North Korea, Russia Agree to Expand Economic Cooperation

FILE - Russia's natural resources minister Alexander Kozlov, right, is greeted by Yun Jong Ho, minister of External Economic Relations, as the Russian delegation leaves Pyongyang Airport in Pyongyang, on Nov. 16, 2023. (AP Photo/Jon Chol Jin, File)
FILE - Russia's natural resources minister Alexander Kozlov, right, is greeted by Yun Jong Ho, minister of External Economic Relations, as the Russian delegation leaves Pyongyang Airport in Pyongyang, on Nov. 16, 2023. (AP Photo/Jon Chol Jin, File)
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North Korea, Russia Agree to Expand Economic Cooperation

FILE - Russia's natural resources minister Alexander Kozlov, right, is greeted by Yun Jong Ho, minister of External Economic Relations, as the Russian delegation leaves Pyongyang Airport in Pyongyang, on Nov. 16, 2023. (AP Photo/Jon Chol Jin, File)
FILE - Russia's natural resources minister Alexander Kozlov, right, is greeted by Yun Jong Ho, minister of External Economic Relations, as the Russian delegation leaves Pyongyang Airport in Pyongyang, on Nov. 16, 2023. (AP Photo/Jon Chol Jin, File)

North Korea and Russia reached a new agreement for expanding economic cooperation following high-level talks in Pyongyang this week, the North’s state media said Thursday, as they continue to align in the face of their confrontations with Washington.

North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency didn’t elaborate on the details of the agreement signed Wednesday between its senior trade officials and a Russian delegation led by Alexandr Kozlov, the country’s minister of natural resources and ecology, The Associated Press reported. The Russian news agency Tass on Tuesday said officials following an earlier round of talks agreed to increase the number of charter flights between the countries to promote tourism.

Kozlov, who arrived in North Korea on Sunday, met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his top economic official, Premier Kim Tok Hun, before returning home on Wednesday, KCNA said. During Kozlov’s visit, Russian President Vladimir Putin gifted Pyongyang’s Central Zoo with more than 70 animals, including lions, bears and several species of birds, according to Tass, in another display of the countries’ growing ties.

Kim Jong Un in recent months has prioritized relations with Moscow as he attempts to break out of international isolation and strengthen his footing, actively supporting Putin’s war on Ukraine while portraying the North as a player in a united front against Washington.

Kim has yet to directly acknowledge that he has been providing military equipment and troops to Russia to support its fighting against Ukraine. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told lawmakers in a closed-door briefing on Wednesday that an estimated 11,000 North Korean soldiers in late October were moved to Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops seized parts of its territory this year, following their training in Russia’s northeast.

The spy agency believes the North Korean soldiers were assigned to Russia’s marine and airborne forces units and some of them have already begun fighting alongside the Russians on the frontlines, said Lee Seong Kweun, a lawmaker who attended the meeting. US, South Korean and Ukrainian officials have claimed that the North has also been supplying Russia with artillery systems, missiles and other equipment.

North Korea would be possibly getting anywhere between $320 million to $1.3 billion annually from Russia for sending its troops to Ukraine, considering the scale of the dispatch and the level of payments Russia has been providing to foreign mercenaries, according to a recent study by Lim Soo-ho, a South Korean analyst at an NIS-run think tank.

While that would be meaningful income for North Korea’s crippled and heavily sanctioned economy, it could be lower than the money the North earns from illicit coal exports or supplying military equipment to Russia, Lim said. This suggests that North Korea’s troop dispatch is less about money than acquiring key Russian technologies to further advance its nuclear weapons and missile program, which is a major concern in Seoul, Lim said.

Amid the stalemate in larger nuclear negotiations with Washington, Kim has been dialing up pressure on South Korea, abandoning his country’s long-standing goal of inter-Korean reconciliation and verbally threatening to attack the South with nukes if provoked. He has used Russia’s war on Ukraine as a distraction to accelerate the development of his nuclear-armed military, which now has various nuclear-capable systems targeting South Korea and intercontinental ballistic missiles that can potentially reach the US mainland.



Energy Sector Clears ‘Hormuz’ After US-Iran Deal, Risk Premium in Focus

Ships wait to transit the Strait of Hormuz on June 15. REUTERS
Ships wait to transit the Strait of Hormuz on June 15. REUTERS
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Energy Sector Clears ‘Hormuz’ After US-Iran Deal, Risk Premium in Focus

Ships wait to transit the Strait of Hormuz on June 15. REUTERS
Ships wait to transit the Strait of Hormuz on June 15. REUTERS

The energy sector and the global economy have avoided the worst-case scenario: oil at $150 a barrel.

