The 'Smuggler' of Syrian Torture Archives Reveals His True Identity

In a “Asharq Al-Awsat” exclusive, Caesar’s twin witness warns against ignoring accountability

Sami reveals to “Asharq Al-Awsat” that he is Osama Othman
Sami reveals to “Asharq Al-Awsat” that he is Osama Othman
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The 'Smuggler' of Syrian Torture Archives Reveals His True Identity

Sami reveals to “Asharq Al-Awsat” that he is Osama Othman
Sami reveals to “Asharq Al-Awsat” that he is Osama Othman

For many years, the world only knew them by the aliases Caesar and Sami. Since 2014, these two names have been associated with documenting torture in Syrian prisons. The photos they smuggled out of Syria shook the world and prompted the United States to impose strict sanctions on the regime of former President Bashar al-Assad, under what became known as the “Caesar Act.”

These horrific photos documenting torture inflicted on detainees in Syrian prisons were used in courts in Western countries to convict Syrian officers on charges of torture and human rights violations.

But who is Sami, Ceasar’s “twin witness”?

In the first-ever interview he grants using his real name and photo, Sami revealed to “Asharq Al-Awsat” that he is Osama Othman, and that he is today head of the board of directors of the “Caesar Files Group Organization.”

He was working as a civil engineer when the Syrian revolution broke out in 2011, a revolution that began peacefully but quickly turned into a bloodbath after the forces of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime brutally suppressed it.

Sami lived in the Damascus countryside, which was divided between opposition factions and government forces. His area was under the control of factions that were part of what was known as the “Free Army,” but a person very close to him, who later became known as “Caesar,” was working in areas controlled by the regime forces. His job was not ordinary. His mission was to document deaths in Syrian security services departments. He documented them with photos: this body is missing a part of the head, this one is missing eyes, and that one has signs of severe torture. Some of the bodies showed signs of starvation.

He documented naked bodies with numbers. Thousands of photos. Women, men, and children. The crime of many of them was officially classified as “terrorism.” But how could a child’s crime be “terrorism”? The ugliness of the crimes prompted “Sami” and “Caesar” to work together to document what was happening in Syrian prisons and detention centers, specifically in Damascus, where “Caesar” worked and who sometimes documented the deaths of no less than 70 people a day. The two men began collaborating on collecting torture documents in May 2011. “Caesar” would smuggle the photos on a USB drive and give them to Sami in opposition areas.

“Dad... why are they sleeping without clothes?”

The “smuggler” of the Syrian torture archive is often reluctant to talk about himself and evades answering questions about his personal role in the story. However, after much persistence, he recounted a small portion of his experience. He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Even my children did not know that they were the children of the man who carries the secret alias (Sami)... Once, as I was watching and searching for a photo among the evidence on my computer at night, I was surprised that my young son came to me and asked: Dad, why do these people sleep without clothes? In his innocence, he thought they were asleep. It is difficult to make your son live through this pain, so it was necessary for us to protect our children by protecting ourselves.”

Recalling his feelings at the time, he added: “When you make a very serious decision, why make others bear the responsibility for this decision? People you would not have consulted when you left. People who were only a few years old and people who were very old, you would’ve burdened them with fear without asking their permission at a moment when you decided that your responsibility was greater than your love for your family”.

The efforts of “Sami” and “Caesar” resulted in smuggling tens of thousands of photos of the bodies of torture victims out of Syria. The photos were revealed for the first time in 2014 after they left Syria. Today, the photos they smuggled have become part of the “indictment” against the security services that were affiliated with President Bashar al-Assad. In fact, the crimes were not limited to one prison or another. Torture practices were widespread in a way that leaves no doubt that it was a systematic policy adopted by the ruling regime, most likely with cover from the highest levels.

Asharq Al-Awsat asked Sami why he decided to break his silence and reveal his real name. He replied: “The Syrians know the answer to this question. I think the answer is obvious for most Syrians who were inside Syria and those who were outside it. The nature of the work and the nature of the documents that we left Syria with, which went through complex stages and many steps until we reached this blessed day, was the reason I was keen to hide my identity and the identity of many of the team members.

He added: “Today, thank God, we are in a completely different situation. We are in another place. In a new Syria. I wanted the Syrians to know what happened, and I also addressed them and the authorities in Damascus with what we hope the situation will be regarding the legal issues related to documenting and archiving data and evidence that will lead us to a stage of accountability and transitional justice to achieve stability in Syrian society. I think this matter deserves that we come out to tell the world what information and ideas we have so that we do not fall into the same problem in future generations.”

