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Israel Pessimistic about Ceasefire Deal with Lebanon

Damage caused by Israeli raids in Lebanon. (AP)
Damage caused by Israeli raids in Lebanon. (AP)
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Israel Pessimistic about Ceasefire Deal with Lebanon

Damage caused by Israeli raids in Lebanon. (AP)
Damage caused by Israeli raids in Lebanon. (AP)

The United States' special envoy for the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, decided to extend his visit to Beirut until Wednesday, political sources in Tel Aviv said. The envoy, who was expected in Israel on Wednesday morning, will arrive there by Thursday at the latest.

Despite the positive signals from Washington about Hochstein’s visit to the Lebanese capital, Israelis cast doubt on the likelihood that a deal could be reached to end the war on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The sources said US officials are very serious about reaching a possible ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war. “Coordination is ongoing between the administration of President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, who are both determined to end the war,” the sources stressed.

As evidence, they said, Washington has decided to place a US general at the head of a military technical committee tasked to achieve the total deployment of the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon.

However, Israel is skeptical. It believes Hezbollah is maneuvering and will not accept the Israeli terms of the US proposal.

The sources said the Israeli army is indirectly taking part in the Hochstein-led negotiations by exerting pressure on Lebanon and intensifying its attacks on the capital, not just its southern suburbs where Hezbollah has a strong presence, as well as the South and eastern Bekaa region.

Former head of Israeli Defense Intelligence Professor Amos Yadlin, who held a meeting with Hochstein recently, revealed that the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon is making great progress.

He said a deal could be announced this weekend. “The most important thing is that the agreement between Israel and Washington on the US guarantees is ready. If an agreement is reached in Beirut on those guarantees, a ceasefire deal will be signed and put into effect,” Yadlin said.

Biden sent a message to Israel that the US administration will not only serve as a guarantor to Israel, but it has also given it legitimacy in its right to self-defense, he revealed.

“In Washington, they agree with us that Israel has cancelled its known MABAM doctrine (the ‘war between the wars’), and is now ready to wage a war whenever it is attacked. Hochstein and other mutual friends of Israel and Lebanon have made this clear, but this policy has to be understood in Lebanon, Syria and Iran,” he added.

Meanwhile, the majority of officials close to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain pessimistic about reaching a ceasefire deal with Lebanon.

The right-wing newspaper Israel Hayom quoted an Israeli political source as saying that “an agreement is not likely to be reached in the near future.”

Instead, it said, the Israeli military has approved plans to attack the southern suburbs of Beirut, carry out assassinations wherever possible, even in the majority-Christian part of east Beirut and continue to target Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.

On Tuesday, Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right minister of finance, said, “We will not agree to any arrangement that is not worth the paper it is written on.”

Addressing the ceasefire efforts, Netanyahu told a Knesset meeting that “the important thing is not the piece of paper.”

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Arab World

Houthi Escalation Drives Up Casualties, Threatens Widespread Humanitarian Collapse

The total number of casualties from the escalation through the end of October reached 9,730, including 7,959 injuries and 1,771 deaths. (Local media)
The total number of casualties from the escalation through the end of October reached 9,730, including 7,959 injuries and 1,771 deaths. (Local media)
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Houthi Escalation Drives Up Casualties, Threatens Widespread Humanitarian Collapse

The total number of casualties from the escalation through the end of October reached 9,730, including 7,959 injuries and 1,771 deaths. (Local media)
The total number of casualties from the escalation through the end of October reached 9,730, including 7,959 injuries and 1,771 deaths. (Local media)

Local and international medical organizations in Yemen reported a sharp rise in daily casualties from the Houthi military escalation, to 132 from about 93 last week, with the Lahj governorate the hardest hit as fighting persisted and the Houthis targeted populated areas with missiles and drones.

The latest Health Cluster report put the total number of casualties recorded by the health emergency operations center through the end of October at 9,730, including 7,959 injuries and 1,771 deaths, an increase of 658 in just five days.

The southwestern province of Lahj accounted for 309 casualties, or 47% of the new cases. Marib recorded the highest fatality rate, with 36 deaths among 172 casualties, or 21%. Of those, 117 casualties, including 20 deaths, were reported on Oct. 30 alone in Al-Jubah and Harib districts and along the Al-Jawf front.

