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Gold Set for Brightest Year Since 2010 on Rate Cuts, Safe-haven Demand

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO
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Gold Set for Brightest Year Since 2010 on Rate Cuts, Safe-haven Demand

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO
Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/FILE PHOTO

Gold prices were set to end a record-breaking year on a positive note on Tuesday as robust central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainties and monetary policy easing fuelled the safe-haven metal's strongest annual performance since 2010.

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,607.72 per ounce as of 1315 GMT, while US gold futures gained 0.1% to $2,620.40.

As one of the best-performing assets of 2024, bullion has gained more than 26% year-to-date, the biggest annual jump since 2010, and last scaled a record high of $2,790.15 on Oct. 31 after a series of record-breaking rallies throughout the year.

"Rising geopolitical risks, demand from central banks, easing of monetary policy by central banks globally, and the resumption of inflows into gold-linked Exchange-Traded Commodities (ETC) were the primary drivers of gold's rally in 2024," said Aneeka Gupta, director of macroeconomic research at WisdomTree, Reuters reported.

The metal is likely to remain supported in 2025 despite some headwinds from a stronger US dollar and a slower pace of easing by the Federal Reserve, Gupta added.

The US Fed delivered a third consecutive interest rate cut this month but flagged fewer rate cuts for 2025.

Donald Trump's incoming administration was also poised to significantly impact global economic policies, encompassing tariffs, deregulation, and tax amendments.

"Bullion bulls may enjoy another stellar year ahead if global geopolitical tensions are ramped up under Trump 2.0, potentially pushing investors towards this time-tested safe haven," said Exinity Group Chief Market Analyst Han Tan.

Bullion is often regarded as a hedge against geopolitical and economic risks and tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments.

"We expect gold to rally to $3,000/t oz on structurally higher central bank demand and a cyclical and gradual boost to ETF holdings from Fed rate cuts," said Daan Struyven, commodities strategist at Goldman Sachs.

Spot silver fell 0.3% to $28.85 per ounce, palladium was steady at $901.03 and platinum was little changed at $904.23.

Silver is headed for its best year since 2020, having added nearly 22% so far. Platinum and palladium are set for annual losses and have dipped over 8% and 17%, respectively.

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Business

‘AlUla Manifesto’ Ends Era of ‘Economic Dependency’

Group photo of participants at the Conference for Emerging Market Economies held in AlUla. X
Group photo of participants at the Conference for Emerging Market Economies held in AlUla. X
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‘AlUla Manifesto’ Ends Era of ‘Economic Dependency’

Group photo of participants at the Conference for Emerging Market Economies held in AlUla. X
Group photo of participants at the Conference for Emerging Market Economies held in AlUla. X

A joint statement issued by Mohammed Aljadaan, the Saudi Minister of Finance, and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Dr. Kristalina Georgieva following the second annual Conference for Emerging Market Economies held in AlUla could be described as the “AlUla Manifesto.”

A manifesto is a public, written declaration of intentions, and acts as a guide for action. At the heart of AlUla, this statement was not merely words; it was a “charter” laying out a roadmap to end the era of “economic dependency” and to establish a new phase in which emerging economies are the leaders, not the followers.

For an in-depth analysis of the outputs of this “manifesto,” a fundamental shift is revealed:

Emerging economies are no longer the “weak link” groaning under the weight of crises in advanced countries; rather, they have transformed into a “safety valve” now driving 70 percent of global growth.

The conference highlighted the exceptional resilience of emerging economies in the face of geopolitical storms, while issuing a firm warning that “this is no time for complacency.”

The closing statement issued by Aljadaan and Georgieva stressed that the conference, in its second edition, has “reaffirmed the value of a dedicated global forum focused on the shared challenges, opportunities, and aspirations of emerging market economies.”

They said “discussions focused on how emerging markets can navigate a global environment marked by persistent uncertainty, geopolitical shifts, evolving trade patterns, and rapid technological change.”

“These transformative trends highlight the urgency of strengthening policy frameworks and institutions to support resilience and leverage opportunities ahead,” they added.

According to Aljadaan and Georgieva, “the experience across many emerging markets shows that credible policy frameworks and institutional upgrades have helped achieve better inflation outcomes, maintain financial stability, and preserve market access, even amid heightened uncertainty.”