Sami adds: “I did not think, in truth, that I would live to say this word. Congratulations to our people in Syria on the fall of Assad. Congratulations to all the honorable people in this world on the fall of Assad. Thanks to everyone who stood with our revolution and shame on everyone who stood against it. After 14 years of working in secret and facing fear and anxiety, the sun of long-awaited freedom is now shining on Syria, for which our people paid a heavy price. A team of unknown heroes led a complex work full of dangers, that were not solely emanating from the regime. Today, they pledge to Syria to continue defending the dignity of the Syrian human being wherever he may be.”

The importance of accountability

Sami stressed the importance of “accountability” in Syria today, after the overthrow of the former regime, and says: “In this critical moment that Syria is going through as it prepares to enter a new phase after more than five decades of the Assad family rule, we call on the (new) government to work hard to achieve justice, hold perpetrators accountable, and ensure the dignity of human rights as a basis for building a better future that all Syrians dream of.”

He added: “We have witnessed during the past few days, and the rapid events that preceded them, a noticeable increase in the possibility of chaos spreading as a result of the remnants of the Syrian regime. Citizens randomly entering prisons and detention centers have led to the destruction or loss of very important official documents and records that reveal violations dating back decades.” He stressed that “the full responsibility for the destruction of evidence and the loss of the rights of detainees and survivors lies with the security officials of the former regime who have left and those who are still carrying out their duties and responsibilities, in addition to the current forces that are preparing to take power in Damascus. Although what is happening now can be expected after the liberation of the country from the Syrian regime, swift intervention has become urgent in collecting evidence and documents from the previous archives of security institutions, ministries and other government institutions, and this is what raises our concern about the continued work of the regime’s employees, which enables them to obliterate and destroy files of importance in revealing the crimes of the defunct regime.”

Baath Party documents

Sami believes that “all the institutions of the former regime hold documents of extreme importance, whether security, civil or military, and we do not ignore our concern about the obliteration of documents in all the branches and annexes of the Baath Party, which all Syrians know were security institutions par excellence, and those in charge of them practiced all forms of physical and moral intimidation against our great people throughout the years of the revolution.”

He adds: “We hope that this step will be taken with the participation of human rights organizations concerned with following up on issues related to research and investigation into human rights violations. The delay in revealing the official and secret detention sites that may exist in the liberated areas or areas that the armed forces of the Syrian opposition did not reach, in addition to testimonies and information circulating about the transfer of detainees from different prisons to unknown places before the fall of the regime, and the failure to provide the necessary medical and humanitarian assistance to the survivors who were released in the past days, reflects a disregard for the lives of these individuals.”

Sami called on the current authorities to “take immediate and transparent steps to reveal the fate of detainees and victims who died under torture in Syrian prisons and to suspend all those responsible for managing and operating prisons to begin urgently and immediately providing documents that clarify the names and numbers of victims to ensure the families’ right to know the fate of their loved ones. The Syrian people's right to access the truth cannot be compromised and is a duty of all concerned parties. Tolerating perpetrators of crimes under any pretext constitutes a clear violation of humanitarian and legal standards, and gives the green light to reproduce the tools of repression and violations that were practiced by the security services and are still in place.”

The Syrian human rights activist stressed that “achieving justice requires holding accountable all those involved in the crimes committed against the Syrian people, and achieving peace and stability in Syria depends on transitional justice as a fundamental principle at this stage. We call for a national reconciliation based on the principles of justice and accountability that guarantees the rights of all components of the Syrian people in a safe and stable environment that respects their dignity and meets their needs while ensuring that there is no impunity under any name.”

Opposition “imposed” on the people

Sami criticized parties in the Syrian opposition without specifying them, speaking about “failures” they had experienced. He said: “In light of the previous political failures of the opposition that were imposed on the Syrian people, we stress the need to make immediate reassuring statements about the vision and how to involve the people in decision-making and begin the process of building society in a way that respects the will of the Syrian people and guarantees their right to self-determination.”

He called on the current authority to consolidate and facilitate the work of all civil society institutions operating inside and outside Syria. “We also call on all of them to support efforts to achieve transitional justice in Syria effectively and to involve the Syrian people in developments on a regular basis, and to contribute to providing humanitarian and medical support to survivors of arrest and enforced disappearance, and to ensure that all those involved in crimes are held accountable and that impunity is not allowed.”

