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Global Markets Reel from Putin's Nuclear Threats

A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives in Red Square during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS
A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives in Red Square during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS
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Global Markets Reel from Putin's Nuclear Threats

A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives in Red Square during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS
A Russian Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system drives in Red Square during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2023. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS

President Vladimir Putin’s remarks on Tuesday about revising Russia’s nuclear doctrine triggered immediate reactions in global financial markets, as investors rushed to safe haven assets.

Putin issued a warning to the US lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike after the administration of Joe Biden reportedly allowed Ukraine to fire American-made long-range missiles deep into Russia.

The Russian President’s warnings sent markets to extreme volatility.

In this context, global stocks sharply fell while gold prices and the Japanese yen climbed amid rising geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday, “The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against it or the Republic of Belarus, ... with the use of conventional weapons, in a way that poses a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) territorial integrity.”

The spokesperson further said that Russia would view the use of Western non-nuclear missiles by Ukraine as an attack by a non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state against the country, potentially justifying the use of nuclear weapons by Moscow, according to NBC news.

Rise of safe-haven assets

Global stocks briefly fell and investors fled to safe-haven assets on Tuesday, as global markets reacted to escalating tensions between the world's two largest nuclear powers: Russia and the US.

Investors rushed to safe-haven assets including gold and the Japanese yen.

Wall Street’s fear index, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index, jumped to 17,88, its highest level since the November 5 US elections. It then fell to 16.61.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 327 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% each. Treasurys increased as investors moved into the safe haven, driving yields lower.

Europe's main stock index touched its lowest level in three months on Tuesday, spurring investors to head to safer havens.

The pan-European STOXX 600 closed 0.9% lower, after logging a third straight day of losses.

Metals and currencies under pressure

Meanwhile, base metals prices came under pressure on Tuesday as some investors chose safe-haven assets due to signs of escalating tensions between Russia and the United States over Ukraine.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.3% to $9,042 per metric ton in official open-outcry trading. Spot gold prices rose by about 1%.

Meanwhile, LME aluminium prices were stable at $2,607 in official activity as the market digested China's plan to remove a tax refund on exports of some aluminium products.

Lead lost 0.4% to $1,983 due to the second day of a significant inflow of the metal to the LME-registered warehouses in Singapore.

Zinc fell 0.1% to $2,947.5, tin eased 0.4% to $28,900 and nickel rose 1.2% to $15,915.

In currency markets, the Japanese yen rose 0.7% and 0.36% against the euro and US dollar respectively.

“Typical risk-off move in forex following the headline,” said Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of forex strategy at Bofa, referring to the reaction to the Kremlin statement.

“The market has been complacent on geopolitical risks, focusing on other themes,” he added. “Positioning has been a long risk, getting even more stretched after the US elections.”

In return, crude oil futures were down slightly. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate, scheduled for delivery in December, fell 0.53% to $68.79.

Meanwhile, the price of a barrel of Brent, scheduled for delivery in January, fell 0.38% to $73.02.

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Business

Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
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Leading Harvard Trade Economist Says Saudi Arabia Holds Key to Success in Fragmented Global Economy

Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).
Professor Pol Antràs speaks during a panel discussion at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat).

Harvard University economics professor Pol Antràs said Saudi Arabia represents an exceptional model in the shifting global trade landscape, differing fundamentally from traditional emerging-market frameworks. He also stressed that globalization has not ended but has instead re-formed into what he describes as fragmented integration.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, Antràs said Saudi Arabia’s Vision-driven structural reforms position the Kingdom to benefit from the ongoing phase of fragmented integration, adding that the country’s strategic focus on logistics transformation and artificial intelligence constitutes a key engine for sustainable growth that extends beyond the volatility of global crises.

Antràs, the Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is one of the leading contemporary theorists of international trade. His research, which reshaped understanding of global value chains, focuses on how firms organize cross-border production and how regulation and technological change influence global trade flows and corporate decision-making.

He said conventional classifications of economies often obscure important structural differences, noting that the term emerging markets groups together countries with widely divergent industrial bases. Economies that depend heavily on manufacturing exports rely critically on market access and trade integration and therefore face stronger competitive pressures from Chinese exports that are increasingly shifting toward alternative markets.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, exports extensively while facing limited direct competition from China in its primary export commodity, a situation that creates a strategic opportunity. The current environment allows the Kingdom to obtain imports from China at lower cost and access a broader range of goods that previously flowed largely toward the United States market.