That was the level many financial institutions and international companies had used in shaping their investment assumptions. International officials and governments also expected it and aligned with those forecasts.

For the global economy, $150 oil would have meant an energy sector slipping out of control, with damaging consequences for other industries. That did not happen. Brent crude is now trading at about $80 a barrel, roughly $70 below that feared level and above its pre-war price of $70.

With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resuming after a preliminary peace agreement reached by the United States and Iran, expected to take effect next Friday, energy is again moving to the center of the global economic picture. For years, the sector has supported global growth, development and market stability, helping shield international markets from sudden shocks.

What comes after the agreement?

Since the preliminary US-Iran agreement was announced, oil prices have fallen by nearly $20 a barrel. That is a major cost relief for countries that import crude, and one that is likely to feed through to many other goods, given oil’s role as a basic input in finished products.

Stock markets rose in parallel, lifted by optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the return of shipping to normal. The prospect of commodity prices easing back toward pre-war levels could support corporate earnings and the wider global economy.

But Mamdouh Salameh, an international energy expert, said prices would not return to pre-war levels so easily.

“The current situation indicates that Iran controls 20% of global oil and gas supplies as a result of its closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, oil prices after the agreement must take into account a permanent price premium because of Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz,” Salameh told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Speaking from London, Salameh said that even after the strait reopens, “the volume of oil flowing through it will fall to half its pre-war level because of the damage sustained by oil production facilities in the Arabian Gulf.”

He expected repairs to some facilities to take about eight to 12 months. “For this reason, Brent crude will not return to its pre-war level of $60 to $65 a barrel, but will range between $85 and $90 for many years to come,” he said.

Spot premiums for crude oil and some refined products in Asian markets fell on Tuesday, settling at pre-war levels after the announcement of the preliminary agreement between Washington and Tehran. Still, caution over the timeline for restoring normal navigation has so far placed a floor under energy prices, preventing a sharper decline.

Supply and demand

Saudi Aramco President Amin Nasser estimated that the oil market loses about 100 million additional barrels for every week the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, after the crisis had already removed about 1 billion barrels from supply.

Nasser said in remarks in mid-May that the gap was being covered through withdrawals from strategic and commercial inventories.

About 20% of global oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Its closure has tested the depth of strategic inventories worldwide and posed a major challenge to the global energy sector. That was clear in moves by the International Energy Agency and its members to draw from strategic reserves.

Estimates of global demand growth this year range from 700,000 to 900,000 barrels per day. That suggests demand will remain strong long after Hormuz reopens, driven by daily oil needs for power generation and normal consumption, as well as the need to rebuild inventories.

Asia is the most exposed. The US Energy Information Administration estimates that 84% of the crude oil and condensates that passed through Hormuz in 2024 went to Asian markets, led by China, India, Japan and South Korea.

Against this backdrop, Aramco, the Saudi oil giant, said its maximum production capacity remains intact and that the company can, if requested by the government and within allocated quotas, return to maximum sustained capacity in less than three weeks.

QatarEnergy, among the hardest hit, said it expects to raise natural gas production to about 50% of capacity one month after safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored.

The world is now waiting for the terms of the preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran to be disclosed, so implementation can begin. Only then can a timeline be set for ships to reach “zero waiting,” followed by the return of Gulf production capacity.

Haitham El-Gendy, an international markets expert, said, “The matter depends on how quickly navigation through the Strait of Hormuz returns to pre-war levels, and how quickly supplies from the Gulf region resume. Both issues depend primarily on hostilities not resuming during the 60-day negotiation period.”

“If we assume that things will proceed well, a return to normal will require weeks, given the scale of tanker congestion around the strait and the need to remove mines,” El-Gendy told Asharq Al-Awsat. “As for Gulf supplies, this will also require varying periods depending on the extent of the damage to each country’s energy facilities.”

According to Wood Mackenzie, halted crude production fields in the region will return to 70% of their previous output within three months and about 90% within six months. For liquefied natural gas, of which Qatar produces one-fifth of global supply, a return to full production capacity will take several months and could stretch into years after damage to the Ras Laffan facility.

On crude prices, El-Gendy said that if tensions do not flare again, oil could move in the $80-a-barrel range, with room to rise, as countries replenish inventories and strategic reserves depleted in recent months and Chinese demand recovers to pre-war levels.