Sami also called for publishing and disseminating the names of the officers responsible for crimes against the Syrian people, and to monitor official and unofficial crossings, “as well as call on the official Syrian media institutions that have always contributed to the oppression of Syrians by distorting facts and glorifying the killers, to return to their natural function as a tool that strengthens the citizen's confidence in state institutions and a source of correct information”.

He adds: “It pains us to see our people searching for the names of their missing loved ones on social media pages, while state media is absent from performing its mission for which it only exists as a non-politicized service institution."

Crimes without a statute of limitations

Sami stressed that "crimes against humanity and crimes of genocide do not expire with a statute of limitations and cannot be tolerated under any circumstances”. He continues: “The Syria we dream of is a free Syria based on justice and equality. Transitional justice that precedes comprehensive national reconciliation is the only way to build the Syria of the future. We are all hopeful that Syria will be fine now. The Syria that our team left 11 years ago with thousands of tortured faces and disfigured bodies. Hundreds of which were separated from their eyes, who dreamed of being among us today”.

“In one of those faces, I saw the image of my father, mother, brothers and friends. In the darkness of the long nights, I looked at those faces and promised them that we would win." He listed his comrades killed by the regime, Yahya Shorbaji (a human rights activist), Ghiath Matar, Abdullah Othman, Burhan Ghadhban, and Nour al-Din Zaatar, saying: "To all of them, those I knew and those I did not know, may God have mercy on you. We have won (...) and Assad has fallen. May God have mercy on you and may the curse of history be upon Assad."

Unknown Heroes Behind Caesar

Sami refused to provide information about how he and Caesar left Syria and reached Western countries. However, he simply said, in response to a question: “I am Osama Othman, a civil engineer from the Damascus countryside. Many people know me even though I hide under the name (Sami). I had to use it as a shield to protect me during the period of hard work on these complex files that many unknown heroes contributed to creating.”

He added: “I am not the only one. There are many unknown heroes who contributed to getting us to this stage. The Caesar files required tremendous efforts in Europe through the courts, and in the United States through Syrian organizations that made tremendous efforts until they were able to push the US administration to issue what is called the Caesar Act or the Civilian Protection Act.”



Why Do ‘Temporary’ Weapons Depots Keep Exploding in Northwestern Syria?

Syrian White Helmets rescuers inspect the site of an explosion at a temporary depot for weapons and explosive remnants of war in Sarmada, Idlib province (AFP)
Syrian White Helmets rescuers inspect the site of an explosion at a temporary depot for weapons and explosive remnants of war in Sarmada, Idlib province (AFP)
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Why Do ‘Temporary’ Weapons Depots Keep Exploding in Northwestern Syria?

Syrian White Helmets rescuers inspect the site of an explosion at a temporary depot for weapons and explosive remnants of war in Sarmada, Idlib province (AFP)
Syrian White Helmets rescuers inspect the site of an explosion at a temporary depot for weapons and explosive remnants of war in Sarmada, Idlib province (AFP)

The latest explosion in the city of Sarmada in northern Idlib province has renewed attention on the threat posed by weapons depots and explosive remnants of war across northwestern Syria.

Such explosions have increasingly endangered civilians and undermined stability, prompting growing calls from residents and local groups to dismantle the depots that have long caused anxiety and move them away from populated areas.

Fourteen people were killed and 11 others wounded in Wednesday’s explosion in Sarmada, near the Syrian-Turkish border north of Idlib, according to the Idlib Media Directorate.

The toll remained preliminary as civil defense teams continued searching the site and dealing with the aftermath of the blast, the directorate said.

Civil defense teams from the Emergency and Disaster Management Directorate headed to the site after the explosion, which preliminary information suggested was linked to munitions stored in the Burj al-Nimra area near Sarmada.

The teams began assessing and securing the site, searching for casualties and taking measures to address any potential repercussions, the civil defense said.

Syria’s Defense Ministry said the incident was caused by an explosion at a temporary depot used to collect weapons and explosive remnants of war before their removal.

“The explosion injured a number of ministry personnel, and our units are working in coordination with the relevant authorities to secure the site,” the ministry said.

Investigation and penalties

Sources at the Defense Ministry said the facility was a temporary depot used to collect unexploded ordnance, mines and other remnants of war recovered from areas of northern Idlib province before they were transferred to designated sites for detonation or disposal.

The ministry launched an investigation immediately to rule out external involvement or the presence of anyone implicated in the incident, the sources said.

Legal action against those responsible for the storage site, including possible disciplinary measures and penalties, would be determined by the investigation’s findings, they added.