Addressing how emerging economies should respond to dumping pressures and rising competition, Antràs said countries should minimize protectionist tendencies and instead position themselves as committed participants in the multilateral trading system, allowing foreign producers to access domestic markets while encouraging domestic firms to expand internationally.

He noted that although Chinese dumping presents concerns for countries with manufacturing sectors that compete directly with Chinese production, the risk is lower for Saudi Arabia because it does not maintain a large manufacturing base that overlaps directly with Chinese exports. Lower-cost imports could benefit Saudi consumers, while targeted policy tools such as credit programs, subsidies, and support for firms seeking to redesign and upgrade business models represent more effective responses than broad protectionist measures.

Globalization has not ended

Antràs said globalization continues but through more complex structures, with trade agreements increasingly negotiated through diverse arrangements rather than relying primarily on multilateral negotiations. Trade deals will continue to be concluded, but they are likely to become more complex, with uncertainty remaining a defining feature of the global trading environment.

Interest rates and artificial intelligence

According to Antràs, high global interest rates, combined with the additional risk premiums faced by emerging markets, are constraining investment, particularly in sectors that require export financing, capital expenditure, and continuous quality upgrading.

However, he noted that elevated interest rates partly reflect expectations of stronger long-term growth driven by artificial intelligence and broader technological transformation.

He also said if those growth expectations materialize, productivity gains could enable small and medium-sized enterprises to forecast demand more accurately and identify previously untapped markets, partially offsetting the negative effects of higher borrowing costs.

Employment concerns and the role of government

The Harvard professor warned that labor markets face a dual challenge stemming from intensified Chinese export competition and accelerating job automation driven by artificial intelligence, developments that could lead to significant disruptions, particularly among younger workers. He said governments must adopt proactive strategies requiring substantial fiscal resources to mitigate near-term labor-market shocks.

According to Antràs, productivity growth remains the central condition for success: if new technologies deliver the anticipated productivity gains, governments will gain the fiscal space needed to compensate affected groups and retrain the workforce, achieving a balance between addressing short-term disruptions and investing in long-term strategic gains.

Business

Aljadaan: Emerging Markets Account for 70% of Global Growth

Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
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Aljadaan: Emerging Markets Account for 70% of Global Growth

Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat
Al-Jadaan speaking to the attendees at the "AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies" (Asharq Al-Awsat

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Aljadaan stressed Sunday that the world economy is going through a “profound transition,” saying emerging markets and developing economies now account for nearly 60 percent of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in purchasing power terms and over 70 percent of global growth.

In his opening remarks at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, organized by the Saudi Ministry of Finance and the IMF in AlUla, the minister said these economies have become an increasingly important driver of global growth with their share of global economy more than doubling since 2010.

“Today, the 10 emerging economies in the G20 alone account for more than half of the world growth. Yet, they face a more complex and fragmented environment, elevated debt levels, slower trade growth and increasing exposure to geopolitical shocks.”

“Unfortunately, more than half of low income countries are either in or at the risk of debt distress. At the same time global trade growth has slowed at around half of what it was pre the pandemic,” Aljadaan added.

The Finance Minister stressed that the Saudi experience over the past decade has reinforced three lessons that may be relevant to the discussions at the two-day conference, which brings together a select group of ministers and central bank governors, leaders of international organizations, leading investors and academics.

“First, macroeconomic stability is not the enemy of growth. It is actually the foundation,” he said.

“Structural reforms deliver results only when institutions deliver. So there is no point of reforming ... if the institutions are unable to deliver,” he stated.

Finally, he said that “international cooperation matters more, not less, in a fragmented world.”

Business

Georgieva from AlUla: Growth Still Lacks Pre-pandemic Levels

Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Georgieva from AlUla: Growth Still Lacks Pre-pandemic Levels

Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Kristalina Georgieva speaking to attendees at the second edition of the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies (Asharq Al-Awsat)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Sunday that world growth still lacks pre-pandemic levels, expressing concern as she expected more shocks amid high spending and rising debt levels in many countries.

Georgieva spoke at the AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies, organized by the Saudi Ministry of Finance and the IMF in AlUla.

The two-day conference brings together a select group of ministers and central bank governors, leaders of international organizations, leading investors and academics to deliberate on policies to global stability, prosperity, and multilateral collaboration.

Georgieva said that the conference was launched last year in recognition of the growing role of emerging market economies in a world of sweeping transformations.

“I came out of this gathering .... With a sense of hope for the pragmatic attitude and determination to pursue good policies and build strong institutions,” she said.

Georgieva stressed that “good policies pay off,” and said that growth rates across emerging economies reached four percent this year, exceeding by a large margin those of advanced economies that are around 1.5 percent.