The Health Cluster, which comprises 31 health sectors, warned of deteriorating services along Yemen's western coast. All three partner-supported health facilities in Al-Waziyah district had stopped operating, while access restrictions prevented the collection of October data in Dhubab district.

The deterioration came as the number of displaced people exceeded 320,000, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), with most of the displacement occurring over the past two months.

Yemenis displaced by Houthi attacks in Taiz gather to receive aid on the outskirts of Aden. (AP)

Diseases

Some 43,000 people have been displaced from Lahj's Al-Mudarabah and Al-Arah district since the start of last year, while the interim capital Aden currently hosts more than 56,000 displaced people. Prices of essential goods in Taiz have risen threefold to fivefold.

The report identified 28 new or reopened displacement sites sheltering 21,273 people without dedicated site management or humanitarian oversight. Another 105 sites, housing 74,456 people, were recorded in western Taiz districts that came under Houthi control during the same month.

The humanitarian response faces severe shortages. The World Health Organization (WHO) is funding just nine mobile medical teams against a target of 30 to 40, and four fixed health centers against a target of 25 to 35.

The report also highlighted an urgent need to coordinate with the Executive Unit for the Management of IDPs Camps to identify suitable locations for delivering services.

Cholera cases continued to fall across the five worst-affected provinces, dropping from 639 in epidemiological week 40 to 443 in week 43. Data for week 44, however, remained 23% incomplete.

The WHO consequently identified 23 districts with a combined population of 2.25 million as priorities for requesting a single dose of oral cholera vaccine from the International Coordinating Group.

Cholera cases continued to fall across the five worst-affected provinces. (UN)

Healthcare gaps

Restrictions have disrupted aid deliveries, forcing the cancellation of air bridge flights to Sanaa scheduled for Oct. 29 and Nov. 3.

The WHO's second pilot medical shipment, weighing 10 metric tons, also remains on hold pending coordination with the World Food Program for transport to Taiz.

The disruptions come amid a severe funding shortfall. Just 12% of the 90-day humanitarian response plan has been funded, with the WHO receiving $3.7 million of the $31 million required, leaving a $27.3 million gap.

Even if an additional $7.3 million under discussion with European donors and the Central Emergency Response Fund is approved, 65% of the plan would remain unfunded, threatening the response beyond year-end.

The report identified four critical, unfunded gaps in the care of injured patients: patient referral systems, a Level 2 surgical facility, expanded intensive care capacity, including fuel for 77 health facilities, and post-discharge rehabilitation services.

Without post-discharge rehabilitation, patients cannot be safely released from surgical wards, leaving beds occupied, reducing hospital capacity and preventing new patients from receiving treatment.

Arab World

Iraq Braces for Possible US-Iran War with Emergency Military, Civilian Plans

A rocket is launched by an Iraqi faction. (Popular Mobilization Forces)
A rocket is launched by an Iraqi faction. (Popular Mobilization Forces)
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Iraq Braces for Possible US-Iran War with Emergency Military, Civilian Plans

A rocket is launched by an Iraqi faction. (Popular Mobilization Forces)
A rocket is launched by an Iraqi faction. (Popular Mobilization Forces)

Iraq has drawn up sweeping contingency plans for a possible military conflict between Washington and Tehran, deploying troops to border cities and giving commanders authority to respond to armed violations without seeking approval from the commander-in-chief, officials said on Friday.

The preparations also include possible shifts to remote learning and measures to accommodate people fleeing conflict zones.

Signs of imminent US strikes on Iran have mounted this week, fueling fears in Baghdad that Shiite armed factions could join the fighting on Tehran's side after updating their list of potential targets.

Borders under watch

A senior security official told Asharq Al-Awsat that Iraq had tightened surveillance of border cities on orders from the commander-in-chief, stepping up field monitoring and round-the-clock assessments of unusual movements.

