Russia Advances in Ukraine at Fastest Monthly Pace Since Start of War, Analysts Say

A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
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Russia Advances in Ukraine at Fastest Monthly Pace Since Start of War, Analysts Say

A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)

Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine at the fastest rate since the early days of the 2022 invasion, taking an area half the size of Greater London over the past month, analysts and war bloggers say.

The war is entering what some Russian and Western officials say could be its most dangerous phase after Moscow's forces made some of their biggest territorial gains and the United States allowed Kyiv to strike back with US missiles.

"Russia has set new weekly and monthly records for the size of the occupied territory in Ukraine," independent Russian news group Agentstvo said in a report.

The Russian army captured almost 235 sq km (91 sq miles) in Ukraine over the past week, a weekly record for 2024, it said.

Russian forces had taken 600 sq km (232 sq miles) in November, it added, citing data from DeepState, a group with close links to the Ukrainian army that studies combat footage and provides frontline maps.

Russia began advancing faster in eastern Ukraine in July just as Ukrainian forces carved out a sliver of its western region of Kursk. Since then, the Russian advance has accelerated, according to open source maps.

Russia's forces are moving into the town of Kurakhove, a stepping stone towards the logistical hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, and have been exploiting the vulnerabilities of Kyiv troops along the frontline, analysts said.

"Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023," analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a report.

The General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces said in its Monday update that 45 battles of varying intensity were raging along the Kurakhove part of the frontline that evening.

The Institute for the Study of War report and pro-Russian military bloggers say Russian troops are in Kurakhove. Deep State said on its Telegram messaging app on Monday that Russian forces are near Kurakhove.

"Russian forces' advances in southeastern Ukraine are largely the result of the discovery and tactical exploitation of vulnerabilities in Ukraine's lines," Institute analysts said in their report.

Russia says it will achieve all of its aims in Ukraine no matter what the West says or does.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly said peace cannot be established until all Russian forces are expelled and all territory captured by Moscow, including Crimea, is returned.

But outnumbered by Russian troops, the Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and provide equipment to new units.

Zelenskiy has said he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin's main objectives were to occupy the entire Donbas, spanning the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, and oust Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, parts of which they have controlled since August.



Russia Condemns ‘Irresponsible’ Talk of Nuclear Weapons for Ukraine

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends a press conference of Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia October 24, 2024. (Reuters)
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends a press conference of Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia October 24, 2024. (Reuters)
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Russia Condemns ‘Irresponsible’ Talk of Nuclear Weapons for Ukraine

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends a press conference of Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia October 24, 2024. (Reuters)
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends a press conference of Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia October 24, 2024. (Reuters)

Discussion in the West about arming Ukraine with nuclear weapons is "absolutely irresponsible", Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, in response to a report in the New York Times citing unidentified officials who suggested such a possibility.

The New York Times reported last week that some unidentified Western officials had suggested US President Joe Biden could give Ukraine nuclear weapons before he leaves office.

"Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications," the newspaper wrote.

Asked about the report, Peskov told reporters: "These are absolutely irresponsible arguments of people who have a poor understanding of reality and who do not feel a shred of responsibility when making such statements. We also note that all of these statements are anonymous."

Earlier, senior Russian security official Dmitry Medvedev said that if the West supplied nuclear weapons to Ukraine then Moscow could consider such a transfer to be tantamount to an attack on Russia, providing grounds for a nuclear response.

Ukraine inherited nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union after its 1991 collapse, but gave them up under a 1994 agreement, the Budapest Memorandum, in return for security assurances from Russia, the United States and Britain.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last month that as Ukraine had handed over the nuclear weapons, joining NATO was the only way it could deter Russia.

The 33-month Russia-Ukraine war saw escalations on both sides last week, after Ukraine fired US and British missiles into Russia for the first time, with permission from the West, and Moscow responded by launching a new hypersonic intermediate-range missile into Ukraine.

Asked about the risk of a nuclear escalation, Peskov said the West should "listen carefully" to Putin and read Russia's newly updated nuclear doctrine, which lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons.

Separately, Russian foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin said Moscow opposes simply freezing the conflict in Ukraine because it needs a "solid and long-term peace" that resolves the core reasons for the crisis.