Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
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Dollar Strengthens on Elevated US Bond Yields, Tariff Talks

A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo
A teller sorts US dollar banknotes inside the cashier's booth at a forex exchange bureau in downtown Nairobi, Kenya February 16, 2024. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya/File photo

The dollar rose for a second day on Wednesday on higher US bond yields, sending other major currencies to multi-month lows, with a report that Donald Trump was mulling emergency measures to allow for a new tariff program also lending support.

The already-firm dollar climbed higher on Wednesday after CNN reported that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency as legal justification for a large swath of universal tariffs on allies and adversaries.

The dollar index was last up 0.5% at 109.24, not far from the two-year peak of 109.58 it hit last week, Reuters reported.

Its gains were broad-based, with the euro down 0.43% at $1.0293 and Britain's pound under particular pressure, down 1.09% at $1.2342.

Data on Tuesday showed US job openings unexpectedly rose in November and layoffs were low, while a separate survey showed US services sector activity accelerated in December and a measure of input prices hit a two-year high - a possible inflation warning.

Bond markets reacted by sending 10-year Treasury yields up more than eight basis points on Tuesday, with the yield climbing to 4.728% on Wednesday.

"We're getting very strong US numbers... which has rates going up," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street, pushing expectations of Fed rate cuts out to the northern summer or beyond.

"There's even the discussion about, will they cut, or may they even hike? The narrative has changed quite significantly."

Markets are now pricing in just 36 basis points of easing from the Fed this year, with a first cut in July.

US private payrolls data due later in the session will be eyed for further clues on the likely path of US rates.

Traders are jittery ahead of key US labor data on Friday and the inauguration of Donald Trump on Jan. 20, with his second US presidency expected to begin with a flurry of policy announcements and executive orders.

The move in the pound drew particular attention, as it came alongside a sharp sell-off in British stocks and government bonds. The 10-year gilt yield is at its highest since 2008.

Higher yields in general are more likely to lead to a stronger currency, but not in this case.

"With a non-data driven rise in yields that is not driven by any positive news - and the trigger seems to be inflation concern in the US, and Treasuries are selling off - the correlation inverts," said Francesco Pesole, currency analyst at ING.

"That doesn't happen for every currency, but the pound remains more sensitive than most other currencies to a rise in yields, likely because there's still this lack of confidence in the sustainability of budget measures."

Markets did not welcome the budget from Britain's new Labor government late last year.

Elsewhere, the yen sagged close to the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year, touching 158.55, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months.

Japan's consumer sentiment deteriorated in December, a government survey showed, casting doubt on the central bank's view that solid household spending will underpin the economy and justify a rise in interest rates.

China's yuan hit 7.3322 per dollar, the lowest level since September 2023.



India’s Modi Lauds Interim Trade Pact After US Tariff Rollback

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)
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India’s Modi Lauds Interim Trade Pact After US Tariff Rollback

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media before the budget session of Parliament at Parliament House in New Delhi, India, 29 January 2026. (EPA)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday hailed an interim trade agreement with the United States, saying it would bolster global growth and deepen economic ties between the two countries.

The pact cuts US "reciprocal" duties on Indian products to 18 percent from 25 percent, and commits India to large purchases of US energy and industrial goods.

US President Donald Trump, while announcing the deal Tuesday, had said Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil over the war in Ukraine.

The deal eases months of tensions over India's oil purchases -- which Washington says fund a conflict it is trying to end -- and restores the close ties between Trump and the man he describes as "one of my greatest friends."

"Great news for India and USA!" Modi said on X on Saturday, praising US President Donald Trump's "personal commitment" to strengthening bilateral ties.

The agreement, he said, reflected "the growing depth, trust and dynamism" of their partnership.

Modi's remarks came hours after Trump issued an executive order scrapping an additional 25 percent levy imposed over New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil, in a step to implement the trade deal announced this week.

Modi, who has faced criticism at home about opening access of Indian agricultural markets to the United States and terms on oil imports, did not mention Russian oil in his statement.