The ministry sources nevertheless said the blast was most likely caused by a mine or munition stored inside the depot, particularly as some of the remnants had lain undisturbed for years.

The ministry’s explanations and subsequent measures do not absolve it of responsibility or criticism, military experts contacted by Asharq Al-Awsat said. They cited inadequate safety and storage standards, delays in relocating the stockpiles and a failure to move weapons and ammunition depots away from civilian areas.

Idlib province in northwestern Syria has become a frequent site of explosions involving weapons depots and the transportation of munitions.

Earlier in September, five people were killed when a vehicle loaded with ammunition exploded in the center of the city of Binnish.

That incident was preceded by an explosion at a depot containing rockets and ammunition north of the town of Kafr Takharim in rural Idlib. Five people were killed and several civilians wounded in the blast, which was also linked to work being carried out by a crew near the site.

A series of similar incidents was recorded last year. The most notable occurred near the western entrance to Idlib city on Aug. 14, 2025, when an arms depot exploded, triggering successive blasts involving rocket and shell remnants. Four people were killed and several civilians were wounded, according to the civil defense.

Other explosions in the town of Maarat Misrin killed 11 civilians and wounded dozens, as well as causing extensive property damage. The town of al-Foua also witnessed a series of blasts that deepened civilians’ fears over the continued presence of depots established near residential areas during the war against the government of Bashar al-Assad.

Military expert Diaa Qaddour attributed the recurring explosions to the large quantities of weapons, ammunition and explosive remnants left scattered across the country after 14 years of war and the fall of Assad’s government in late 2024.

Some came from depots belonging to the former government, while others were left by former armed factions and foreign groups or seized as spoils of war, he said.

Qaddour said the Syrian government and the Defense Ministry had sought to address the issue and secure the weapons, but the process remained slow and complex because of the vast size of the stockpiles, the need for a comprehensive survey and the presence of temporary storage sites near residential areas.

He attributed delays in removing the stockpiles from civilian areas to a shortage of specialized personnel and equipment.

“The lack of adequate safety measures plays a major role in the recurrence of these explosions,” Qaddour said.

Weapons and ammunition were often stored in unsecured facilities or near populated areas without sufficient protection from heat or ignition sources, he said. Other contributing factors included inadequate equipment, the handling of munitions by unqualified personnel and high summer temperatures.

Qaddour also pointed to locally manufactured weapons and munitions that were not designed for long-term storage and could not withstand changing conditions, transportation or poor storage.

“They are less stable, their quality varies, and heat and humidity accelerate their deterioration, making them increasingly prone to problems over time,” he said.

Possible Israeli role

Brigadier General Imad Shehoud, a military expert, did not rule out possible Israeli involvement in the latest explosion in Sarmada, despite the lack of evidence and the absence of any Israeli claim of responsibility.

“Although there is no evidence, the possibility remains that an Israeli aircraft squadron entered Syrian airspace in stealth mode and carried out the operation,” Shehoud said.

“The Israeli government has not issued any statement so far, but the reported presence of Israeli aircraft over southern Syria means the possibility cannot be excluded.”

Shehoud said the explosion coincided with an “intelligence report” indicating extensive reconnaissance activity by Israel’s 122nd Squadron, involving Nachshon Shavit, Nachshon Oron and Gulfstream G550 aircraft over Syrian and Lebanese territory in the hours before the blast.


Sept. 11’s Legacy Endures a Quarter-Century Later

A Palestinian man holds up a poster of ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein (L) and wanted al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden during a demonstration by some 1,000 people in the West Bank town of Hebron 10 April 2004, in support of the Iraqi resistance against the US-led coalition. (AFP via Getty Images)
A Palestinian man holds up a poster of ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein (L) and wanted al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden during a demonstration by some 1,000 people in the West Bank town of Hebron 10 April 2004, in support of the Iraqi resistance against the US-led coalition. (AFP via Getty Images)
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Sept. 11’s Legacy Endures a Quarter-Century Later

A Palestinian man holds up a poster of ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein (L) and wanted al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden during a demonstration by some 1,000 people in the West Bank town of Hebron 10 April 2004, in support of the Iraqi resistance against the US-led coalition. (AFP via Getty Images)
A Palestinian man holds up a poster of ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein (L) and wanted al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden during a demonstration by some 1,000 people in the West Bank town of Hebron 10 April 2004, in support of the Iraqi resistance against the US-led coalition. (AFP via Getty Images)

Rarely does a day deserve to be called “the day that shook the world.” September 11, 2001, claimed that distinction the moment it happened. At first, many could scarcely believe what they were seeing on their screens. The sight of civilian aircraft exploding into symbols of American power and success in New York and Washington was shocking and deadly. A quarter-century later, there is no denying the mark that day left on the US, the Middle East and the world.