Syria Signs Gas Sector Contract with US Energy Giant

A screen displays the logo for ConocoPhillips on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
A screen displays the logo for ConocoPhillips on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
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Syria Signs Gas Sector Contract with US Energy Giant

A screen displays the logo for ConocoPhillips on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
A screen displays the logo for ConocoPhillips on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Syria on Tuesday signed a contract involving US oil giant ConocoPhillips to develop the country's gas sector, state media reported, as Damascus seeks to attract international energy investment.

Damascus previously signed memoranda of understanding on energy with international companies including Chevron as well as HKN Energy, which has begun managing and operating oil fields recently handed over to the government by Syrian Kurdish authorities.

State news agency SANA reported that the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company signed "a contract with US companies ConocoPhillips and Novaterra with the aim of developing a number of gas fields in Syria and increasing production from existing fields".

The move seeks to "contribute to supporting the energy system and strengthening gas supplies required for the electricity sector and other vital sectors," it said.

In Washington last week, Syrian Petroleum Company CEO Youssef Qablawi said it would be "the biggest contract" to be signed since the new authorities took power after the December 2024 ouster of longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad.

At the signing ceremony in Damascus, Qablawi said the move was "an important step in the process of developing the gas sector in Syria".

"Through this cooperation, we look forward to increasing production, improving operational capabilities and supporting the energy system," he added.

A Syrian delegation headed by Energy Minister Mohammad al-Bashir held talks in Washington last week on investment prospects in energy and infrastructure in Syria and possible partnerships with the US private sector.

After years of civil war that fractured the country and ravaged its industries and infrastructure, Syria is seeking to modernize its energy infrastructure, attract investment and boost development as it pushes on a path of economic recovery, particularly after the lifting of Assad-era sanctions.

Syria aims to produce one million barrels of oil per day by 2030 and is seeking to broaden international cooperation on exploration and production.

Last month, Syria signed a memorandum of understanding with ConocoPhillips, France's TotalEnergies and Qatar's QatarEnergy, on offshore oil and gas exploration.

In February, it also signed a preliminary deal with US energy giant Chevron and Qatari firm Power International for offshore energy exploration.

Damascus now controls all the country's oil and gas fields, after taking over areas previously under Kurdish control in the north and northeast this year.

The deputy governor of the northeastern Hasakah province, Ahmed al-Hilali, on Monday said HKN Energy had begun managing and operating those fields.


Oil Drops About 4% to Three-month Low as Markets Weigh US-Iran Deal

AUSTIN, TEXAS - JUNE 15: In an aerial view, oil storage tanks are seen at the Sunoco LP Fuel Supply Terminal on June 15, 2026 in Austin, Texas.  Brandon Bell/Getty Images/AFP
AUSTIN, TEXAS - JUNE 15: In an aerial view, oil storage tanks are seen at the Sunoco LP Fuel Supply Terminal on June 15, 2026 in Austin, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images/AFP
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Oil Drops About 4% to Three-month Low as Markets Weigh US-Iran Deal

AUSTIN, TEXAS - JUNE 15: In an aerial view, oil storage tanks are seen at the Sunoco LP Fuel Supply Terminal on June 15, 2026 in Austin, Texas.  Brandon Bell/Getty Images/AFP
AUSTIN, TEXAS - JUNE 15: In an aerial view, oil storage tanks are seen at the Sunoco LP Fuel Supply Terminal on June 15, 2026 in Austin, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images/AFP

Oil prices fell about 4% on Tuesday to fresh three-month lows as markets weighed prospects for a resumption of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz alongside weaker physical demand and scant details on a preliminary deal to end the Iran war.

Brent crude futures were down $3.20, or 3.85%, at $79.97 a barrel at 1253 GMT. They earlier touched $79.61, the lowest since March 3, and the first time they have fallen below $80 since that day.

US West Texas Intermediate was down $3.52, or 4.36%, at $77.23 a barrel. WTI's intra-day nadir of $76.88 was the lowest since March 10.

Before the war started on February 28, Brent and WTI futures were trading around $65-70 per barrel.

Oil prices sank nearly 5% on Monday after US President Donald Trump announced an interim deal to end the US-Israeli war with Iran, though full details have not been released.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Tuesday that Iran and the US would start a new round of talks in Switzerland on Friday to reach a final agreement.

"Near-term downside risks remain as the market prices a faster reopening of the Strait and a return of stranded barrels," Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said.

However, depleted inventories, seasonal demand, strategic stock rebuilding and lingering geopolitical uncertainty suggest the path back to pre-war prices may be far less straightforward than current market optimism implies, Hansen said.