"This framework will also strengthen resilient and trusted supply chains and contribute to global growth," he said.

It would also create fresh opportunities for Indian farmers, entrepreneurs and fishermen under the "Make in India" initiative.

In a separate statement, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the pact would "open a $30 trillion market for Indian exporters".

Goyal also said the deal protects India's sensitive agricultural and dairy products, including maize, wheat, rice, soya, poultry and milk.

Other terms of the agreement include the removal of tariffs on certain aircraft and parts, according to a separate joint statement released Friday by the White House.

The statement added that India intends to purchase $500 billion of US energy products, aircraft and parts, precious metals, tech products and coking coal over the next five years.

The shift marks a significant reduction in US tariffs on Indian products, down from a rate of 50 percent late last year.

Washington and New Delhi are expected to sign a formal trade deal in March.


Gold Bounces Back on Softer Dollar, US-Iran Concerns; Silver Rebounds

Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
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Gold Bounces Back on Softer Dollar, US-Iran Concerns; Silver Rebounds

Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
Gold and silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth

Gold rebounded on Friday and was set for a weekly gain, helped by bargain hunting, a slightly weaker dollar and lingering concerns over US-Iran talks in Oman, while silver recovered from a 1-1/2-month low.

Spot gold rose 3.1% to $4,916.98 per ounce by 09:31 a.m. ET (1431 GMT), recouping losses posted during a volatile Asia session that followed a fall of 3.9% on Thursday. Bullion was headed for a weekly gain of about 1.3%.

US gold futures for April delivery gained 1% to $4,939.70 per ounce.

The US dollar index fell 0.3%, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for the overseas buyers.

"The gold market is seeing perceived bargain hunting from bullish traders," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

Iran and the US started high-stakes negotiations via Omani mediation on Friday to try to overcome sharp differences over Tehran's nuclear program.

Wyckoff said gold's rebound lacks momentum and the metal is unlikely to break records without a major geopolitical trigger.

Gold, a traditional safe haven, does well in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Spot silver rose 5.3% to $74.98 an ounce after dipping below $65 earlier, but was still headed for its biggest weekly drop since 2011, down over 10.6%, following steep losses last week as well.

"What we're seeing in silver is huge speculation on the long side," said Wyckoff, adding that after years in a boom cycle, gold and silver now appear to be entering a typical commodity bust phase.

CME Group raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures for a third time in two weeks on Thursday to curb risks from heightened market volatility.

Spot platinum added 3.2% to $2,052 per ounce, while palladium gained 4.9% to $1,695.18. Both were down for the week.


Europe, Türkiye Agree to Work Toward Updating Customs Union

European Union (R) and Turkish flags fly at the business and financial district of Levent in Istanbul, Türkiye September 4, 2017. REUTERS/Osman Orsal
European Union (R) and Turkish flags fly at the business and financial district of Levent in Istanbul, Türkiye September 4, 2017. REUTERS/Osman Orsal
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Europe, Türkiye Agree to Work Toward Updating Customs Union

European Union (R) and Turkish flags fly at the business and financial district of Levent in Istanbul, Türkiye September 4, 2017. REUTERS/Osman Orsal
European Union (R) and Turkish flags fly at the business and financial district of Levent in Istanbul, Türkiye September 4, 2017. REUTERS/Osman Orsal

The European enlargement chief and the Turkish foreign minister said on Friday they had agreed to continue work toward modernizing the EU-Türkiye customs union and to improve its implementation, Reuters reported.

European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos met Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in the capital Ankara on Friday.

"They shared a willingness to work for paving the way for the modernization of the Customs Union and to achieve its full potential in order to support competitiveness, and economic security and resilience for both sides," they said in a joint statement afterward.

The sides also welcomed the gradual resumption of European Investment Bank (EIB) operations in Türkiye and said they intended to support projects across the country and neighbouring regions in cooperation with the bank.