The day set in motion by al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden brought down two governments: the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein’s government in Iraq. Afghanistan may have returned to life under a diluted form of Taliban rule, but the Middle East is still paying the price for the regional imbalances created when the US military uprooted Iraq’s Baathist government.

The fall of both governments was an enormous, unintended gift to Iran, now engaged in a military conflict with the United States.

The world was not accustomed to seeing the US attacked at home. On December 7, 1941, Japan attacked the US base at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii. Washington declared war on Japan the next day, and the rest is history.

On September 11, bin Laden brought the war onto American soil itself, prompting George W. Bush to launch a war against what he regarded as strongholds of terrorism.

It was no surprise that a wounded America, led by Bush, decided to topple the government of Mullah Mohammed Omar, who insisted on sheltering bin Laden and ignored calls to distance himself from the al-Qaeda leader or hand him over.

But the greater response came in the Middle East. In 2003, the region watched a US armored vehicle pull Saddam Hussein’s statue from its pedestal in Baghdad’s Firdos Square. It would later watch the hangman’s noose tighten around Saddam’s neck, alarming two men: Libya’s Moammar al-Gaddafi and Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Bin Laden deliberately chose mostly Saudis for the team that attacked New York and Washington, hoping to provoke a crisis and rupture relations between Washington and Riyadh. He did not get what he wanted, but the attacks posed a test across the Muslim world.

Many voices in the US called for terrorism to be uprooted at its source. The attacks unsettled the US and the West’s relations with many countries. They also strained relations between Western governments and Arab and Muslim communities, particularly as waves of migration increased. Today, the far-right is on the rise in several parts of Europe.

Yasser Arafat was living in Gaza that day. He was troubled by the attention focused on a few Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza who handed out sweets to celebrate the attacks and express their anger at American bias toward Israel.

Despite his advanced age, Arafat insisted on donating blood for those wounded in New York and Washington and went to a Gaza hospital. Some say that, in the first hours, he feared Palestinians might have been involved in carrying out the attacks.

Al-Gaddafi was also alarmed, although both he and Saddam initially imagined that the attacks would weaken the US. Al-Gaddafi asked Foreign Minister Abdulrahman Shalgham to arrange for Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to tell Bush that Libya was ready to normalize relations and open a new chapter with the US.

Bouteflika conveyed the Libyan position, but the US president told his visitor: “Tell al-Gaddafi that he must immediately surrender his nuclear program’s arsenal, or we will go and destroy it ourselves.”

Shalgham, having gauged the tense mood in America, told a meeting in Tripoli that the United States would occupy Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. The Libyan leader did not hesitate to bow to Bush’s demands.

The US used Iraq’s alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction as a pretext for attacking the country. It also claimed that the Iraqi government had ties to al-Qaeda. Many did not believe the claim, particularly given the stark differences between Saddam and bin Laden and the vastly different ideologies that guided them.

The prevailing impression was that the allegation had been fabricated. In fact, no relationship existed. But Saddam made a serious error in the 1990s, while bin Laden was in Sudan, when he sent a member of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood to meet him there. The al-Qaeda leader showed no interest in cooperating with what he called the “infidel Baathist regime.”

The Iraqi government tried again, sending an intelligence official named Farouk Hijazi. A meeting with bin Laden was arranged through Sudanese Islamist leader Hassan al-Turabi. After the meeting, which lasted more than three hours, Hijazi returned to Iraq and advised Saddam to abandon the idea of working with bin Laden, who reportedly demanded permission to establish independent camps on Iraqi soil.

The Iraqi government dropped the idea of cooperating with bin Laden. But US intelligence agencies exploited murky threads of contact between the two sides and used them to justify the invasion of Iraq.

The US toppled the Taliban and Saddam’s government and launched a prolonged hunt for al-Qaeda leaders.

On May 2, 2011, bin Laden, hiding in Abbottabad, Pakistan, was taken by surprise when US troops stormed his compound. America exacted revenge on the architect of the attacks on New York and Washington and disposed of his body at sea.

Osama bin Laden was gone, but al-Qaeda’s imprint exacted an enormous price from the countries of the Middle East.


