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Oil Rises on Upbeat China Data, Shaky Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

FILE - Pump jacks work in a field near Lovington, N.M., April 24, 2015. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)
FILE - Pump jacks work in a field near Lovington, N.M., April 24, 2015. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)
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Oil Rises on Upbeat China Data, Shaky Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

FILE - Pump jacks work in a field near Lovington, N.M., April 24, 2015. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)
FILE - Pump jacks work in a field near Lovington, N.M., April 24, 2015. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)

Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by strong factory activity in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, and heightened tensions in the Middle East as Israel resumed attacks on Lebanon despite a ceasefire agreement.
Brent crude futures climbed 57 cents, or 0.79%, to $72.41 a barrel by 0700 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $68.58 a barrel, up 58 cents, or 0.85%.
"Oil prices have managed to stabilize into the new week, with the continued expansion in China's manufacturing activities reflecting some degree of policy success from recent stimulus efforts," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
This offered slight relief that oil demand from China may hold for now, he added.
A private-sector survey showed China's factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November, boosting Chinese firms' optimism just as US President-elect Donald Trump ramps up his trade threats.
Still, traders are eyeing developments in Syria, weighing if they could widen tension across the Middle East, Yeap said.
A truce between Israel and Lebanon took effect on Wednesday, but each side accused the other of breaching the ceasefire.
In a statement, the Lebanese health ministry said several people were wounded in two Israeli strikes in south Lebanon. Air strikes also intensified in Syria, as President Bashar al-Assad vowed to crush insurgents who had swept into the city of Aleppo.
Last week, both benchmarks suffered a weekly decline of more than 3%, on easing concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and forecasts of surplus supply in 2025, even as OPEC+ is expected to extend output cuts.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, postponed its meeting to Dec. 5, sources told Reuters last week.
This week's meeting will decide policy for the early months of 2025.
Since the group's production hike had been widely expected, the market's focus may be on the extent of delay to sway crude prices, said IG's Yeap.
"An indefinite delay may be the best case for oil prices, given that earlier rounds of delays by a month or so have failed to drive higher oil prices in line with what OPEC+ intended."
Brent is expected to average $74.53 per barrel in 2025 as economic weakness in China clouds the demand picture and ample global supplies outweigh support from an expected delay to a planned OPEC+ output hike, a Reuters monthly oil price poll showed on Friday.
That is the seventh straight downward revision in the 2025 consensus for the global benchmark, which has averaged $80 per barrel so far in 2024.

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Business

Saudi Finance Minister at Davos: Fiscal Discipline Drove Our Credit Upgrades

Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan and senior Saudi officials at a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday.
Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan and senior Saudi officials at a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday.
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Saudi Finance Minister at Davos: Fiscal Discipline Drove Our Credit Upgrades

Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan and senior Saudi officials at a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday.
Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan and senior Saudi officials at a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said on Tuesday strict fiscal discipline lay behind the Kingdom’s string of credit rating upgrades, arguing that Saudi Arabia has built a buffer against oil price shocks after restructuring its economy to lift the non-oil sector’s share to 56%.

Speaking to CNBC on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said dialogue, not confrontation, remains the only viable path to rebalancing global geoeconomic power.

He stressed that the Kingdom’s receipt of three credit rating upgrades last year was no coincidence, describing it as an international vote of confidence in the government’s fiscal discipline.

Global rating agencies and the International Monetary Fund are now clearly seeing the results of structural transformation, he remarked, noting that the Saudi budget is no longer hostage to energy price volatility, but instead rests on strong institutional foundations.

He also reaffirmed that Saudi-US relations remain “strategic” and ongoing at all levels of leadership and the ministerial level, adding that a previously cited figure of one trillion dollars in Saudi investment in the United States is not only realistic but could be exceeded.

The US market represents a core growth area, offering the Kingdom financial returns as well as knowledge and expertise transfers that serve national interests, the minister added.

In the face of the threat of global tariff hikes, Al-Jadaan called for resolving trade disputes through multilateral institutions, stressing that companies need certainty and that constructive dialogue with Washington and other strategic partners is essential to safeguarding global trade stability.

Investment discipline

Responding to questions about budget deficits alongside massive investments, Al-Jadaan outlined a different fiscal philosophy, describing the deficit as a deliberate policy design rather than a result of financial strain.

The Kingdom is borrowing to finance tomorrow’s growth, not today’s operating expenses, he said.

He pointed to last year’s three credit upgrades as evidence of the policy’s success, saying fiscal space is being managed with high discipline to channel resources toward jobs and gross domestic product, particularly as the non-oil economy now accounts for about 56% of total output.

Breaking the historical link

Asked about the US administration’s preference for oil prices around $50 a barrel, Al-Jadaan said Saudi Arabia has succeeded over the past decade in decoupling its economy from oil volatility, with non-oil revenues now making up 30% of total revenues.

He warned that excessively low prices could discourage global investment and trigger sharp price spikes in the future due to supply shortages, stressing that Saudi Arabia’s priority is market stability that balances the interests of both investors and consumers.

On monetary policy, Al-Jadaan underlined the Kingdom’s firm commitment to the riyal’s peg to the US dollar, calling it a cornerstone of stability and investor expectations.

He downplayed the impact of ongoing investigations into the US Federal Reserve on the Saudi economy, saying the Kingdom has policy tools beyond monetary policy that have kept inflation at very safe levels.

He added that markets determine long-term borrowing costs based on supply and demand, rather than short-term Federal Reserve decisions, helping reduce currency volatility risks and boost investor confidence.

Al-Jadaan announced a landmark step, starting on February 1, when the stock and real estate markets will be further opened to foreign investors.

The rise in institutional investor ownership in 2025 is a vote of confidence in the Saudi market's value, despite challenges, he stressed.