Aljadaan and Georgieva in the closing session of the conference. X

The joint statement also stressed that the real challenge is moving to the next phase of reforms that deliver higher, more sustained, and more job-rich growth.

“Unleashing the private sector will be central to this effort, including through deepening financial markets, reducing barriers to entrepreneurship and investment, and harnessing artificial intelligence by investing in digital infrastructure and equipping young people with skills necessary to thrive in the evolving global job market,” it said.

The conference also sent a message that in a world of shifting trade and investment patterns, deeper intra-regional and inter-regional integration offers big opportunities.

“Boosting trade and strengthening regional cooperation remain critical for emerging markets as they adapt to the changing global economic landscape,” said Aljadaan and Georgieva.

The Saudi minister and the IMF managing director also wrote an analysis published by “Project Syndicate” that said: “It used to be that when advanced economies sneezed, emerging markets caught a cold.”

“That is no longer true,” they added.

According to the analysis, “following recent global shocks, such as the post-pandemic inflation surge and a new wave of tariffs, emerging markets have held up well. Inflation has continued to slow, currencies have generally retained their value, and debt issuance costs have remained at manageable levels.”

But Aljadaan and Georgieva warned that “while emerging markets have made great strides in improving their policy frameworks and enhancing credibility, this is no time for complacency.”

They called for reforms in a turbulent world and urged policymakers to position their economies to take advantage of the potential productivity gains from AI. “Saudi Arabia, India, and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, for example, have unveiled impressive infrastructure investments that will lay the foundation for AI adoption for decades to come.”

They concluded their statement by saying that emerging market economies are coming together to discuss how they can leverage their growing scale and build on their hard-won resilience.

Business

PIF Forum Yields $16 Bn in MoUs

Raid Ismail, head of direct investments for the Middle East and North Africa at the Public Investment Fund, speaks during a session (X)
Raid Ismail, head of direct investments for the Middle East and North Africa at the Public Investment Fund, speaks during a session (X)
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PIF Forum Yields $16 Bn in MoUs

Raid Ismail, head of direct investments for the Middle East and North Africa at the Public Investment Fund, speaks during a session (X)
Raid Ismail, head of direct investments for the Middle East and North Africa at the Public Investment Fund, speaks during a session (X)

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) closed the fourth edition of its Private Sector Forum with a slate of deals that underscored its growing pull with investors, announcing the signing of more than 135 memorandums of understanding worth over 60 billion riyals (about $16 billion).

The agreements reflect rising confidence in the Saudi business climate and the fund’s ability to generate high-quality investment opportunities that attract both local and foreign capital.

The forum’s final day opened with a discussion on flexibility, risk reduction, and innovative financing, focusing on how to turn strategies into bankable projects and investment opportunities that can draw in the private sector and deepen its role in the economy.

Speakers highlighted the fund’s central role in enabling and developing strategic sectors, investing in large-scale projects that help create a more attractive business environment.

These efforts aim to strengthen participation by the domestic private sector, including small and medium-sized enterprises, while also drawing foreign investment.

In a session on the Saudi sovereign approach to value creation, Raid Ismail, head of direct investments for the Middle East and North Africa at PIF, outlined the “Fund Way” methodology launched in 2019 to boost economic value across portfolio companies.

The approach is built on independent governance and a clear operating framework.

Ismail said the fund remains focused on delivering economic and social impact and sustainable growth across all its investments.

He traced PIF’s investment journey, from selecting priority sectors and forming partnerships with the private sector, to establishing companies, strengthening their governance and operational efficiency, and ultimately exiting investments.

Artificial intelligence featured prominently in the discussions. Tareq Amin, chief executive of Humain, said the company’s approach to AI applications is rooted in rethinking how problems are solved and how organizations prepare for the future.

He noted that Saudi Arabia has strong AI infrastructure, suitable human capital, and ample energy resources, and highlighted the generative AI operating systems and applications the company is developing.

Another panel focused on local content and its impact on the private sector, stressing the importance of building high-quality local content to support a strong national economy, accelerate diversification, and sustain growth.

The discussion also highlighted Saudi Arabia’s efforts to develop policies and regulations that encourage higher local content.

Panelists said increasing local content helps raise the private sector’s contribution to gross domestic product, reduce reliance on foreign supply chains, develop national industries and products, improve competitiveness, expand into new markets, and create jobs.