The measures cover the Iranian border from Sulaymaniyah in Iraqi Kurdistan in the north to Basra in the south, near Kuwait and Iran, as well as army deployments along the Syrian border, said the official, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

Military commanders are paying particular attention to Basra amid fears that armed factions could operate in strategically sensitive locations with regional significance, the official said.

Another official, who attended a high-level meeting on the potential fallout from war last week, said Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi had granted army commanders exceptional powers to confront armed violations by outlaw groups immediately, without referring decisions to him.

The commanders now have "exceptional powers to deter armed groups," the official said.

A military patrol in Kirkuk city on Friday. (Iraqi police)

Remote learning

Beyond military precautions, Iraq's Ministerial Council for National Security has discussed emergency measures that could see schools switch to remote learning, sensitive public-sector records moved and digitally preserved, and preparations made for an influx of people fleeing the fighting, a civilian official familiar with the discussions said.

The council, chaired by al-Zaidi as commander-in-chief, includes the national security adviser and the ministers of interior, defense, foreign affairs, finance and planning.

A government source, however, told Asharq Al-Awsat it was too early to decide on changes to schooling or government working arrangements.

The government first drew up emergency plans in March, when the war erupted following the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and has updated them regularly as circumstances changed, the source said.

Revolutionary Guards update target lists

But political officials speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat this week described an "unprecedented" level of alarm over reports that armed factions had updated their lists of targets on orders from Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps.

On Wednesday, Iran's Tasnim news agency quoted Esmail Qaani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, as saying resistance leaders had received a message from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei urging them to "confront the enemy without limits."

They had begun turning that message into action by issuing a written declaration of full allegiance, Qaani said.

One Iraqi official warned that al-Zaidi "could find himself heading the government of a country hostile to the United States if the factions enter the war this time."

US presidential envoy to Iraq Tom Barrack, in a statement after meeting al-Zaidi on Thursday evening, said the prime minister faced the toughest task of all: containing crises before they escalated.

Al-Zaidi, meanwhile, reaffirmed after a phone call with US President Donald Trump the same day that Iraq would not allow its territory to be used to attack neighboring countries.

Kurdish sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Barrack was expected to brief officials in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah on Friday evening on the latest developments in the Iran crisis and the prospect of renewed military confrontation.

Head of Iraq's Supreme Judicial Council Judge Faiq Zidan meets with US envoy Tom Brack in Baghdad on Thursday. (Government media)

Ruling alliance fears fallout

Al-Zaidi has also briefed Iraq's ruling alliance on his preparations for possible US strikes.

A political source familiar with the discussions said the prime minister warned the Coordination Framework, which includes the country's leading Shiite political forces, that a US military operation against Iran could be imminent.

He also raised concerns that Iran-aligned factions with ties to parties in the alliance could launch deterrent operations on Tehran's orders.

Al-Zaidi hopes the ruling parties can restrain those groups, the source said, although some within the alliance fear an Iranian defeat could threaten their own political survival.

Kataib Hezbollah faces scrutiny over business interests

The war preparations come amid a stream of reports about the business activities of armed factions, as Baghdad faces mounting pressure to stop the groups from attacking neighboring countries.

Activists known to be close to the factions have circulated details of business networks and companies run by, or linked to, faction leaders and their relatives.

The reports, which are difficult to verify and focus particularly on Kataib Hezbollah, have stirred debate over whether influential actors are trying to undermine the factions' legitimacy by exposing their financial ambitions.

The scrutiny comes as the factions, which have long presented themselves as champions of resistance in Iraq, appear poised to join a military confrontation alongside Iran.

Arab World

Houthi Ballistic Missile Attack Leaves Civilian Casualties in Taiz

Yemeni fighters sit on a pick-up truck mounted with a heavy machine-gun as they hold a position during clashes with Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen's northwestern Al-Jawf province on November 2, 2026. (AFP)
Yemeni fighters sit on a pick-up truck mounted with a heavy machine-gun as they hold a position during clashes with Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen's northwestern Al-Jawf province on November 2, 2026. (AFP)
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Houthi Ballistic Missile Attack Leaves Civilian Casualties in Taiz

Yemeni fighters sit on a pick-up truck mounted with a heavy machine-gun as they hold a position during clashes with Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen's northwestern Al-Jawf province on November 2, 2026. (AFP)
Yemeni fighters sit on a pick-up truck mounted with a heavy machine-gun as they hold a position during clashes with Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen's northwestern Al-Jawf province on November 2, 2026. (AFP)

Operation Dawn of Yemen has entered its second month, backed by presidential assurances that offensives will persist until state institutions are fully restored.