He warned, however, that the greatest risk facing any economy is complacency, stressing that Saudi Arabia is working institutionally to ensure sustainable results and that reforms no longer depend on daily interventions but have become a default approach whose benefits are felt by citizens and investors alike.

Business

Saudi Crown Prince’s Directives Cut Riyadh Property Prices by 3%

A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
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Saudi Crown Prince’s Directives Cut Riyadh Property Prices by 3%

A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)
A general view of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. (SPA)

Real estate prices in Saudi Arabia’s capital fell 3% in the final quarter of last year, reversing a 1% rise in the previous quarter, in a shift that highlights the on-the-ground impact of policy moves ordered by Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Crown Prince and Prime Minister, to rein in soaring property costs across the Kingdom, particularly in Riyadh.

According to an index issued by the General Authority for Statistics on Tuesday, the real estate price index in Saudi Arabia fell 0.7% in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the same period of 2024.

The decline was driven mainly by weaker performance in the residential sector, which carries the most significant weight in the index, as its annual rate of change fell 2.2%.

The commercial sector continued to see a slight slowdown in growth momentum, while maintaining positive annual growth of 3.6%.

A real balance

Real estate specialists told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Crown Prince’s directives have become evident on the ground after property prices in Riyadh surged to unprecedented levels, prompting government intervention to curb the increases and enable citizens to own their first homes without excessive financial burdens.

Real estate analyst Khaled Al-Mobid said the 0.7 % decline in the real estate price index in the fourth quarter of 2025 reflects the market’s entry into a phase of real balance after years of rapid price increases, describing it as a healthy indicator that supports, rather than weakens, market sustainability.

“What we are witnessing today is not a loss in value, but a logical price correction, particularly in the residential sector, due to increased supply, improved regulation, and greater awareness among market participants, whether buyers or investors,” Al-Mobid told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He added that this balance creates better opportunities for end users, redirects investment toward appropriate products at fair prices, and curbs short-term speculation, serving the real estate economy over the medium and long term.

Housing stability

Real estate specialist Ahmed Omar Basudan told Asharq Al-Awsat that the sector has seen declines in many regions of the Kingdom, as buyers await the effects of government decisions issued under the Crown Prince’s direction.

He cited recent measures, including the announcement of the names of beneficiaries of subsidized land grants in northern Riyadh, located in some of the area’s best neighborhoods.

Basudan said the decision to fix residential rental prices in Riyadh for five years also contributed to the decline in the capital’s real estate market, as tenants are experiencing a period of housing stability, reducing demand for purchases at this stage.

He added that recent amendments to fees on undeveloped land and vacant properties, which have been implemented and are now being collected, also played a role, prompting landowners to move quickly to sell some plots at competitive prices to avoid bearing those fees.

Data from the General Authority for Statistics showed that residential real estate prices fell in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the same quarter of 2024, with the sector declining 2.2%. The drop was driven by a 2.4% fall in residential land prices, a 2.5% decline in apartment prices, a 1.3% decrease in villa prices, and a 0.2% drop in residential floor prices.

Quarterly comparison

The real estate price index fell 0.4% in the fourth quarter of last year, at a slower pace than in the third quarter.

The index was affected by a 0.4% decline in the residential sector, driven by a 0.7% drop in residential land prices, a 0.4% fall in apartment prices, and a 0.2% decrease in residential floor prices, while villa prices rose 0.8%.

At the regional level, the annual real estate price index fell 0.7% nationwide in the fourth quarter of last year, with Riyadh recording a 3% decline, compared with a 1% increase in the third quarter.

The Eastern Province posted the highest real estate price increase at 4%, followed by Makkah at 2.5%, Tabuk and Jazan at 1.1% each, and Al-Jawf at 0.4%.

By contrast, Hail, the Northern Borders region, and Madinah recorded the steepest declines, at 8.9%, 6.8%, and 6.1%, respectively.

Business

Saudi Industry Minister Meets with Global Leaders at World Economic Forum to Advance Partnerships

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef held a series of high-level meetings with government officials and global business leaders at the World Economic Forum. (SPA)
Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef held a series of high-level meetings with government officials and global business leaders at the World Economic Forum. (SPA)
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Saudi Industry Minister Meets with Global Leaders at World Economic Forum to Advance Partnerships

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef held a series of high-level meetings with government officials and global business leaders at the World Economic Forum. (SPA)
Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef held a series of high-level meetings with government officials and global business leaders at the World Economic Forum. (SPA)

Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef held on Tuesday a series of high-level meetings with government officials and global business leaders on the sidelines of the Kingdom's participation in the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos.

As part of the Saudi delegation, Alkhorayef participated in a meeting with Swiss President Guy Parmelin. The meeting reviewed the robust strategic partnership between their nations and explored avenues to deepen cooperation in the industrial and mining sectors, aiming to expand bilateral ties to serve mutual interests.

Alkhorayef met with CEO of BlackRock Larry Fink, and President and CEO of the World Economic Forum Børge Brende. Talks focused on boosting the partnership between the Kingdom and the forum, exploring new cooperation in advanced manufacturing and critical minerals, and strengthening joint efforts to fortify industrial and mining supply chains.

In a series of bilateral meetings, Alkhorayef met with leaders of major global firms, including CEO of Capgemini Aiman Ezzat, Senior Partner at Bain & Company Dr. Jörg Gnamm, and CEO of Copa-Data Stefan Reuther. The meetings focused on unlocking opportunities for collaboration in advanced manufacturing, digital solutions, industrial automation, and smart systems. The officials emphasized leveraging global consulting expertise to boost factory efficiency, accelerate the Kingdom's industrial transformation, and bolster the competitiveness of its industrial and mining sectors.