The session also highlighted PIF’s role in boosting local content through a range of programs and initiatives, including the Musahama local content development program, contractor financing, the industrial accelerator, supplier development, the private sector platform, and the Musahama design competition.

Spending by the fund and its portfolio companies on local content exceeded 590 billion riyals between 2020 and 2024.

Financing solutions were another key theme, with discussions on how to develop funding tools aligned with Saudi Arabia’s economic growth and ensure access to finance for large projects, small and medium-sized enterprises, and entrepreneurs.

Over the past five years, PIF has helped unlock priority strategic sectors across the kingdom.

It invested about 750 billion riyals domestically in new projects between 2021 and 2025. It contributed a cumulative 910 billion riyals ($242.6 billion) to Saudi Arabia’s real non-oil GDP between 2021 and 2024, accounting for around 10% of non-oil GDP in 2024.

The fourth edition of the forum builds on the momentum of previous years. Attendance has tripled since 2023, rising from 4,000 participants to 12,000 in 2025, while the number of exhibition booths by PIF portfolio companies more than doubled to over 100.

Business

Iraq Seeks Saudi Firm List to Streamline Iraqi Exports

Jadidat Arar border crossing, the logistics gateway between Saudi Arabia and Iraq (SPA)
Jadidat Arar border crossing, the logistics gateway between Saudi Arabia and Iraq (SPA)
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Iraq Seeks Saudi Firm List to Streamline Iraqi Exports

Jadidat Arar border crossing, the logistics gateway between Saudi Arabia and Iraq (SPA)
Jadidat Arar border crossing, the logistics gateway between Saudi Arabia and Iraq (SPA)

The Iraqi government is moving to tighten the framework for exporting its goods to Saudi Arabia by compiling a list of Saudi companies interested in importing Iraqi products, a step aimed at streamlining trade procedures and boosting shipments to the kingdom.

The list will be circulated to all relevant Iraqi authorities and used as a reference in the export process, according to the information.

Trade between the two countries remains heavily tilted in Saudi Arabia’s favor. In 2024, Saudi exports to Iraq reached 6.5 billion riyals ($1.7 billion), while imports from Iraq totaled 180.4 million riyals ($48.1 million), resulting in a trade surplus of 6.3 billion riyals ($1.6 billion).

Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Foreign Trade has informed the Saudi private sector of a request from Iraqi authorities to provide a list of companies willing to import goods from Iraq.

Push to raise Iraqi exports

The Iraqi government has also asked for details on Saudi market requirements and standards, seeking clarity that would allow it to set specifications for products, goods, and services and, in turn, increase its exports to the kingdom.

Fuel products, oils, and mineral waxes accounted for the largest share of Iraqi exports to Saudi Arabia at 49.1%. Aluminum and aluminum products accounted for 32.7%, while pulp from wood or other fibrous cellulosic materials accounted for 7.3%. The remaining share was spread across other goods and services.

Overall trade between Saudi Arabia and Iraq continues to expand in both volume and diversity, with Saudi exports clearly dominant. Both sides have stepped up efforts to ease trade flows and improve infrastructure to support more sustainable growth.

Border bottleneck eased

As part of its efforts to smooth access for Saudi products to regional markets, the General Authority for Foreign Trade recently stepped in to resolve a technical and logistical issue that had been hampering Saudi exporters at the Jadidat Arar border crossing with Iraq.

The intervention was aimed at safeguarding export flows through the only land route linking the two countries, which has grown in importance after an 81.3% rise in truck traffic in the first half of 2024.

The authority resolved a dispute over the Iraqi side’s refusal to accept electronic authentication of documents, reaffirming its commitment to strengthening trade ties with Baghdad.

The issue had been flagged as a recurring obstacle for Saudi companies exporting to Iraq via the crossing, prompting swift action by the authority to clear the backlog and ease private sector access to the Iraqi market.

Strategic gateway

Opened in 2020, the Jadidat Arar crossing is the sole economic and logistics gateway between Saudi Arabia and Iraq. It has played a key role in cutting export costs by 15% and reducing shipping times to less than 48 hours.

The Arar Chamber of Commerce said in a recent statistical report that total truck movements, arrivals, and departures combined reached about 33,300 in the first half of 2024.

By comparison, the number of trucks stood at about 4,084 in the first half of 2021, rose to 12,954 in the same period of 2022, and increased further to 18,729 in the first half of 2023.