did then.
Iran remains locked in the Mideast wars roiling the region, with its allies — militant groups and fighters of its self-described “Axis of Resistance” — battered as Israel presses its war in the Gaza Strip targeting Hamas and its invasion of Lebanon amid devastating attacks against Hezbollah. At the same time, Iran still appears to be assessing damage from Israel's strikes on the Iran last Saturday in response to two Iranian ballistic missile attacks.
Iran's currency, the rial, hovers near record lows against the dollar, battered by international sanctions over Tehran's nuclear program of enriching uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels.
In public spaces, women still openly defy Iran's mandatory law on the headscarf, or hijab, a result of the mass demonstrations over the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini that still haunts the country.
That has left a feel of fatalism among some on the streets of the capital, Tehran, as Americans cast ballots for either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. Many are split on which candidate would be better for their country — if at all.
“All US presidents elected after the (1979) revolution had the same views about Iran and I think that’s unlikely to change," said Sadegh Rabbani, 65.
Harris and Trump have offered hard-line views on Iran, making Iranians wary. Both candidates have either undertaken or expressed tough stances on Iran.
In 2018, Trump unilaterally pulled America out of Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers, setting off years of attacks across the Middle East even before Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Trump has been briefed on Iranian plots to retaliate against him, as well over his decision to launch a 2020 drone strike that killed Iran's top general, Qassem Soleimani, in Baghdad.
Harris, meanwhile, vowed at the September presidential debate that she would always “give Israel the ability to defend itself, in particular as it relates to Iran and any threat that Iran and its proxies pose to Israel.”
For its part, the Biden administration did try indirect negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program that produced no tangible results, though it did reach one prisoner swap deal that saw five Americans detained for years in Iran walk free in September 2023.
In an outdoor coffeeshop in downtown Tehran, popular among the youth, 22-year-old Zahra Rezaei said she preferred a Harris win.
“We saw Trump in the past and he just ran an anti-Iran policy,” Rezaei told The Associated Press. "It is time for a woman ... I think she (Harris) will better since she is not after war.”
Ebrahim Shiri, a 28-year-old postgraduate political sciences student, agreed.
“I think Harris knows the world better," he said. “She and (Joe) Biden convinced Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. This means moving toward peace.”
Others believe Trump, with his promises of dealmaking, might be a better fit.
“I do not know what the American people think, but Trump is able to get a quick deal with Iran,“ said Mohammad Ali Raoufi, 43, who runs a double-glazed window workshop. “The Biden administration including Harris failed to reach any (deal) with Iran over the past years when they were in power.”
Reza Ghaemi, a 31-year-old taxi driver, also suggested Trump may lessen tensions in the region since he pushed to withdraw US troops from the Mideast during his term in office.
Iran's government wants sanctions gone and hopes for another nuclear deal Many declined to speak to the AP on camera — Iran has only state-run television and radio stations, so people are suspicious of reporters with video cameras working openly on the street. A woman walking by immediately tightened her previously loose headscarf after seeing the camera.
Those who did speak to the AP mostly expressed worries about a direct United States-Iran war — especially if Trump wins.
While saying he wants Trump to win “for my own reasons,” 53-year-old Ahmad Moradi claimed that would make a US-Iran war "100%” sure to happen.
A woman who only gave her name as Mahnaz, fearing repercussions for speaking openly, suggested that Harris, as a woman, couldn’t reach any deals with Iran because “men can talk to men.”
“I think if Trump is elected, it will be much harder for our kids. Of course it doesn’t matter which one is elected, it’s already tough for us,” said Fariba Oodi.
“We the Iranian people are trapped in some political game. And our kids are paying a price for that," she added. "But I still think if it’s Trump, it will be more difficult, especially for my son who is a student and plans to apply” to study in America.
Iran's reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected after a helicopter crash killed hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi in May, came to power on a promise to reach a deal to ease Western sanctions.
Iranian officials maintain that separating nuclear negotiations from Mideast wars is possible, even as the US has accused Iran of meddling in the November election, which Tehran denies.
Fatemeh Mohajerani, a spokeswoman for Pezeshkian's administration, said Tehran wants to see a change in US policies and a respect for the “national sovereignty of other countries.” It also wants Washington to "avoid tension-making activities as we witnessed in recent years,” she said.
Analysts, however, see a difficult road ahead for any possible US-Iran talks, no matter who wins next Tuesday.
“The talks will be a war of attrition,” Ali Soufi told the pro-reform Shargh newspaper. Saeed Nourmohammadi, another analyst, suggested such talks “are unlikely to be fruitful.”
But ultimately, any decision rests with Iran's 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
“You know, Khamenei has seen eight US presidents" come and go, said Abbas Ghasemi, a 67-year-old retired teacher "He knows how to deal with the next one.”