Meanwhile, a Houthi ballistic missile strike caused multiple deaths and injuries in Taiz, drawing immediate condemnation from the Yemeni government, which labeled the attack a "war crime."

The broader military confrontation has shifted into a volatile new phase of escalation as heavy fighting expands between government forces and the Houthis across the Taiz, Lahj, Marib, and Al-Jawf governorates. The widening conflict has heightened international concern for civilian safety and the security of vital shipping lanes in the Red Sea.

Chairman of Presidential Leadership Council Dr. Rashad Al-Alimi stressed in a council statement on Thursday that military operations will continue until their declared objectives are achieved, chief among them ending the Houthi coup, restoring state institutions, and extending state authority over the entirety of Yemeni territory.

The council said that since October 5, the armed forces have conducted more than 40,000 military targeting operations across various fronts. According to its tally, these operations resulted in neutralizing around 20,000 of the Houthi leaders and members, as well as destroying and disabling more than 5,000 military vehicles and pieces of equipment.

These figures reflect the vast scale of military operations conducted during the first month, while fighting continues across multiple axes, it added.

Several battles

On the ground, government forces recaptured key military positions in the Al-Sarari area and the Sanamat area of Al-Misrakh district in southwest Taiz governorate.

The field advances were achieved during offensive operations launched with the support of the Popular Resistance. The ground maneuvers coincided with a series of airstrikes and drone strikes targeting Houthi positions, troop gatherings, and combat vehicles.

Local sources said warplanes carried out a wave of airstrikes at dawn on Friday, hitting Houthi concentrations, fortifications, and hardware across the Hayfan district and the vicinity of Al-Turbah city. An official casualty and equipment damage toll from the aerial strikes has not yet been disclosed.

Numerous areas across Lahj governorate witnessed fierce fighting, which were concentrated on the frontlines of the Al-Zuraiqah region.

Military sources revealed that the Houthis executed a flanking attack targeting five positions, before defending forces, supported by the resistance, managed to recapture two of them.

Meanwhile, fighting continued in the Al-Madaribah district and the Kahboub mountains overlooking the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The fighting in Al-Zuraiqah resulted in the killing of 11 personnel from the joint forces and the injury of 23 others, according to an initial field toll. Casualty figures among the Houthis remained unknown, while fighting continued along with the arrival of military reinforcements from both sides.

The escalation expanded to the Marib and Al-Jawf governorates, where government forces announced advances across the Al-Dahidha heights and the Huwayshan mountains in eastern Al-Jawf.

Troops seized control of several positions, fortifications, and weapons during operations aimed at clearing the route toward the city of Al-Hazm.

Another massacre in Al-Waziyah

On the west coast, the Yemeni government's announcement that the Houthis used a United Nations building in the Al-Mokha district as a military operations center and a missile launchpad has triggered fresh concerns regarding the safety of humanitarian facilities and UN personnel.

The Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation warned that the group is exploiting the legal immunity of UN headquarters to cover its military activities, demanding that the UN investigate these accusations and work to evacuate gunmen and weapons from the building. The allegations could not be independently verified.

In another development, several people were killed and injured following an attack targeting the Al-Hadara popular market in the Al-Waziyah district in western Taiz, on Friday.

The health ministry of the unrecognized Houthi administration reported that at least 20 people were killed and 15 others wounded, while local authorities in Taiz blamed the militia for the attack.

Officials denied the incident was the result of coalition airstrikes, citing operations room reports confirming no military flights took place in the Al-Waziyah district that day.

Yemeni military spokesperson Majid Al-Nuzaili said the Houthis targeted the market with a ballistic missile, resulting in dozens of casualties.

He described the assault as a war crime reflecting the militia’s targeting of civilians following field losses or failed missile launches.