What Options Does Hezbollah Have in Dealing with Israeli Escalation?

Portraits of current and former Iranian and Hezbollah leaders displayed at a rally, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, September 2, 2026. (Reuters)
Portraits of current and former Iranian and Hezbollah leaders displayed at a rally, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, September 2, 2026. (Reuters)
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What Options Does Hezbollah Have in Dealing with Israeli Escalation?

Portraits of current and former Iranian and Hezbollah leaders displayed at a rally, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, September 2, 2026. (Reuters)
Portraits of current and former Iranian and Hezbollah leaders displayed at a rally, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, September 2, 2026. (Reuters)

Hezbollah finds itself facing an increasingly difficult equation as Israeli escalation in South Lebanon has widened in recent days. How will the party respond to mounting Israeli strikes without being drawn into a broader confrontation that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be seeking either to postpone Israel’s elections or improve his prospects in them.

At the same time, Hezbollah is facing growing pressure from its support base, which is bearing the brunt of the strikes and demanding a response capable of deterring Tel Aviv. Yet the group’s options appear largely constrained by regional developments, particularly the course of US-Iran negotiations, as well as domestic political calculations in Lebanon.

A response could benefit Netanyahu

Sources familiar with Hezbollah’s position said the Iran-backed party has largely avoided signaling whether it intends to retaliate or continue exercising restraint and adhering unilaterally to the ceasefire agreement.

They told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah is currently focusing on holding the Lebanese authorities responsible for addressing the situation, noting that the group had previously called on the government to engage in dialogue over the expanding Israeli offensive and the failure of negotiations.

The sources see no indication so far that Hezbollah may make a military response. They argue that one objective of Israel’s widening offensive is to provoke Hezbollah and Iran into retaliating and trigger a broader war, which could benefit Netanyahu electorally or help him postpone the polls.

Limited ability to confront Israel

Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, took a different view, saying Hezbollah has no options left because its military power has collapsed, particularly after its decision to hand over Ali al-Taher — “a symbol of its pride” — to Israel rather than surrender it to the Lebanese army.

“Hezbollah lacks the ability not only to fight Israel, but even to provoke it,” Khashan told Asharq Al-Awsat. “It sent two drones, and we saw the results.”

The academic believes the party’s current priority is to retain its weapons domestically after its military role in confronting Israel has effectively ended, although Hezbollah “insists on living in denial.”

He expects Israeli escalation to continue ahead of the heated elections, saying it will not be confined to Lebanon but could extend to the West Bank, Gaza and southern Syria, amid continued threats of strikes against Iran.

“As for America’s ability to pressure Israel, it appears limited,” Khashan noted, saying this means an expansion of Israeli operations into Lebanon's Bekaa Valley cannot be ruled out.

Three options for Hezbollah

Retired Lebanese army Brig. Gen. Mounir Shehadeh offered a different assessment, identifying three options available to Hezbollah.

“The first is a broad, direct military response,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. “This is the option that could give Israel the pretext it is seeking to expand its target list, take the escalation deeper into Lebanon and perhaps strike Lebanese infrastructure. It is therefore a high-cost option.”

The second is to refrain entirely from responding. That also carries a price because Israel could interpret it as evidence that it can impose new realities without paying a cost, particularly following the escalation over Ali al-Taher and the continuing strikes, he explained.

The third option is a calibrated, limited response. “In my view, this is the most logical option if the group decides to respond,” Shehadeh said.

Such action would seek to establish the principle that “aggression carries a cost” without triggering an all-out confrontation, he went on to say. Hezbollah could simultaneously maintain a policy of ambiguity by declining to claim every operation, particularly if it wanted to preserve room for political maneuver.

Shehadeh said Hezbollah may be facing a more complicated calculation: whether to respond to Israel now or wait until the direction of US-Iran negotiations becomes clearer.

Waiting for the outcome of those talks would not necessarily mean surrendering or remaining passive, he noted. Instead, Hezbollah could defer a major response while keeping the option of limited retaliation open, since a broad confrontation at this stage could benefit Israel more than the party and give it an opportunity to widen the war before the regional picture becomes clearer.

Shehadeh expects Hezbollah to avoid, in the near term, initiating a major response that could trigger an all-out war. At the same time, the group cannot indefinitely tolerate continued Israeli escalation without responding.

He stressed that the most realistic scenario is to contain the escalation, monitor developments on the ground, take into account the US-Iran diplomatic track and keep open the option of a limited, carefully calibrated response if Israel crosses certain lines.